***UPDATE – Right as I finished writing this of course Zinger gets ruled out. This takes my Luka fade position off the table since if the game blows out Luka probably still gets there and there is now gonna be more cheap value. There’s also the stats showing Luka at 1.89 fpm and 36% usage this year without zinger (very limited sample). I’m no longer on board with a fade but he will be extremely chalky now.
Variance, variance, variance is what I must tell myself. Last night I loved Adams and Gafford and one got injured and the other in foul trouble. I know basketball is the most projectable sport but there is still quite a bit of variance from day-to-day. Cash went OK, but I still ended up a little down on the evening. It’s been a bad stretch to start the year but sometimes that’s what we need to make us work/research a little harder. It’s a 6 game slate tonight, which is right in my wheelhouse and in my eyes just the right amount of games.
+EV Strategy:
- Contest Selection – I’m going to keep harping on this. As an example, the other night I put the same 20 lineups in the biggest field main $15 GPP and lost 68% of my entry fees. Meanwhile, that same 20 lineups in the 1 dollar 20 max netted a 5% profit. That’s a wild swing and goes to show that low dollar, limited field size contests can be much more sustainable to your bankroll over the course of a season.
- Late Swap: Tonight we again have an island game as the last game of the night. Typically I’m scared of banking on late swap with 1 game, however, the GS v MEM game tonight has a plethora of good plays. We aren’t really waiting on injury news but I do feel you need some plays from that last game in general, and it can’t hurt that it gives you optionality since it’s the last game of the evening.
Game Stacks:
Tonight 2 games stick out to me for game stacking purposes and it’s honestly not even close:
- ATL v DC: This game has a high total and a low spread which is what we want to see when targeting games. There are multiple options in this game as Trae, Collins, Beal and Harrell (chalk) are all in good spots. There are also a number of ways to stack/correlate with this game and many of the plays are somewhat low owned. If you want some low ownership – Beal and Trae correlated in the same lineups makes a ton of sense here…if this game goes off you have to think these two are heavily involved.
- MEM v GS: I’m gonna have to go right back to the Memphis Grizzlies well here, even after doing me dirty last night. There are tons of plays in this game and a pay-up stud at low ownership who can go off for a 60 burger at any time. Also, a lot of the mid-range plays here have a ton of upside in Adams, Bane, Melton and Poole. I like having exposure to this game in almost all my lineups to give me flexability should some crazy news break after lock.
GPP Plays:
- Steven Adams – I have to go back to him tonight as he should have even lower ownership after that dud last night. He still has over 30 fpts in 3 of 4 games and he’s a nice pivot off the Harrell chalk at Center (although I’ll probably play both as I do think Harrell is good chalk).
- Bradley Beal – Here are the shooting performances for Beal to start the year: 7 for 19, 8 for 22, 7 for 25. That’s gotta be one of the worst stretches of his career as he’s typically one of the best shooters in the league. I think you get sub 10% ownership in a good game environment. The other note is he’s about $1.5K cheaper than Curry/Luka and there is very little sub $5K value to feel good about on this slate. Rosters are going to look ugly when trying to jam in Luka or Steph so I like a more balanced approach this evening. Beal also has minutes upside into the high 30’s if this game is close (he typically is one of the league leaders in minutes played). I’ll definitely have some shares of Beal in GPPs with a Collins or Trae bring back.
- Ja Morant – The price tag on Ja is a little scary when comparing him to last year but if you dig in this isn’t the same player. Last year he was at 1.1 fpm with a 27% usage. So far this year, Ja is at 1.45 fpm and 34% usage. Basically, he’s taken over as the alpha on this team. I think a 1.4+ fpm rate is sustainable and he has minutes upside into the high 30’s. You do the math and we are talking a median projection of around 50 fpts which will pay off that price-tag. Throw in that he’s coming in at sub 10% ownership in the late night hammer and all that adds up to a great GPP Play.
GPP Fades:
- Luca Doncic – This is where I’m probably going to lose my readers but let me explain. Based on how I’m building lineups I don’t like the Dallas v San Antonio game. Doncic is also coming in with the highest ownership of all the pay-up options. He’s also the highest priced play on a slate with no cheapies I feel good about. This all leads me to a fade of Luka. There are a number of ways this can pay off:
- 1. The game blows out and he doesn’t see his last rotation.
- 2. The cheap plays to pair with Luka all underperform.
- 3. The pay-up options in the other games just out score Luka on a point per dollar scale.
- San Antonio – So I think we need to hop off the spurs DFS bandwagon here. Almost everyone got a bump in salary from the OT game vs. the Lakers. Secondly, this is a tough matchup as this game could go slow (spurs have a 106 total). Poetl and Murray are both priced way too high to consider in my opinion. I don’t mind Keldon Johnson at a $5400 price tag but other than that this game is a stay away in my eyes.
I’m taking some bold stances today and hopefully it pays off. Remember, it’s early in the day so news could change a lot here. If a lot of cheap value opens up that makes Luka more playable. Monitor my core plays up to lock in case news changes some of these initial thoughts.
Good luck tonight.
Max
