Last night was sooo close to a big night if only I stuck to my guns and faded Luca. Once the Porzingis news dropped it changed the slate and I ended up with some Luca and sadly played Luca in cash to my demise. Looking at the cup half full, I had the right games targeted in DC vs ATL and GS v MEM but just didn’t quite get there in GPPs. Tonight is a clean slate (as every night) so hopefully we can end the week with a bang and some money.
+EV Strategy:
- Draftkings did a great job on pricing this slate as I don’t see any glaring values. Mcconnell and Duarte are a bit underpriced based on the Brogdon being out news but everything else seems very efficiently priced. This means that ownership is going to play a bigger role tonight. If we see certain players getting tons of ownership it’s a good night to fade as I’m not seeing strong chalk like last night with Harrell.
- Late Swap: There are 3 games at 10:00 or later and potentially big news that could come about Lebron being in or out. Also, the clippers are always a team to keep on your radar regarding a late scratch and we also have Jokic listed as Questionable. Tonight seems like there will be a big edge to people planning for late swap. There could be some great value open up after lock that we need to prepare for when building lineups.
Game Stacks:
One of the problems I’m finding tonight is the games I like are all early…this causes a problem since it locks down certain roster spots so you can’t late swap. If playing early stacks make sure to hold a few roster spots with players in the late games so you have some optionality in your lineups.
- Brooklyn v Indiana – This game has a high total and I always like targeting games involving Brooklyn because of their pace. The Pacers are dealing with an injury to brogdon so some value has opened up on that side of this game. On the Brooklyn side of this game I love Durant and think he may come in somewhat low owned. Pairing involving Duarte, Mcconnell and Durant all make sense. A Sabonis/Durant pairing does eat up a lot of salary and flexibility for late swap so I’d be cautious with that combo.
- Sacramento v New Orleans – This game has a tight spread and a high total (it seems like all games have a high total these days). I love this game environment and all the plays are appropriately priced so this should keep ownership in check. Fox and Ingram should both come in low owned and I don’t mind pairing these 2 together to get some correlation. There are also a number of other plays here I like in Valanciunas, D Graham and haliburton. Lots of ways to stack this game at low ownership so for GPPs this is a game I’ll be targeting.
GPP Plays:
- Kevin Durant – I think I list him as a GPP play every game. Tonight I’m thinking Luca is going to draw a lot of ownership at the high end of the salary structure which should keep Durant’s ownership in check. He’s also $700 cheaper than Luca on DK. Durant is at 1.54 fpts/min so if this game stays competitive he has the potential to go off for 70.
- Collin Sexton – He’s locked into huge minutes on Cleveland and he’s jacking up shots. Last game he had 20 shots, he just isn’t hitting anything. If this game can stay close I think it’s Sexton that’s doing the heavy lifting on the Cleveland side. The other reason I like him is he plays in a late game…this will give your roster some flexibility should Lebron or Jokic get ruled out after lock.
- Monte Morris – This play is kinda ugly but there just isn’t much salary relief on this slate. His projection with Jokic in shows him as a good value but should Jokic get ruled out I’d expect his usage and projection to only go up. He also (again) gives your roster flexibility by playing in the late game. I did a query from last year and would you believe that Monte was almost at a fppm without Jokic.
- De’Aaron Fox – I know the projections don’t like him but that is what will keep his ownership down (I’m guessing sub 10%). He’s had a rough start to the year mainly because of bad shooting. The usage is right around what it was last year at 30% but his fantasy points per minute is at 1.03 this year vs last year at 1.25. I expect Fox to start normalizing back to his true rates and he’s got so much upside at this price tag of $8400. I’ll be reserving him for game stacks but I’ll have a bunch of lineups with him paired with Ingram or JVAL.
GPP Fades:
- Maxi Kleber – I love his name but I can’t go here if he is getting high ownership. Last night I had a bunch of him in my lineups and once he was listed as off the bench I got him out of lineups. He had 6 blocks last night which led to him playing more minutes. If he is becoming chalk I will happily fade him as I can see him getting 22 min and 13 fpts in his range of outcomes. He is not a high fppm guy normally so I think a fade is warranted.
I’m expecting a lot of news to drop that will shape this slate and some of that news may be after lock. Be ready to late swap as their should be a late swap edge tonight. Also, it’s Friday so I’m guessing most people don’t want to spend their Friday night updating DFS lineups for news.
Hopefully you all enjoy the games with a cold one tonight (I’ll be drinking Aslin -a local brewery here in Virginia). Have a great Halloween Weekend.
Max
