Hope everyone had a fun and profitable weekend. I played a little DFS this weekend and got the bad end of variance with a lot of AD on Saturday night. This guy has to be the softest player in the league and I’m guessing he must go to the locker room close to 10% of his games played. I’m honestly starting to think you have to bake that into projections, maybe I’m still tilted. Anyway, onto tonight’s slate, and it’s a fun 8 gamer so let’s dig in.
+EV Strategy:
On a slate like tonight with so many good plays I’m fine fading some of the chalk but I’d make sure we get some Philly plays in our lineups. They are so shorthanded and have so much usage to go around that we will probably need at least 2 plays from this game in every lineup. However, I don’t like the Knicks pricing on the other side of this game and it could be slow/ugly. There also may be some Philly pieces that come in low owned (Maxey/Curry) that we can sprinkle into lineups to differentiate/get some leverage off the chalk Philly plays. I’ll be playing a lot of Philly but not game stacking this one.
GAME STACKS:
- LA v Charlotte – This is my favorite game of the night and it also happens to be the late night hammer. Most likely Westbrook and AD will be somewhat chalky (although I’m sure some will be scared off AD due to leaving early last game), however I don’t think they’ll be massive chalk. What I like about this stack is the Charlotte bring backs will all be low owned. Lamelo has insane upside should this game stay close but my favorite bring back on Charlotte is Miles Bridges. I’ve become a believer in Bridges as he’s at 1.2 fpm on the year and playing big minutes. If this game stays close it’s probably Lamelo and/or Bridges who put up a big game. I like running stacks from this game mixed with some cheaper Philly pieces.
- Miami v Denver – I know this one has a low total but there is a lot to like here. The Denver side is shorthanded with MPJ out tonight. This gives a big boost to Jokic and Barton. I think they may come in at moderate ownership as well since they are in a perceived bad matchup with a low total. For reference, Jokic is at 2.35 fpm with a 39% usage without MPJ this year, I know those rates aren’t sustainable but this goes to show that everything will flow through him for Denver. The Miami side of this game should be low owned. I like Herro as a bring back as he plays the last 17 minutes of each half. If this game stays close he should get 34 minutes and he has a lot of upside at a $6600 price tag. Also, (and this is ugly) but Duncan Robinson is too cheap for his upside on DK. He’s priced at $3800 and just 2 games ago hoisted up 17 threes. This is just an upside play but I think a sprinkle of DROB in large field GPPs makes sense.
GPP Plays:
- Nikola Jokic – I love the Joker tonight and I think his ownership may stay in check mainly because we have Drummond/Kaminsky/AD that fill Center spots as well. Also, people may get scared off by a match-up with Miami. I mentioned the Joker’s crazy rates this year without MPJ above, but looking back to last year without MPJ and Jamal Murray he was still at 1.8 fpm with 33% usage. I’m hopeful we get low ownership here but either way I’ll be forcing a lot of Jokic into my lineups.
- Seth Curry – Initial projections show Curry as one of the lower owned pieces on the Philly side mainly because of his price tag ($5800). Here are his rates this year without Tobias and Embiid: 1.17 fpm with a 26% usage; last year he was at .98 fpm w/ 19% usage. He should have a bigger role this year so I think the usage increase without Tobias and Drummond is sustainable. He’s going to be a focal point of the offense and has a lot of upside at a $5800 price tag. I see initial ownership projections on him at under 10% and if that’s the case I’ll be well overweight in this spot as leverage off some of the chalkier Philly pieces.
- Anthony Edwards – I like this match-up for Anthony Edwards since KAT should have his hands full with Adams down low. So far through 8 games Edwards hasn’t shot less than 19 field goal attempts in a game. That’s a lot of potential opportunity if he gets hot. His rates without D’Angelo Russell on the season are 1.18 fpm with a 33% usage rate (that usage rate is actually higher than KAT). Lastly, his ownership projection is right around 5%. I’ll be getting overweight in large field GPPs as a low owned play with major upside.
FADES:
- Jordan Poole – He’s been hot for a few games now and the minutes seem to be creeping up, however he mainly gets his fantasy points through scoring and threes. Any chalky player that is solely a scorer I never mind fading at high ownership. Also, I don’t feel the minutes here are as solidified as everyone thinks. If he’s cold in the first half I can see Kerr playing a closing lineup that doesn’t include Poole. Also, we have Curry and Wiggins who get usage with the starters so it could just be a night where Steph or Wiggins get the usage. I see a lot of other plays I feel more confident in their floors so if Poole is going to be 20% owned I’m fine fading him.
I’ll mention again that there are a ton of high upside plays tonight. Remember that we don’t need to fade all the chalk but make sure that your lineups as a whole aren’t all the chalk plays. If your playing high owned Philly plays make sure to differentiate lineups at other spots. Hope everyone enjoys the games and we start the weekend off with a profitable night.
Max
