Last night was a fun little 4 game slate. We got some big news post-lock on Jokic being out that opened up Denver value. If we look at ownership percentages from last night the Denver plays all came in much too low owned due to getting the news after lock. Barton, Jeff Green and Jamychal Green all were under 20% owned in GPPs. If the Denver injury news dropped before lock these plays would have all been at least 30%+ owned. This is an example of getting an edge on the competition by late swapping. I had an interesting night, I was sitting in first place in the Jab Step with 3 minutes left in the last game of the evening. I was showing a $5,000+ profit at this point, the next 3 minutes and OT did not treat me well. I ended up in 14th place in that contest and was down slightly on the night. This just goes to show the variance involved in single slates. Although we can get edges and put ourselves in good spots, the end result of getting 1st or 2nd place still comes down to luck. The nice part about NBA DFS is we can’t dwell on our losses too long since there are new slates nightly. Tonight we have a gigantic 13 game slate so let’s dig in.
+EV Strategy:
- With a 13 game slate your process will be put to the test. It requires more time to research and more time at lock and post lock to adjust lineups for all the injury news that will inevitably drop. I suggest trying to simplify things on a night like tonight. If you typically make a lot of lineups for GPPs, try just making 1 lineup so it makes tonight a little more manageable, or if you play cash and GPPs just focus on GPPs for tonight. Another option that I’ve been preaching of late is to only play some turbo or showdown slates that will be much more manageable from a research perspective.
Game Stacks:
What makes this slate unique/tricky is that there are a few games with really large spreads for today’s NBA. We have Milwaukee favored by 15 over Detroit and we have Utah favored by 13 over OKC. In addition, I can see the Warriors being favored by 10+ over Philly pending injury news. I hate to predict blowouts so if any of these favorites are coming in very low owned it could be a spot to get overweight the field in your GPP exposures.
- Spurs vs. Hawks – (Large Field GPPs) This game will go overlooked by the field mainly because we aren’t waiting on any news and in general it feels like nobody wants to play Spurs because Popovic can have some crazy rotations game to game. This year though, the Spurs minutes feel more secure. When looking at ownership on this game at a macro level it’s projected very low. Poeltl is drawing some ownership but everyone else in this match-up is projected to be single digit owned. I’m finally ready to embrace Dejounte Murray as a legit stud with as much upside as almost anyone in the NBA. He’s at 1.3 fpm on the year with 59+ fantasy points in 3 of 4 games and over 20 field goal attempts in 3 of the last 4 games as well. He also fills up the stat sheet and is a triple double threat. I see him as similar to Russell Westbrook in how he accrues fantasy points. On the Atlanta side we have some low ownership on Trae, John Collins, Capela and Huerter. I love pairing Murray with Trae tonight in hopes this game is close and high scoring. The Vegas total for this game is 222 which is one of the highest totals of the night. I expect to be overweight the field and will have a few stacks of this game in my large field GPP exposures.
- Blazers vs. Kings – This game is the last game of the night, so locking in plays from this game will give you maximum flexibility for late swaps. It also has the highest total of the slate at 224. The best part is we are getting some nice price discounts on almost all the plays in this game. Sacramento has 5 high upside plays for GPPs (Fox, Hield, Barnes, Holmes, Haliburton). I’m fine with any of these plays but my favorite plays are Fox and Hield. On the Portland side we can always play a low owned Dame. Mccollum and Norm Powell also have affordable price tags. There are just so many plays here. It looks like early ownership projections expect Hield, Barnes and CJ Mccollum to be the heaviest owned. If that’s the case I don’t mind stacking with the lower owned plays for leverage and pairing Fox with Dame (both projected at single digit ownership).
GPP Plays:
- Donovan Mitchell: DMitch is my favorite play of the slate at this point in the day. He has a discounted price tag on DK at $8300 and the projected ownership is showing under 15% (so not too chalky). I’m guessing the ownership is low due to the potential for a blowout but I’m going to have a bunch of plays from this game in hopes it stays close. Mitchell is my favorite piece from Utah and you can run it back with Giddey, Dort or Bazley from the OKC side. In looking at the box scores, Mitchell is still getting his shots up (over 20 field goal attempts last 2 games). Just last game he shot 5 for 20 from the filed and still had 39 fantasy points. He has a solid floor, high upside and moderate ownership which is my favorite type of play.
- Dejounte Murray – I touched on him above so I won’t get into too much more detail here. The projected ownership on him is only 7% probably because he isn’t projecting all that well but the upside is immense as evidenced by 59+ fantasy points in 3 of 4 games. I’ll be getting overweight here.
- Lu Dort – I love Dort tonight and was expecting him to come in sub 5% owned but the projections I’m looking at have him at 15% projected ownership. I don’t expect him to be that chalky once all the news break and anticipate him coming in under 5% owned once more value opens up. Dort is a great bring back for Donovan Mitchell lineups in hopes this game can stay competitive. On the year without Shai, Dort is only at .73 fpm and 27% usage but when I look back to last year he was at .95 fpm and 26% usage without Shai. I’m expecting Dort to trend more towards last years fantasy point per minute rates as the usage has been consistent, he just isn’t hitting his shots. The price tag is a little too low with Shai being out and Dort has some sneaky upside (he already has a 50+ fantasy point game this year).
FADES:
At this point in the day I’m not sure I trust ownership projections and as injury news drops, the projections will change drastically but here are few thoughts on some chalkier options I’m not as high on.
- CJ Mccollum – I know the price tag is discounted on CJ but if he’s going to be close to 25% owned I’ll be underweight and get leverage with Dame and Norm Powell on the same team. CJ is mainly reliant on actual points to get his fantasy points as he gets very few peripherals. If his shot isn’t falling he will not pay off this price tag. Also, I’m not crazy about the upside on CJ, based on his game he basically needs 40 actual points to really break the slate with his lack of rebounds and assists. I like this game at a macro level, but can find some lower owned ways to stack it if CJ is chalk.
- Harrison Barnes – Another play in one of my favorite games that looks to be getting steamed up from an ownership perspective. As of this writing he’s projected at close to 30% projected ownership. His rates are trending in the wrong direction and he’s been under 30 fantasy points in 6 of 7 games. Also, there are a bunch of plays I like on Sacramento (Fox, Hield) as pivots off a chalky Harrison Barnes.
Based on initial research this is looking like a fun slate. One game I didn’t touch on is the Milwaukee vs. Detroit game…I see this game as potentially deciding the slate. I expect it to blowout (15 point spread) but if it does stay competitive there will be a lot of plays from both sides that you’ll want exposure to. I suggest taking a stance on what you think happens in this game and build your rosters from there. Garza is one play I do like (large field GPPs only) since even in a blowout he may get some blowout run.
It’s the night before Thanksgiving, which is one of the biggest party nights of the year so maybe we get a little extra edge tonight with most of our opponents not following the injury news. If you’re going out I suggest not playing this slate as there will be a lot of news breaking that will change the make-up of the slate.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
Max
