Hope everyone is having a good work week so far (ugh, still only Tuesday). Recapping last night, there was quite a bit of news right around lock so it did get a bit hectic. Most of my GPP plays did well last night and I had some major sweats in multiple contests. I ended up finishing 2nd in the Jab Step for $3000 and had a number of other high finishes so it was fun sweat and a very profitable evening. My results have been really streaky so far this season so hopefully the hot streak continues tonight. We have a 3 game slate tonight so I may go a little lighter than normal with my bankroll.
+EV Strategy:
- Tonight’s slate doesn’t have much value and there isn’t much I feel great about. I may play the ownership game and try to get leverage on a few high owned plays. There isn’t much injury news we are waiting on so I’m not seeing a late swap edge but you never know when 2 of the 3 games are two and a half hours after lock. I’ll be playing light and will try to get underweight on Mills and Durant as chalk.
Game Stack:
- Brooklyn v Golden State – This should be a great game to watch and this game does have the highest total of the night but also figures to be chalky. I like this game and think we can get direct leverage by playing some lower owned plays in this one. I like the idea of fading Durant and playing Harden who is projected at half the ownership. For Golden State bring backs we can always play Steph Curry in GPPs at moderate ownership. I also like Iggy tonight as a salary saver, if this game goes small I expect his minutes to creep up into the 20’s and at almost minimum price we don’t need much from him to be the best value of the evening. I’ll be going underweight on the Durant/Patty Mills chalk and trying to get different in my stacks.
GPP Plays:
- James Harden- I haven’t played much Harden this season but that comes to an end tonight. On a 3 game slate he’s coming in at moderate ownership (25-30% projected). He should be direct leverage off the Kevin Durant chalk which that alone makes him a good GPP play. I also like the usage/numbers of late. In the last week he’s at 1.6 fpm and his usage has ticked up above 30% this past week. Maybe this is the start of a trend as it does seem like the usage is pretty much split between Harden and Durant. Harden has a bit more assist potential with double digit assists in 3 straight games. I’ll be getting overweight on Harden in hopes he outperforms KD tonight.
- Eric Bledsoe – Another moderately owned play I like tonight is Eric Bledsoe. Early ownership projections show RJAX and PG-13 as being chalky, if that’s the case a nice low owned leverage play on the same team is Eric Bledsoe. He’s priced affordably on DK at $5200 and is coming in at around 20% ownership. In his last 4 games he has over 30 fantasy points in each and he’s right around .9 fpm on the season. The minutes aren’t totally solidified as we have a lot of guards and wings that could close this game out but if Bledsoe is playing well he should get 30+ minutes, which is plenty to pay off this price tag.
FADES:
- Kevin Durant – On a slate this small I’m going to take some stands (and it may bite me). I’m not going to fade durant completely but at a projected ownership of 50% I’ll be well underweight and take my chances with the other spend ups on the slate in Harden, Curry, DMitch and PG-13. I’ve played a lot of Durant early in the year when he seemed to have low ownership nightly. His rates on the season look good but they aren’t Giannis or Jokic levels of usage. He’s at 1.42 fpm on the year and 32% usage…although in the last week the usage has ticked down below 30%. I’ll be off Durant in this spot and will close my eyes and hope he doesn’t bury me by 10 o’clock tonight.
Don’t be afraid to take some stands on a small 3 game slate for GPPs. If you really like a particular game, stack it up and hope it stays close. I’ll be enjoying the Brooklyn vs. Golden State game with a few cold ones. Let’s keep the heater going tonight.
Max
