It’s finally Friday after a crazy week at the day job and grinding DFS. I’m looking forward to a little weekend break to re-charge the batteries. Last night went well mainly due to cash games. Fading DROB and playing PJ Tucker didn’t quite pan out but I did have some good lineups sprinkled in my MME portfolio, although nothing quite got there. I’ve been playing a lot of late turbo slates/showdowns and they have been quite profitable for cash games. I suggest spreading out your entries across slates each night to help with variance nightly. Tonight we have an 11 game slate and at first glance there are a plethora of solid plays.
+EV Thoughts:
- Ownership looks to be pretty spread out with no massive chalk on this slate. Projections I’m looking at have nobody over 35% owned. On these slates I don’t really factor in ownership and just try to find the plays I like to simplify my process. There will be games all night and lineups/injuries to account for. If you don’t feel like being by your computer all Friday night try just entering some turbo or showdown slates. I have no life and 2 kids so I’ll be near my computer all night with a beer in hand ready for some swaps. If you want to make a +EV life move, go out with some friends for happy hour and just play the late night showdown.
Game Stacks:
There are a lot of very stackable games tonight – I’ll name a few here with some plays I like:
- Sacramento vs. OKC – This one is for big MME GPP tourneys as it should be very low owned. The pricing on OKC as a whole is just too cheap. Shai is appropriately priced but there are a lot of mid-range plays I like on the OKC side in Giddey, Dort and Bazley. The issue is bringing it back on the Sacramento side. I’m hoping Haliburton gets ruled out but either way I think we can fire up Fox again in tourneys (projected less than 1% ownership). His usage has been at 34% and 38% the last 2 games without Haliburton and he’s posted some big fantasy lines. This could mean he’s returning to his form from last year? I’ll be getting well overweight on Fox in correlated OKC lineups in hopes that maybe Fox has found some form.
- Chicago vs. Golden State – The Chicago side of this one will be chalky as Vucevic is out with the Rona’. There are a lot of ways to go on Chicago with Derozan, Lavine and Lonzo all seeing a bump. We’ll also get some chalky value in Tony Bradley (assuming he starts). The way to get different here is on the Golden State side of this game. I don’t think this ownership projection is right but it’s showing Curry (Stephen Curry not Seth Curry) at 1%!?! I’m guessing he’s closer to 5% owned but regardless he will be low owned. If this game stays close we know Curry has unlimited upside (he just dropped 86 fantasy points this past week). I also don’t mind Poole on the Golden State side but would make a rule to play only 1 of Curry or Poole. The cherry on top here is this game is the late night hammer, so it will give our rosters flexibility to late swap throughout the evening.
GPP Plays:
- De’Aaron Fox – I already touched on Fox above so I won’t go too much more in depth here but I love the upside and low ownership here. This is for large field GPPs only but he is a great bring back with 2 OKC pieces.
- Nikola Jokic – With so many spend-ups the ownership is going to be really spread out on the high priced plays. I’m seeing 13% projected ownership on The Joker, which is a bit too low in my opinion. His rates this year with MPJ off the court are maybe the most ridiculous rates I’ve ever seen since playing DFS. He’s typically at 1.75 fpm with 30% usage and these rates get a bump up to 2.23 fpm with 34% usage when MPJ is off the floor. Those numbers have me salivating and I’ll be getting well overweight in GPPs.
- Cade Cunningham – Cade did not disappoint his last time out and I’ll be going right back to him in this spot. I will start with a slight negative on him in that Cleveland does play slow but these teams aren’t very good so hopefully we get a close game here. The case for Cade is he’s only $5600 on DK and his projected ownership is showing around 5%. Cade is starting to take over the offense for this Detroit team. He’s had over 30% usage in 3 straight games and at least 17 field goal attempts in each of those 3 games. There is a lot of upside at this price and there are some good bring back options as well on the Cleveland side in Rubio and J. Allen. I’ll be well overweight in this spot.
Fades:
- Dallas Mavericks – Porzingis is coming in with the highest ownership on the slate. He does project well and is slightly underpriced but this guy constantly disappoints. On a slate this size I’ll be underweight here since there are just tons of pivots in all price ranges. You can even look to Tim Hardaway Jr. on the same time as a nice pivot. One little nugget I found on Luca that may not be that applicable for this slate since he’s not getting heavy ownership; With Porzingis on the floor this year, Luca is at 1.2 fpm and his usage takes a 3% hit. This makes sense but I was surprised his fantasy point per minute rate went down that drastically. I’ll be off Luca on this slate as well and will keep this little nugget in mind when Dallas is on a smaller slate.
That’s all I got for today. There is going to be tons of news with 11 games on tap. Make sure to check out my core plays for my favorite GPP plays closer to lock. Everyone enjoy the weekend and let’s make some money tonight.
Max
