Last night was a fun slate with Kennard and Terrance Mann being on the winning lineup (good luck in getting to that lineup). Cash was profitable but GPP life was once again rough. Durant and Lillard both underwhelmed and that was enough to end my night for GPPs. Tonight we have a nice little 5 game slate on tap. This does make it a little easier to have a more condensed pool for MME. Keep in mind there are a number of questionable players as of this writing (Embiid, Lebron) who could flip this slate on it’s head if either gets ruled out. I’m assuming they both play for the purposes of this article.
+EV Strategy
- On slates like tonight, I do find that their is more or less a correct cash construction since their just aren’t as many options as the larger slates to choose from. This means I try to get an edge by finding weaker opponents through game selection and sifting through the lobby to make sure I’m not taking on pros in my head to heads. I try to find the opponents that are going to make the construction mistakes in cash.
- Late Swap: We have an island game as the late night hammer in Denver v Utah. Be careful with late swapping on an island game…if your assumption on starters or which questionable player plays goes wrong you are going to have limited options and could find yourself having to give up quite a bit in projection on your lineups.
Game Stacks
- LAL v San Antonio: (Note: Lebron is Questionable but I do expect him to play) Even with Lebron questionable I feel this is a good game stack. This game has a high total and a tight spread which we always like to see. Also, there are a lot of nice price tags on both sides that creates upside for each player. The San Antonio side has 3 players (Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson and Poetl) who could all smash at those price tags. I plan to have more of San Antonio in my pool than the Lakers but the Lakers have some low owned bring backs in Lebron, AD and Russ. If we get late news that Lebron sits and we can get a low owned Russell Westbrook without Lebron that looks like a great situation to potentially prepare for.
Fades:
- Houston Rockets: This Houston team is a joke. They also play on the road with a low total against a good Mavs defense. In addition, the price tags all seem a bit inflated. The one play you could maybe make a case for is Jalen Green, but even he seems a bit overpriced. I’ll be almost fully fading this team and I’ll be underweight on this game as a whole, hoping for a blowout.
- Rudy Gobert: I know he’s had some monster games so far this year but I just don’t see this continuing. Also, the minutes have been somewhat of a concern as I don’t think he has the upside for more than 33 minutes. He’s also going up against The Joker, who draws fouls better than anyone in the league not named James Harden. I’ll side with D Mitch from this team as my spend and fade a somewhat chalky Gobert.
GPP Plays:My favorite GPP play of the slate is Donovan Mitchell – the guy can chuck as evidenced by 25 shot attempts 2 games ago. In glossing through ownership projections it looks like he is going to be under 10% owned on a 5 game slate. This helps you get different if playing a chalky Michael Porter Jr. on the other side or obviously you can pair him with Jokic (although you may need to fit in some ugly cheapies if you try this).
- Donovan Mitchell – He may be my favorite GPP play of the slate. As of this writing, he’s projected under 10% ownership and just had a game where he chucked it 25 times. He hasn’t put it all together yet this year but it’s coming. The match-up also doesn’t scare me as he’s lit up this Denver team multiple times (see 2020 Playoff Series vs Denver). Also, if you want to play a chalky Michael Porter Jr, DMitch helps differentiate with a low owned play while adding correlation. Or, you can pair him with Jokic, but that does eat up a lot of cap space.
- Russell Westbrook (Brodie) – I must admit that I’ve always had a love affair with Russell Westbrook. The guy plays harder than anyone in the league yet is constantly criticized. In my book he’s a Hall of Famer and hope he gets a ring but that’s a conversation for another day. Anyway, for tonight he has an affordable price tag and it feels like he’s starting to get comfortable in his new role. The guy is still a triple double waiting to happen. In addition, I’m seeing projections of 2%-3% ownership being tossed around? If he’s anywhere near that ownership get overweight. Add in that there is that slight chance that Lebron sits, in which case this is an eruption spot for Westbrook.
- Jakob Poetl – As I referenced above, the spurs as a whole are underpriced. Poetl’s minutes projection around the industry seems low as I’d have him at 32+ minutes in a game I’d expect to go big. Poetl is close to a fantasy point a minute player throughout his career. Do the math and that puts him at close to 30 fantasy points which makes a 5600 price tag on DK too low. His ownership also doesn’t seem to be getting out of hand with some stud pay-up options at Center eating up ownership.
I do expect a lot of news so keep track of my updates on the core plays up until lock. Note: I have two kids under 4 so my apologies in advance if I’m not the most active on discord. I’ll try to respond to any questions as time permits.
Good luck tonight.
Max
