Whew, last night was wild. I got a lot of things right but a few big things wrong. I had the right stack in Lakers v Charlotte but my bring back in most lineups was Miles Bridges instead of Lamelo. I also had a ton of Jokic last night but very little Steph. This is GPP life as it’s so hard to get everything right, especially on some of the bigger slates. It ended up being a profitable night with some late night success so we live to play another day. Tonight we have a 3 gamer. It’s funny how I use to hate small slates and sometimes didn’t even play them. Nowadays, they are easier on me as the time I have to put in to get ready for the slate is much less. With my life being crazy busy with a full time job and two kids a 3 game slate is music to my ears.
+EV Strategy:
- This is a pretty fun 3 game slate with a few stand out values that I’m sure will be extremely chalky (Drummond & Portis). I don’t see any lock button plays as the price tag on Drummond has come up enough where we can start to consider a fade if he’s going to be 70%+ owned. We also have 1 early game and 2 late games so we should take advantage of late swap if we get any unexpected news. Also, if your early plays don’t pan out you should be swapping off of chalk to give yourself a chance to cash.
- Injuries – There are a few injuries to keep our eye on as Seth Curry is Questionable. If he gets ruled out we should have some nice Philly value. In addition, Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) and D. Hunter have popped up as Questionable on the injury report. If they both get ruled out we could see Cam Reddish or Danilo be great value options. Monitor news but we may not get this news until after lock so plan accordingly.
Game Stacks:
- My favorite game stack for GPP purposes is Portland vs. Los Angeles. There are a lot of well priced plays here that I don’t think get much ownership for a 3 game slate. We have some low owned pay-up options to spend on in PG-13 and Dame but I’m not focused on the spend up options in this game. I love the mid range value here. On Portland we have Mccollum, Norm Powell and Covington all with great prices for the upside they bring. On the Clippers side we have RJAX, Zubac and Mann as some mid range plays with plenty of upside. I’ll be stacking this game in a number of ways tonight and in addition it will give your rosters flexibility should late news drop since it’s the last game of the evening.
GPP Plays:
- Donovan Mitchell – Although there aren’t too many plays I like in the Utah v Atlanta game, I always love playing a low owned Donovan Mitchell. He’s projected for a moderate 20% ownership which is lower than some of the other high priced spend ups. In his last 3 games he has usage rates of 37%, 38% and 45%. With that kind of usage all it takes is a decent shooting performance from DMitch for him to smash a $9100 price tag. Fire him up in GPPs.
- Cam Reddish – This play is contingent on news but if Bogdan or Hunter (or both) get ruled out then Reddish would be a great value play. Reddish is at .85 fpm and 23% usage on the year. He’s priced at $3800 and would fill an ugly SF position on Draftkings. He also may come in at low ownership should we get news after lock on the Atlanta injuries. If we get late news that Reddish is starting we get one of the best plays of the slate at low ownership.
- Norm Powell – There are a few reasons to like Powell tonight but mainly he’s just underpriced. At a price tag of $5200 he has major upside if his shot’s falling. On the year he’s at .96 fpm and I have him projected for low to mid 30’s in minutes. He’s the type of play I like – high floor and high ceiling and the ownership is moderate since Korkmaz is currently the chalk at Small Forward. Norm is also in my favorite game of the night so I’ll have a good amount of him paired with some bring backs on the Clippers side.
Fades:
- There are some chalky plays that I just don’t have the balls to fully fade in Portis or Drummond. The price tag on Drummond has come up quite a bit so foul trouble or a blowout are real possibilities in a match-up vs. Milwaukee. I’ll probably be just slightly under the field on Drummond as I do see paths for him disappointing at a $7700 tag.
- My main fade of the night is going to be Furkan Korkmaz. The ownership here is getting a little out of hand as I’m seeing his projected ownership above 50%. The reason for the high ownership is he projects well but also there just aren’t any other standout plays at the Small Forward Position on DK. As I mentioned above, I love pivoting off Korkmaz to Reddish or Norm Powell as other plays around this price range. The Philly side today scares me since I can see Milwaukee running away with this one. If we are looking for lower owned pivots off Korkmaz on the same team, I’m still on board with Seth Curry as his ownership may drop since he’s currently listed as Questionable.
This should be a fun 3 game slate tonight. On small slates like this don’t be afraid to take some stands or make some educated guesses as to how a particular game plays out (I’ll be playing this as if the Bucks blow out the Sixers tonight). Let’s make some money tonight and enjoy the games.
Max
