Last night seemed to go according to plan, except for the bankroll. Lebron getting ruled out before lock made that Lakers/Spurs game much more chalky but it did hit. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the right pieces around that game to get there. Tonight we have a massive 10 game slate and the pricing overall on DK is on point as I don’t see many glaring values.
+EV Strategy:
- Late Swap: We just got the news that Lebron is out tonight and AD is questionable. The AD piece of this is huge as even more Lakers plays will open up if he gets ruled out. Since this game is at 8:00 I think we may get this news a little before lock so monitor this one closely and plan ahead of time if we don’t get news before lock.
Game Stacks:
- LAK v OKC – On a slate this large I don’t think you need to worry about game stacking quite as much but a little correlation in your lineups never hurts. The Lakers v. OKC game is going to be super chalky as I thought the OKC side had some good values to begin with and now with Lebron out the Lakers have a lot of options. I do like this game but make sure that if you are playing Westbrook and Shai you differentiate your lineups in other ways. I do like Giddey as a lower owned option in this game.
- Memphis v Portland: This game I think will go underowned as the stars salaries are a little high. Ja Morant is priced up at $9600 which I think will have him coming in very low owned. There are also a lot of mid range pieces in this game that you can correlate together. I don’t mind correlation play with Ja and Mccollum or Lillard. If you are looking for a lower owned play in this game I like Steven Adams (who should correlate well with Ja). There are also the chalkier cheap pieces to fill out your roster in Melton or Bane. As you can see, lots of ways to go here with stacking this game.
GPP Plays:
- I’ll start out by saying I like the chalk spend ups tonight in Giannis and Westbrook. I’ll probably have some of each of these plays but maybe not in the same lineups to avoid that high ownership (specifically, in single entry contests you probably don’t want this much high priced chalk on the same lineup. Note: Single entry lineups seem to have the chalky plays get steamed up and can be 10% to 20% higher owned than in MME tourneys)
- Steven Adams – I love Steven Adams tonight, he’s priced down at $5300 and plays in my favorite game environment of the night. He’s also started the year with every game over 33 fpts…that will work for a $5300 price tag. The minute upside is also there as he played 34 minutes last game. I’m hoping he comes in lower owned than Achiuwa as he’s a great pivot off the chalk at Center.
- Daniel Gafford – Another pivot off the Achiuwa chalk is Daniel Gafford. He was at 1.26 fpm last year but has had a few down games to start the year. If he gets off to a good start I can see the minutes getting up from the low 20’s to the high 20’s. At a $4900 price tag I just see a ton of upside at this price for GPPs.
- Kevin Durant – This year it seems like Durant is coming in as a low owned GPP play every night. He is priced up a bit and in a tough matchup but it’s KD, I don’t think the match-up matters much with superstars as he can get his shot off against anyone. He always has 70+ fpt upside and is a pivot away from a chalky Giannis if you want to get different.
GPP Fades:
- Vanvleet – As of now he is showing up as being pretty chalky. I don’t mind a fade here. The projections are showing him as a good play but he hasn’t been shooting as much this year as OG has taken over the reigns as the number 1 option. Also, the $7800 price tag doesn’t seem like much of a value to me. I’ll do a direct pivot to a low owned Mccollum in the Portland v Memphis game.
- Shai (SGA) – This is a little tougher fade as his projection/value is popping off the page. I just don’t trust this OKC team and it is a back to back for both OKC and the Lakers so there’s a chance this game is a little ugly. There are also some great pivots to D’Angelo Russell, Cole Anthony or RJAX.
Running out of time today with day job craziness and a 10 game slate so I’ll leave it at that for now.
Hope everyone enjoys the games tonight!
Max
