NBA DFS Season is wild and the bankroll swings are real. I was hot last week with a few high end finishes and now I’ve come back down to earth this week with a couple losing sessions in a row. It’s a wild ride and we need to be realistic that no matter how great we are at DFS, you will have ups and downs. I treat it similar to the stock market and like to track my returns monthly and annually. Last night’s fade of Aaron Gordon went well and I had some nice lineups but nothing close to the top of GPPs. After a tiring 13 game slate, the NBA schedule gods graced us with a 3 gamer…couldn’t they have spread out those games a little bit? Anyway lets see what edges we can find on this short slate.
+EV Strategy:
- There are some really strong plays tonight that will be chalky. Remember that we don’t need to fade all the good plays, they are good plays for a reason. Especially on a short slate, the pivot options just aren’t going to be reasonable for some of these plays. Look at lineups as a whole and try to differentiate in a few spots or get some correlation in your lineups while not giving up a ton in projection.
- Late Swap – We have 1 early game and 2 late games tonight. The injury updates we are waiting on are in the early game so we should get that news before lock (Tobias and Seth Curry both Questionable). There are a few teams on back to backs in the late games (Miami and Indy) so there’s always a chance something unforeseen happens and someone gets ruled out after lock. Keep an eye out tonight as I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some late news here.
Game Stacks:
- It’s hard to get away from the Miami v LA game as the late night hammer. There is tons of value that’s opened up on Miami with Butler being out and there are a few plays I don’t mind on the Clippers side. Most lineups are going to have a few Miami plays sprinkled in (Herro, Bam, Lowry, DRob) so to correlate I’m looking for some lower ownership on the other side of this game. Reggie Jackson is a play I never mind going to in GPPs. He already has a 50 fantasy point game this year and he has been chucking it of late. The ownership is moderate right around 20% (not too high for a 3 game slate) so I don’t mind this as a bring back with the Miami pieces. Another angle to play is if you think this game blows out fire up some Hartenstein to get some big leverage on the field.
GPP Plays:
There is some major Miami chalk with Herro, Bam and Lowry all getting a big bump with Jimmy Butler looking doubtful. It’s hard to poke holes in these plays on a 3 game slate so just try to differentiate other ways.
- DMitch – I’m gonna have to go right back to Donovan Mitchell as he’s treated me well this year. He’s priced appropriately at $9100 on DK. I always love this guy’s upside as he has 4 straight games with 20 of more field goal attempts. I like looking at field goal attempts for GPPs because all it takes is a hot night for someone taking a high volume of shots for them to smash. DMitch is at 36% usage on the year, which is a usage rate we typically see for players above $10K. As of now, he’s looking to be around 20% owned, which is pretty low for a 3 game slate. I’ll be getting over the field on DMitch.
- PJ Tucker – This one is as ugly as it gets, I think I’m gonna be playing some PJ Tucker tonight (I don’t blame you if you stop reading here but let me explain). He’s priced at $3100 and he should see a few extra minutes with Jimmy off the floor. There also just isn’t much to like under $4K today as he’s one of the only plays that will actually get decent run. PJ is coming in at under 5% projected ownership and he is a way to get direct leverage off of the other chalky Miami plays. I looked up his rates without Butler and he’s at a respectable .77 fpm (that’s quite a bump for PJ – typically .57 fpm). It’s not that I think he smashes but he opens up your roster to play a bunch of spend ups. At a really weak PF position on DK, I don’t mind paying all the way down here as there isn’t much opportunity cost at Power Forward. I’m gonna close my eyes and hope for 20+ DK points here.
- Reggie Jackson – I already mentioned this play above so I won’t go too deep here but use him as a moderately owned bring back piece for your Miami stacks.
FADES:
- Duncan Robinson – After doing my research I was all set to write up Duncan as a good GPP play. Then I took a look at some ownership projections and he’s at 40%! I was thinking he’d be in the 10% range. He’s getting heavy ownership because there just is no value on this slate. DROB has been ice cold shooting to start the year so who’s to say that cold stretch won’t continue tonight? Duncan Robinson is always someone I look to play when low owned because he can get hot from 3 and I look to fade when he’s high owned and hope he isn’t hitting his shot that night. In looking at his rates without Jimmy, he’s only at .66 fpm without him so I don’t think Jimmy in or out makes much of a difference to his rates. I’ll be pivoting to PJ Tucker, Kennard and maybe some Hartenstein if I need a really cheap play. The better route may be to just go balanced in your roster builds.
It’s a small 3 game slate so let’s have some fun. I do love Thursday nights since you get some NBA and NFL games to watch and it’s almost the end of the week. Hopefully we can get a nice win streak started tonight.
If you have any comments or ideas for the article on things I can improve, please reach out on discord as I’ll always respond to direct messages.
Thanks,
Max
