Happy Hump Day everybody! Quick recap as I had a major sweat last night for the second night in a row. I ended up coming in 3rd in the Fadeaway for a nice $2K payout. I’m inching closer and closer to the top of the leaderboards so hopefully third time’s a charm. As for the write-up yesterday, all the plays hit. We had DMitch go off, Ayton get ruled out after lock to get Mcgee at low ownership and Ingram underwhelmed as my fade…let’s keep it up tonight as I do feel like I’m in a nice groove with my NBA DFS Tourney play. Wednesday slates are always brutal as we have a massive 11 gamer on tap. Research took all day just to get through each team so I’m again writing this a little late.
+EV Strategy:
- With a slate this large be selective and pick your spots. We don’t want to have a player pool of 70 players (which can easily happen on a slate this large). Target a few games and try to narrow down your player pool as much as possible. I do sometimes find slates this large are more difficult to win a GPP as there is a better chance over 11 games of some random player going off that you have to have in your lineups. We also have games starting all night so if you aren’t able to be by your computer throughout the night you may want to play lite or just play 1 or 2 lineups.
Game Stacks:
- Charlotte v Golden State: For large field GPPs I love stacking/correlating different ways with this game. We have some great high priced options in Curry and Lamelo. We also have some nice mid range plays with crazy upside in Jordan Poole, Draymond and Miles Bridges. This is also the last game of the night so it gives your roster flexibility should late news break (with 11 games I’m expecting a bit of craziness). I always like pairing Draymond with Curry as they usually correlate well throughout their careers. The Golden State side of this game is getting moderate ownership but the Charlotte side is getting no ownership. Lamelo and Bridges are both coming in at under 3% projected ownership. For Curry/Draymond/Poole to go off I think Bridges or Lamelo would need to have a monster game. This game screams UPSIDE!!!!
- Atlanta v Brooklyn: This game stack is dependent on the John Collins news. If John Collins gets ruled out we would have a lot of value open up since Collins was playing 32-34 minutes a night. I’d like Trae, Capela, Bogdonovic and Danilo (if starting) if Collins gets ruled out. I looked up some of Atlanta’s rates from last year without Collins and Trae, Capela and Bogdan all see substantial increases in per minute production. On the Brooklyn side we can again look to a low owned durant as a nice bring back. Keep track of ownership but it looks like Durant will have half the ownership of Harden. If that’s the case I’ll use Durant as my bring back option in my game stacks.
GPP Plays:
- Joel Embiid – Even though I’m not crazy about the Philly v Chicago game, Embiid having a projected ownership of 7% without Tobias or Simmons seems wild to me. Last year without both Simmons and Tobias, Embiid was at 2.11 fpm and 45% usage (in 146 minutes). Those are eye popping rates. I’m not crazy about the matchup but at low ownership I like getting over the field on Embiid in large field GPPs.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic – This play is contingent on Collins getting ruled out. If Collins is ruled out, Bogdanovic was at about 1 fpm last year. At a $5200 price tag he is just too cheap. He also gets the added benefit of a high paced matchup with Brooklyn. Keep an eye out on ownership here but I’m expecting him to be at a moderate 10% or less.
- Lamelo Ball – This is a deep GPP play as the projections don’t seem to like Lamelo, however if he is really going to be 1% owned I have to get over the field on that number. The matchup is juicy and it’s the late night hammer. Lamelo so far this year is at about 1.4 fpm so the biggest issue with him is minutes. In his last 2 games he’s seen 33 and 34 minutes so the minutes seem to be trending up. If this game stays competitive, he should hover around 35 minutes and he can absolutely smash. Also, won’t it be fun to watch Lamelo and Curry go at it late night while seeing your winnings keep going up? Let’s have some fun with this play.
FADES:
- Michael Porter Jr. – I hate playing this guy so much. It feels like he burns me everytime…well not tonight. He does have a decent projection but if he’s coming in close to 20% owned on a slate this size I’ll happily fade him and just play Jokic from the Denver side. So far this year he just doesn’t seem to have the upside of years past. His best game so far this year is 35 fantasy points so I don’t think there is too much risk in a fade. Also, Denver has a lot of mouths to fee in Jokic, Barton and Gordon so I think we can get away with a fade here.
This slate is massive so keep an eye on news up to lock. I’ll say this again, try to take some stands as there are tons of good plays tonight. Pick a game or 2 you like and build around those games. I’ll be watching the Wiz game tonight (sadly, not many plays I like from my Wiz this evening). Hope everyone enjoys a full slate of games and wins some cheese.
Max
