Last night I took my own advice and took the night off from NBA DFS (for the most part…had to dabble in some late night showdown). It was a nice break and I’m feeling refreshed for tonight’s slate. We have a 6 gamer tonight, which in my eyes is the ideal amount of games. I feel like I have a good grasp on tonight’s slate (you can really dive into researching each specific team when you only have 6 games on the slate). It’s been a profitable week so far so hopefully we can keep it going tonight.
+EV Strategy:
- There’s a bit of injury news we are waiting on for this evenings slate. It looks as if Steph is going to play, so it’s nice we got that news early. We will have to wait on the Bam news. He’s in the early game so we should have this news before lock. The Bam injury will shape the slate as a lot of value could open up if he’s ruled out (Dedmon would be a great value play). The late swap edge shouldn’t be as big tonight since there really isn’t any injury news we are waiting on in the late games that would change the slate.
Game Stacks:
My favorite game could change based on news but my early lean has me focused on 2 games:
- Golden State vs. Cleveland – This is my favorite game of the night and really my only concern is that Cleveland plays slow and has a sub 100 total in this one. But, on a micro level there are a lot of good plays here due to all the injuries on the Cleveland side. Rubio and Garland both grade out well from the Cleveland side. *Update: With Jarrett Allen ruled out we can really start jamming in plays from the Cleveland side due to a depleted front court. The Warriors side of this game also has a lot of plays, Curry we all know has crazy upside if he’s hitting. The last 2 weeks he’s been on fire and is at 1.7 fpm in that time-frame. With shooters in general, I do believe they can get hot or in a groove and it feels like Curry is on a hot streak. He’s priced up but if you can get a sub 5% owned Curry on a 6 game slate I’ll always try to get above that in my GPP exposures. There are also some nice mid-range plays in Poole and Draymond to game stack and correlate your rosters.
- LA Clippers vs. Memphis – Another game that I’m targeting on tonight’s slate is the Clippers vs. Grizz match-up. The total is over 220 and I expect this game to st ay close with a 1 point spread. The spend-up options are slightly overpriced but with that comes low ownership. I’ll make sure to have a roster or two with PG-13 and Morant on them in hopes that this game stays close and high scoring. In addition, there are some great mid-range plays in Dillon Brooks, Bane, RJAX and Zubac just to name a few of my favorite plays here. To summarize, a lot of well priced mid-range plays and a great game environment. Also, this game should have low ownership at a macro level as no plays in this game are projected over 20% ownership.
GPP Plays:
I mentioned some plays in like in the game stacks section so I’ll focus on some plays from other games for large field GPPs only:
- Jordan Clarkson – I’m a big fan of Mr. Clarkson for fantasy purposes as he loves to chuck. The only issue with Clarkson is he’s not getting minutes. At a $5200 price tag it feels like he’s not priced appropriately for his ceiling. In looking at the last few games, he has over 10 field goal attempts in 5 straight games and in his last 3 games he’s shot 10+ three pointers in each. If his shot is falling he is going to pay off this price tag. I looked up his last game log and he had 38% usage!!! I don’t expect that tonight but it just goes to show how much he dominates the ball when he’s on the floor. Also, I think there’s a chance he closes this game, just 2 games ago he closed the game ahead of Conley and got up to 32 minutes. The final reason to like him tonight is he’s projected at 1% ownership. I’ll be well overweight on Clarkson in GPPs.
- Daniel Gafford – I’ve been waiting to play this guy all year and of course the night I take off goes off. Last night he went for 38 fantasy points in 24 minutes. Gafford throughout his career has been over a fantasy point per minute (fppm) guy. It looks like Gafford and Harrell are in a timeshare at Center for the Wiz as each is playing about 24 minutes. At a $4500 price tag and 24 minutes, Gafford looks like a good value with potential for upside either through efficiency or more minutes if he’s playing well. We also have very low ownership based on early projections (under 5%). Gafford is yet another mid-range play I’ll be getting overweight on in my GPP allocations.
FADES:
- Aaron Gordon – Gordon looks to be one of the 5 chalkiest plays based on early ownership projections. I HATE PLAYING THIS GUY. The minutes do seem solidified but no matter who is ruled out, his usage and rates don’t seem to change much. He’s at .83 fpm on the year and that doesn’t change much with MPJ and Barton off the floor (it actually goes down to .7 fpm with both off the court). He looks like an ok value if he gets 32 to 34 minutes, but for GPPs I just don’t see the upside. He is not the same player as he was with Orlando. I may do a full fade here or be extremely under weight on this play for GPPs.
There are a lot of low owned plays to like tonight so it should be a fun slate. Also, my Wiz are in action so I’ll be watching some of that game. Hope everyone is having a good week and enjoying this warm weather.
Good luck tonight!
Max
