I can’t believe it’s almost December, where has this year gone? Quick recap of last night – I broke even on the night with my cash lineup cashing in most contests but no big GPP sweats. I feel like I’m getting close in GPPs as most of the plays listed in the article/core plays hit but I had a bit too much Caris Levert to ruin my night. Also, looking back Jonas Valanciunas was a great play at sub 1% ownership and a cheap price tag. I did have some shares but couldn’t quite piece it all together last night. Let’s move onto Tuesday’s 5 game slate.
+EV Strategy:
- It’s a good time to look up your Rototracker stats and see where you’re at going into the last month of the year. Set a goal for yourself of where you want to be come January 1st. I’ve set a goal to win 1 more large field GPP in December and plan on entering more GPPs to reach that goal by the end of 2021. Analyze your Rototracker results to see what type of contests or sports you’re best in. For example, I’ve found that by far my most profitable sport/contest is NBA GPPs, therefore I’ll be focusing more energy on these particular contests moving forward. Doing analysis on your past DFS results is extremely important and can help in your contest selection and becoming more profitable going forward.
Game Stacks:
There isn’t a game I’m crazy about tonight since it seems like all the games have 1 team I like and 1 team I’m not crazy about the pricing or ownership. There is one game that has a number of GPP plays and more plays could open up pending the Gary Trent injury news.
- Memphis vs. Toronto – This is my favorite game of the night, mainly because I like a lot of plays on Memphis with Ja Morant being ruled out tonight. There is a lot of usage to go around and I don’t feel the prices have adjusted for the Ja injury. Memphis has played in a few blowouts lately which is why the minutes look low for everyone on this team the past few games. For GPPs, it looks like there are going to be some low owned pieces on the Memphis side. Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson both get huge usage and fantasy point per minute bumps with Ja being ruled out (Dillon Brooks’ at 1.34 FPM with 35% usage and Jaren Jackson is at 1.38 FPM with 33% usage on the year without Morant). I also like Bane, Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson as potential GPP plays on Memphis as part of a game stack. The issue is the pricing on the Toronto side seems a bit high. We are waiting on Gary Trent news, if he plays he’s be a great bring back option and if he’s out we should get some value that potentially opens up in Svi. You can do bring backs with Van Vleet (getting high ownership) or Scottie Barnes but I’ll have limited exposure to each of these Toronto spend-ups in GPPs.
GPP Plays:
- Dillon Brooks (Large Field GPP Only) – I mentioned this play above and I’ll go into a little more detail here. He is priced up at $7,000 which may seem like a lot for Dillon Brooks. Based on his usage and fantasy point per minute numbers without Morant, I still feel there’s a lot of upside at this price tag. As mentioned above, he’s at 1.34 FPM and 35% usage without Ja and looking back at last year, Brooks was at 1 FPM with 30% usage. It makes sense that his usage is up this year since Valanciunas is no longer on the Grizzlies. If this game is close I think the minutes will be back up to 32-34 minutes. At projected ownership under 5%, I’ll be well overweight in my GPP exposures.
- Steph Curry – Based on early projections Steph Curry is coming in around 10% projected ownership. He does have the highest price tag on the slate ($11,400 on DK), but that price tag is warranted based on his recent performance. In the last month Steph is at 1.58 Fantasy Points Per Minute and 30% usage. He’s been “On Fire” to use a phrase from my old NBA Jam days. The match-up is difficult but when Steph is hot I’m not sure anyone on the planet can stop him. I’d argue that i would rather play Steph in big games and tonight feels like a big game with the 2 best teams in the Western Conference squaring off. The Golden State vs. Phoenix game also has one of the highest totals on the slate at 220. With ownership somewhat spread out on the spend-up options, I’ll be getting overweight on Steph in this spot.
Fades:
- Fred Van Vleet – I’m not sure how accurate ownership is this early in the day but it’s showing FVV at almost 30% ownership. When I see this I expect him to have a discounted price tag but to my surprise he’s priced up at $8700. A 40 point fantasy game isn’t going to cut it at that salary. I looked at his rates with Siakam on the court and he’s only at 1 FPM and 23% usage. He’s getting all the minutes he can handle of late but I don’t see much upside at this price tag. If FVV is anywhere close to 30% ownership I’ll be well underweight in my GPP builds.
I’m having a bit of a hard time with this slate. We aren’t really waiting on any major injury news (I expect Lebron to play). There isn’t a whole lot I love or have strong conviction on at this point in the day. When that’s the case I tend to weigh ownership a bit more and try to fade some of the more chalky plays. Keep and eye out for injury news that may drop that could open up some value (as of now we don’t have many strong value plays). Hopefully this slate comes together this afternoon and I’ll post updates to my GPP Cores around 7:00 tonight for both sites.
Let’s have a big night!
Max
