Hope everyone enjoyed Halloween weekend. It’s a different experience with kids when doing Halloween festivities but they loved it. I was dressed as an Elephant and looked ridiculous, as expected. Anyways, looking forward to diving back into NBA DFS this week and we have a nice sized 9 gamer on tap for Monday to get the week started.
+EV Strategy:
- Late Swap – It’s a big slate tonight and we don’t have much news we are waiting on. The Brogdon/Levert injury update should come before lock. We do have Ja Morant now listed as Questionable…this one is big and could open up a lot of value on Memphis. We may get this news right around lock, if news doesn’t break until post-lock we will want to save some roster spots for a potential late swap to get some great plays at lower ownership.
Game Stacks:
- Philly v Portland – This game is going to be super chalky but it does stand out as the best game to stack. On the Philly side we have tons of value with Embiid being ruled out. Drummond is close to a lock button play and there are a bunch of cheaper plays also on the Philly side that may have low ownership in Maxey and Shake. On the Portland side we have our standard spend ups in Mccollum and Lillard. Lillard is getting a little chalky as a lot of people will stack this game with Lillard on the Portland side but I like Mccollum as a low owned bring back in this game as well.
- Memphis v Denver – This game stack hinges on the Ja Morant availability but even if he plays I like this game. Ja should come in low owned and is a nice correlated piece with your Jokic lineups. There are also some lower owned plays here in Michael Porter Jr. and Steven Adams (who I think will get more minutes to guard Jokic). The other reason to like this game is you get some added upside should Ja Morant get ruled out post-lock. Having a lot of pieces in this game will give your roster some flexibility to make late swap moves to jam in more Memphis plays.
GPP Plays:
- Andre Drummond – Not going to go into this one as he’s a lock button on my GPP rosters and cash. I don’t see a reason to fade at his price with Embiid out.
- Josh Giddey – The ownership on Josh Giddey is coming in right around 10%…if that’s the case I will have a lot of shares. This ownership probably goes up now that Dort is out but he seems well underpriced at $5200 on DK. Giddey is at 1.07 fpm on the year and that jumps up to 1.27 wo dort (small sample). Also, the minutes in the last game were kept in check due to a blowout…I expect him to be in the low 30s minutes and he can really fill up the stat sheet. I’ll be getting overweight here.
- Gary Trent – This is another mid-range play that is generating minimal ownership. This is another price play as $4800 at the minutes he should get with Barnes out is just too cheap. He is a chucker as evidenced by getting double digit shot attempts in 6 straight games. I think we see the minutes here trend back up into the mid 30’s so if he’s hitting his shot he has a lot of upside at this price.
- CJ Mccollum – If we are going to play some Philly pieces a nice low owned bring back is CJ Mccollum. His projected ownership is under 10% and shockingly he has a higher usage than Lillard so far this year. He’s also at 1.23 fpm this year so he does seem to have a bigger role in the offense this year than in year’s past. I also love the minutes upside here, if this game is close you can see Mccollum get close to 40 minutes. Safe floor, high ceiling and low owned…sign me up!
GPP Fades:
- Tobias Harris – Tobias looks to be getting steamed up in regards to ownership. On DK, he’s not any great value even with Embiid out. He’s at a price tag of $9100 which is right around where he should be. If the ownership is getting out of hand here I’ll be underweight. Tobias is historically at 1.25 fpm without Embiid. If we give him 35 minutes X 1.25 that equals 45 fpts, which is OK for a median projection but not a smash/must play for GPPs. I’m hoping we will be able to get away with a fade here although it may be scary.
It should be a fun slate tonight. I’ve had a nice run with NBA and NFL over the last few days so I’m hoping to keep it going. Hope everyone is enjoying a their Monday and check my core plays for my favorite GPP plays before lock.
Good luck tonight!
Max
