Happy New Years everyone! 2021 was an extremely profitable year for me in DFS but now we get a clean slate for 2022 to try and further grow our bankroll. It’s a snowy Monday here on the East Coast. With NBA and NFL in full swing it’s not a bad time to get snowed in with some beers and hot chocolate and watch the games this evening. I’ll be out sledding with the kiddos and enjoying the first snow of the season. For tonight we get a large 10 game NBA slate so let’s dig in to see what edges we can find.
Significant Players Already Ruled Out:
- Bam Adebayo
- Damian Lillard
- Paul George
- Spencer Dinwiddie
- Cole Anthony
- Jerami Grant
- John Collins
- CJ McCollum
- Dillon Brooks
- Chuma Okeke
- Isaiah Stewart
- Monte Morris
- Ivaca Zubac
- Montrezl Harrell
- Kyle Anderson
- Jalen Suggs
- Derrick Walton
- De’Anthony Melton
- Frank Jackson
- Corey Joseph
- Jeff Green
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Alperen Sengun
- PJ Washington
- John Konchar
- Alex Caruso
- Matisse Thybule
- Javonte Green
- Brandon Boston
- Luke Kennard
- Armani Brooks
- Christian Wood
- Kevin Porter Jr.
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Brandon Ingram
- Jonas Valanciunas (Probable)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Doubtful)
- Karl Anthony-Towns (Doubtful)
- Khris Middleton
- De’Angelo Russell (Doubtful)
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Duncan Robinson (Doubtful)
- PJ Tucker (Doubtful)
- Gabe Vincent (Doubtful)
- Eric Gordon
- Dwayne Dedmon (Doubtful)
- Hassan Whiteside
- Cody Zeller
- Nicolas Batum
- Max Strus
+EV Strategy:
- With a New Year just starting we should set some goals for our DFS play in 2022. Since I see cash games getting tougher and tougher (especially in NBA DFS) the bigger edges appear to be in GPPs. I’ll be focusing more and more of my play on large and small field GPPs. In looking at my results from last year, GPPs had an 11% profit while cash games (double ups and head to heads) had around a 7% profit. Also, surprisingly I had a 17% profit in showdown contests in 2021. Analyzing past results is important to help guide what contests we choose to play each night. I’ll be trying to get more and more money down in GPPs and showdown contests to maximize my profit potential for 2022 based on my past results. Try to look at and analyze past results (I typically use Rototracker to do this).
GPP Game Stacks:
- Atlanta Vs. Portland – This game is one of the last game’s of the night which helps on a slate this large to keep flexibility on your rosters. Portland is extremely short handed with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic all expected to sit this one out. This opens up a ton of value on the Portland side. I’d wait to see a starting line-up but you can pretty much play anyone that starts (except Tony Snell). Simons, Norm Powell, Little and Nance are my favorite plays and if Dennis Smith starts he could be a sneaky play you need to win GPPs. On Atlanta, they are missing John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic tonight. Trae Young looks like a great bring back from Atlanta, he’s at 1.37 fantasy points per minute and 36% usage with Collins off the floor. He’s priced up so that should help keep the ownership down. I also don’t mind Clint Capela as he sees a small boost with Collins off the floor. This game has a 226 point total so I expect lots of fantasy points with both teams short-handed.
- Minnesota Vs. Los Angeles – The late night hammer has a couple more teams that are dealing with injury problems tonight. Minnesota is expected to be without De’Angelo Russell and Karl Anthony-Towns. This opens up a lot of usage. With Anthony Edwards back I like going to him, hopefully we get him somewhat low owned. Naz Reid is chalk but a hard piece to get away from since he has Power Forward/Center eligibility on DK. Pat Beverly and Malik Beasley also look like good GPP targets as part of a game stack. On the Clippers side they’re without Paul George, Luke Kennard and Zubac. This opens up tons of minutes and usage. Reggie Jackson is priced up but offers upside at a $7,300 price tag. My favorite play on the Clippers is Marcus Morris. He’s been taking over this team since Paul George went down. Morris is right around a fantasy point per minute player with George and Co. off the floor and is seeing huge minutes of late. He seems safe with high upside in a great match-up. Terrence Mann also seems sneaky as part of a game stack. He’s at .86 fantasy points per minute with George and Co. off the floor but does have the ability to fill up the stat sheet. I’ll be holding a lot of roster spots for these late games and late swapping as the night goes on.
GPP Plays:
- Mason Plumlee – I’ve been playing a lot of Mason Plumlee lately but that’s because the price tag isn’t increasing and neither is the ownership. Tonight he’s a little thinner of a play with Miles Bridges back but he should still see around 30 minutes of playing time. If we look at the game log he’s had some foul trouble issues and blowouts that have contributed to the minutes being reduced. I still think if we get a close game here with no foul trouble that Plumlee could match Gafford’s minutes on the other side (32-34 minutes). He’s at around .9 fantasy points per minute this year and just has a lot of upside since he contributes in all statistical categories. If he’s coming in single digit owned I’ll be getting overweight in GPPs.
- Lamelo Ball – Another game I’m targeting tonight is the Hornets Vs. Wiz match-up. This is the first game of the night but it should be a close game with a 230 point total. Lamelo is priced fairly at $9,500 but the upside is immense. He also has PG/SG eligibility on DK making it easier to fit him into line-ups. The minutes have been all over the place for Lamelo recently as he’s been coming back from injury and he’s also dealt with some blowouts. The best part about this play is he’s projected for around 5-7% ownership. If he’s anywhere near single digit owned come lock I’ll be well overweight in my GPP exposures and don’t mind Beal or Gafford as a bring back from the Wiz side.
YOLO Play:
- Dennis Smith Jr. – Dennis Smith has always been a solid fantasy point producer throughout his career and this year is no different. He’s at around a fantasy point per minute when we take Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic off the court. The issue with Smith is the minutes are somewhat uncertain. If he starts he could smash a $5,500 price tag but even coming off the bench he should get all the usage and could easily put up a big score in 25-30 minutes. We will need to monitor ownership and starting lineups but if he’s low owned and gets the start I love going here for GPPs and he can be included as part of a game stack.
GPP Fade:
- Jimmy Butler – Early ownership projections have Jimmy at close to 20% which probably comes down some before lock. I don’t like this spot for Mr. Butler, with Lowry and Herro now starting I expect some usage to creep away from Jimmy. In addition, he’s priced all the way up at $10,000 on DK. At that price tag there are just other spend-ups I’d rather allocate salary too. Lastly, Miami plays on the road against the Warriors who are very good team defensively (especially with Draymond back). The Miami team total is 102 which is pretty low for today’s NBA. I’ll be off Jimmy tonight as my fade of the day.
There’s a lot of news we are waiting for as Brandon Ingram is listed as questionable which is something to keep an eye on as to what value opens up. Also, as I’m finishing writing this article I see Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. have been ruled out. This should open up some Houston value options (Daniel Thies, Ja’sean Tate and Jalen Green) that we can look to as well. It should be a fun slate with tons of potential news as usual. I’m snowed in so what better way to spend the night then sweating some NBA DFS.
Hopefully we can get 2022 started off with some big scores!
Max
