After a crazy weekend of gluttonous eating and drinking in Louisville, I’m excited to get back into NBA DFS Grind Mode. It’s crazy how behind in research you feel when you miss a few NBA slates in a row but I hope to get caught up quick with a nice Monday 9 gamer on tap. Hopefully everyone had a profitable weekend and if not…I’ll try to help you get back on track. Keep in mind, even if playing GPPs correctly you may lose upwards of 80% of slates. We are playing for that 1 big bink that will more than cover your losses. If we hit 1-2 big GPPs a year that typically will make you profitable on the year.
+EV strategy
- Late Swap – Monday is a large slate with games starting all through the night. Remember to take advantage of late swap, there will be plays that pop up in the later games that will be low owned due to how few people use late swap…take advantage of this. There already looks to be a large number of players questionable so a lot is going to change right up to lock and thereafter. Follow my core plays for my latest stances as some of this article may change pending news.
- We are starting to have an idea of how teams/players will look for DFS purposes, but remember it’s only a 2-3 game sample. Projections will continue to improve as we get more data throughout the season but this early in the year we can still deviate from projections a bit more than usual as projections are being based on a very small sample size.
Game Stacks:
- MIL v IND: This game has a high total and a tight spread. On the Milwaukee side we know they are shorthanded with injuries to Jrue and BROLO. There are a bunch of plays on Milwaukee from Giannis all the way to some cheaper options in Pat Conn and Grayson Allen. What I like about this stack is the Indiana bring backs are extremely low owned. My favorite bring back would be Sabonis but Myles turner is also a good value at his $5.5K price tag.
- NOP v MIN: Some of the studs in this game just have way too low ownership. I think we may get D’Angelo Russell, KAT and Ingram all below 10% ownership. If that’s the case a game stack here could really differentiate and if this game stays close being correlated with 3 or 4 plays in this game makes sense. This is for GPPs only but I like all the spend ups in this game..Ingram does seem slightly overpriced but that is negated by the huge ownership discount we are getting.
GPP Plays
These plays are meant to be used for single entry and large field GPPs (not for cash). These are some of the lower owned plays you can plug in to help differentiate your lineup with some other chalkier plays.
- Kevin Durant – Durant is priced appropriately but his ownership is in the 10% range…if he is going to be a third of the ownership of harden he’s a great direct pivot on the same team to get leverage off that harden ownership. Also, the matchup is a good one as DC hasn’t played any defense for years.
- Damian Lillard – Dame is always a great GPP play, tonight his price tag is somewhat depressed ($9300) and he’s coming in at under 10% ownership. He’s the late night hammer and I don’t mind adding in some correlation and running it back with PG13. If this game goes off the rails we know that Dame and PG13 will be the beneficiaries. It’s Dame Time.
GPP Fades
- Jeremy Lamb – This guy is just always streaky. His current minute projection is 22 minutes. It does look like as of now he is the chalkiest of the cheaper options. I always like fading players that have low minute projections and high ownership. His ownership will probably change as we get more news but as of now I’m fine with a lamb fade.
- MIA v ORL – sometimes with a big slate I try to find a game I really don’t like to condense my player pool. This game is ugly. I could see Orlando getting blown out. Also, Miami seems to share the wealth so for fantasy purposes I don’t like targeting them. I don’t see any glaring values on Miami and I don’t like this Orlando team in this matchup with a total hovering around 100.
We are waiting on a lot of news so a lot of opinions could change should Vucevic, Beal, Horford or Jaylen Brown sit. Please follow the core plays for my updates. I typically like 6-9 game slates since there are usually a bunch of good pivots off the chalk. I’ll be entering most of the 20 max contests tonight on Draftkings. I hope to see you all at the top of the leaderboard’s.
Happy Grinding.
Max
