I’m getting a late start to the article today. Last night I had some big sweats as I was in the top 2 in the big $4 dollar tourney only to drop to 6th at the very end of the last game of the night – guess that’s how GPP life goes. I still made a solid $1000 off a $4 dollar entry so it’s hard to complain about that. In general, it feels like we are starting to have an idea of who these teams and players are, as the sample size is growing. I must say this slate tonight is ugly as there isn’t much I like. We have some really low totals for today’s NBA and some matchups that could end in potential blowouts. Let’s dig in…
+EV Strategy:
- This slate is almost impossible to write about this early on as we have very little news. We are waiting on the statuses of the following players: Ayton, Bam, Lebron, Ingram (now probable), Theis, Tate and Dwight. For a 5 game slate those are some big names. I’m expecting most of that news to come after lock so make sure to leave some spots on your rosters for players in the late games as I’m expecting a lot of late news today. We also have 3 games starting at 9:00 of later so we should have some options for late swaps. I’m expecting the edge on this slate to be from late swap.
Game Stacks:
- I honestly have no idea where to go on this slate yet so I’ll just lay out my thoughts:
- MIL v DET – The Milwaukee v Detroit game has some value but then you are locking yourself in at a lot of positions so you can’t late swap. I’m leaning towards more of a fade of this game but if news doesn’t break my way it could be an early night. I will always play Giannis (even if chalky) but am going to try and lower my exposure to the Detroit side of this game.
- MIA v DAL – This game has a low total but a close spread. I could have major interest here if Bam is ruled out as we could then pair Jimmy with Luca, or as a low owned pivot go to Tyler Herro. Dedmon would become one of, if not the best play on the slate.
- SAC v UTAH – I don’t really like the Sacramento prices in this game on the road vs Utah, but Fox always has that upside to break a slate. I’m thinking this game will come in lower owned but I worry about a blowout as Utah at home is a tough place to play.
- NOP v PHX – This is the game I will probably key on as we have decent pricing and some potential late news to monitor. If we stack this game we can be ready to swap should Ayton get ruled out. We also have ingram as doubtful so that makes the Pelicans plays all get a bump in usage. As for correlated plays – I like a Booker pairing with JVAL or NAW here, but this game also has it’s warts as the game could blow out (Pelicans only have a 102 total).
- LAK v HOU – This is another potential blowout with late news we are waiting on. The Lebron news is huge but I’m worried this news doesn’t drop till late, making it hard to keep our rosters flexible. If Lebron is out I’d love to jam in Russ and AD but how long can we wait on that news? Kevin Porter has a nice price tag for the upside he brings so there are some Houston pieces we can run this game back with.
At this point in the day this slate shapes up as one of the toughest of the season as you will need to plan ahead with your rosters and make some guesses on what games blowout and what games stay competitive.
GPP Plays:
- Javale Mcgee – Javale is probably my favorite GPP play of the slate. I don’t think we are going to get the Ayton news before lock which will bring the Mcgee ownership down. If Ayton is ruled out after lock, Mcgee becomes a must play. He has been at 1.2 fpm this year without Ayton and is historically a high fantasy point per minute player. Even at 20 minutes he could crush his price tag of $3400 and if we get him at low ownership…gidddey up.
- Donovan Mitchell – DMitch still hasn’t had that blowup game yet this year but it’s coming. A matchup at home vs. Sacramento seems like as good a spot as any for DMitch to go off. The game is also later in the night so having him on rosters gives some flexibility should late news drop. In addition the ownership seems to be held in check. At 15% projected ownership on a 5 game slate I like getting over this on my GPP builds.
GPP Fades:
- Jerami Grant – This one is an easy fade in my eyes – Grant is priced up at $7200 and seems to be getting some ownership (over 15% projected). I think he’s mainly getting ownership because he’ll be the bring back piece on Detroit when you stack Milwaukee. I like the fade here as Grant is streaky and I don’t think we are getting a bargain on that price tag. In addition he locks in a high priced option in our lineups in the first game of the night which hurts roster flexibility.
That’s all I got for now. Tonight more than most nights you’ll want to monitor news and plan your rosters accordingly. I feel like I’m getting close to a bink so hopefully tonight is the night for me or one of my readers. Follow the core plays up to lock for any changes based on news.
Enjoy the games.
Max
