Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. I had a great time in Philadelphia, that city gets a bad reputation because of the crazy fans but there are some great bars and restaurants for going out. It also has a certain charm to it. I haven’t been following NBA much over the weekend so it feels like I have a lot to catch up on in regards to injuries. Tonight we get a perfectly sized 9 game slate and looking ahead it looks like the NBA schedule gods spread out the games a little better than last week. Let’s start this weekly grind and dive in.
Players Listed Out (only listing significant players):
- Bam Adebayo
- Jimmy Butler
- Ja Morant
- Luca Doncic
- Lamelo Ball
- Devin Booker
- Richaun Holmes
- OG Anunoby
- Kevin Porter
- Kyle Kuzma
- Jalen Green
- Precious Achiuwa
Players Listed Questionable (only listing significant players):
- Deandre Ayton
- Paul George (Doubtful)
- Jaylen Brown (Probable)
- Jaren Jackson Jr.
- Steven Adams (Doubtful)
- Terry Rozier (Probable)
- Will Barton
- PJ Washington (Probable)
As you can see, these injury lists seem to get bigger and bigger every slate. The Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson and Will Barton statuses are what we will need to monitor as those injuries would open up some value. Everything else we have a pretty good feel as to who’s going to be in or out but it’s NBA DFS so there’s always an unforeseen injury that pops up with the afternoon injury report.
+EV Strategy:
- Tonight’s slate looks like there will be a major edge for those of us that use late swap. The games are staggered throughout the night. The last 2 games of the night have some major injury news that we are waiting on (Will Barton, Deandre Ayton, Paul George). In these cases I actually like when the news drops after lock since it gives us a nice ownership discount on some great plays. It does make the slate a little more complicated but that’s how we can get an edge when playing NBA DFS.
GPP Game Stacks:
- Sacramento vs. Toronto – This game stuck out right away. The total is set at 221 and it’s expected to be a close game. There should be some ownership on this game but with 9 games and a lot of good plays on the slate I don’t think we need to worry about ownership too much. The Sacramento side has a lot of potential value. Bagley is a great play but he will be chalky. He’s just incorrectly priced at $3800 on DK even if he gets only 24 minutes. The rotations for Sacramento are somewhat hard to predict right now but this should lead to low ownership. I like Alex Len tonight and it looks like he may come in single digit owned (I’ll go into more detail on this below). Barnes will also be somewhat chalky but looks like a solid option at a $5100 price tag and we also have De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton who shouldn’t garner much ownership but have a lot of upside at their respective prices. Pairing the Sacramento plays with a few Toronto plays makes sense in GPPs and nobody on Toronto should have high ownership outside of Chris Boucher. Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes would be my favorite plays on the Toronto side, they each are seeing close to 40 minutes nightly. In a pace up spot versus Sacramento with 40 minute potential there’s some major upside. In summary, tons of plays in this game to mix and match in you GPP lineups. My favorite plays would be Bagley, Len, Haliburton, Siakam and Fox in that order.
GPP Plays:
- Alex Len – Let me start by saying Alex Len may have cost me more money than anyone on the planet. The guy always disappoints. However, tonight it looks like he’s getting no ownership (I do expect him to at least get 5% ownership once lock comes around). He’s priced at $3300 on DK, so even in 20 minutes he could pay off that salary. Len’s at .89 fantasy points per minute on the season and is typically close to a fantasy point per minute guy. The big question mark with Len is his minutes. Last game he played 24 minutes but didn’t get his last rotation because of a blow out. Even in 24 minutes Len is a great value play at a $3300 price tag. If Len ends up in the 28-30 minute range he looks like one of the best plays on the slate and we may be getting him at single digit ownership. It’s always scary to play this guy but if he’s coming in low owned I’ll be well overweight in GPPs (just close your eyes and pray).
- Nikola Jokic – I’ve noticed a trend that whenever Jokic is on the slate I tend to have a good night. I’ve been playing him all year and he has yet to let me down. The crazy part about Jokic is he never has high ownership. Tonight his ownership is projected around 15%, which is very reasonable for the best fantasy producer on the planet. Barton is listed as questionable, if we look at Nikola’s rates this year without Barton and Michael Porter your eyes will pop out. He’s at 1.9 fantasy points per minute and 35% usage. Some more numbers to throw at your regarding Jokic, in his last 4 games he’s been over 60 fantasy points in each of them. He’s priced up at $12K on Draftkings but I still feel this is a little too cheap for the consistent production we’ve seen from Jokic this season. Also, the Wiz just don’t have a Center on the roster that can stop him. Gafford doesn’t have the strength and Harrell is undersized. I’ll be well overweight in my GPP exposures to Jokic (it’s looking like a double Center night on DK).
- Spencer Dinwiddie – Dinwiddie feels a little sneaky tonight and I like pairing him with Jokic in hopes the Denver vs. Washington game stays close. Dinwiddie’s rates with Kuzma off the floor are 1.05 fantasy points per minute and 25% usage (Kuzma has been ruled out tonight). That’s a 4% usage bump and a .1 fantasy point per minute bump to his normal rates. In addition, he seems to have a higher minutes ceiling of late as just 2 games ago he played 35 minutes. At a $5200 price tag he provides a high floor and a high ceiling and the kicker is he’s only projected for 10% ownership. I love me some Dinwiddie tonight and will be getting well overweight in my MME portfolio this evening.
GPP Fades:
- John Collins – As of now John Collins is projected for over 20% ownership. He’s priced appropriately at $7200 but the ownership is due to a match-up with Houston. This fade is more due to how much good value we have on the slate. I like stars and scrubs builds a lot more than the balanced builds this evening. Collins does project well but at the Power Forward position on DK there are so many other plays I like (Porzingis, Marcus Morris, Giannis, Boucher, Bagley) that I’m fine getting away from Collins in this spot. It feels like Collins and Capela somewhat cap each other’s upside for GPPs.
After digging in I’m loving tonight’s slate. There are so many good plays that there’s going to have to be some great plays at really low ownership this evening. I haven’t played NBA DFS for a few nights so I may play a little heavier tonight to scratch that itch. Good luck to everyone and let’s make some money tonight.
Max
