Last night’s slate was interesting as the top 4 scorers don’t sound that unexpected, but all of them had single digit ownership:
- Lamelo – 62.75 fpts (5% owned)
- D Murray – 59 fpts (8% owned)
- Durant – 53.5 fpts (2% owned)
- Morant – 52.5 fpts (2% owned)
This again backs up the theory that if the best player on a particular team is going to be low owned, we probably want to get shares of him since these are the plays that have ridiculous upside at low ownership (even if they seem somewhat overpriced). I got stung by JVAL last night and felt fortunate to almost break even on the night thanks to some late night showdown winnings. Tonight we have a small 4 game slate and it’s an ugly one with a lot of key injury news we are still waiting on. At this point in the day I’m going to change the format of the article a bit since the injury news is massive and will totally change the slate.
+ EV Strategy:
- On this small 4 game slate with 2 games starting 2+ hours after the others the late swap edge will be huge. We have both Luca and Jokic listed questionable in the late games so that injury news will shape the slate. I don’t think we are going to get the Jokic news before lock so you may have to guess as to if we think he’s in or out. I’m going to dive into the injury situations more in the next section but tonight’s slate is going to be decided by having a plan for late swap.
Injury Situations:
I’m only going to highlight the major news we are waiting on and some if/then thoughts:
- Miami: Bam, Duncan Robinson and PJ Tucker Questionable – This news we should get before lock since it’s the first game of the night.
- If Bam is ruled in I’ll be somewhat low on Miami as a whole. I don’t mind sprinkles of Herro and potentially PJ Tucker (if he plays) in GPPs and we could then get Bam at low ownership which would be a play I’d want to get overweight on if he’s sub 5% owned.
- If Bam is out – Bam being out would open up a lot on Miami. I’d have interest in Jimmy Butler (his rates without PJ and Bam are at 1.63 fpm and 30% usage and also Herro gets a bump to 1.17 fpm without Bam. Also, Bam being out would open up Dedmon as a great cheap center value (priced at $3500).
- Duncan Robinson and PJ Tucker – these injury situations don’t have quite as much an impact but we could get more minutes for Herro if Robinson is out and we would want to keep our eye out for who starts for PJ should he get ruled out.
- LA Lakers: Anthony Davis Questionable – I’m hopeful we get this news before lock (AD has come down with an illness). This guy is so soft and even if he plays there is serious mid-game injury risk here. He will not be a fun roster tonight but if the masses also feel this way and he comes in low owned we will probably want to get some shares.
- If Anthony Davis is in – He rates out as a decent spend up with rates of 1.43 fpm and 30% usage without Lebron. I just see a lot of risk here and the match-up vs. the Knicks is a tough one. I’m leaning toward steering clear of this situation in general but we will need to follow projected ownership here. If AD is in I’ll have some interest in Westbrook and THT grades out as a solid mid-range play (although the price tag has come up to $5900 on DK).
- If Anthony Davis is out – If AD is out I’ll be heavy on Westbrook and THT. With both Lebron and AD off the court Westbrook is at 1.48 fpm and 35% usage on the season and THT is at 1.09 fpm and 29% usage. These would become 2 of my heaviest owned plays should AD get ruled out. We also could get some GPP value options in Carmelo or possibly Dwight/Deandre (although that situation is a bit of a headache).
- Denver – Nikola Jokic Questionable- This piece of news is going to be tricky to handle. I don’t think we get this news before lock and if he plays, all the Denver value becomes almost unplayable even in GPPs.
- If The Joker is in – I’d want to fade this team entirely with the exception of Jokic. If the news drops late we could get a really low owned Jokic. I’d want to get as overweight as possible in that situation if you have the cap space on your rosters to late swap.
- If The Joker is out – This team is priced up since Jokic has been out the last few games. Jeff Green and Jamychal Green could be decent value options and I don’t mind Monte Morris as a low owned GPP play in that scenario.
- Dallas – Luca Doncic Questionable – I’m expecting Luca to sit this one out since there were tweets that he aggravated an injury in practice yesterday. I’m going to presume he’s out but he’s officially listed as Questionable on the injury report.
- If Luca is in – If Luca is in I may completely fade the Mavs since they are all priced up based on Luca being out. I’m not sure I trust Luca here and would much rather spend up for Jokic or Westbrook should we get that news.
- If Luca is out – This would make Porzingis look really good based on his rates without Doncic this year. This season he’s at 1.48 fpm with 30% usage without Doncic. The price tag has been coming up on Porzingis but that should help keep the ownership down. If you are looking for a low owned late night hammer stack I don’t mind Porzingis paired with PG-13 or Reggie Jackson. Also, Tim Hardaway and Brunson would grade out as solid plays without Luca. I’d be more inclined to fade Brunson of the two since his price is all the way up at $7300 on DK. I’ll most likely be underweight on a chalky Brunson in this scenario and overweight on Porzingis.
One other note: Teams without any injury news at a macro level I expect to come in lower owned. Of these teams, I like the Portland plays at low ownership the most (Lillard, Norm Powell, Covington). The shape of this slate is totally up in the air so I figured this structure for the article today made sense, rather than listing my favorite plays that I know will change multiple times before and after lock. Be ready for some late swaps tonight and let’s crush this slate. I’ll be updating my core plays close to lock so make sure to reference that for my favorite GPP plays.
Max
