Hope everyone had a fun weekend as the sports calendar hit it’s peak. Basketball took a bit of a backseat to the NFL Playoffs and UFC. The Chiefs versus Bills game was incredible and probably a top 5 game I’ve ever seen in all of sports. The NFL sweats were fun this weekend with lots of Chiefs/Bills stacks but now I’m ready to dive back into the NBA DFS Streets. Tonight we get a 4 game slate which I don’t mind as it makes researching a bit easier on this Monday.
Significant Players Currently Listed Questionable:
- Deandre Ayton (Doubtful)
- Rudy Gobert (Doubtful)
- Zach Lavine
- Mike Conley
- Kemba Walker
- Caris Levert
- Devonte’ Graham
- Mitchell Robinson
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Hassan Whiteside
- Rajon Rondo
- Nerlens Noel (Probable)
For a 4 game slate there’s some really important injury news we are waiting on. Almost every team on the slate has injuries to monitor so the plays listed could change significantly come lock.
+EV Strategy:
- This slate looks like late swapping is going to provide a huge edge. There’s some important news we’re going to need in the Utah vs. Phoenix match-up which is the last game of the night. We’ll need to have a late swap plan as there are a number of scenarios that could unfold with this many important players listed questionable. Also, I want to push looking at various DFS sites to determine where the best action is. I’ve been noticing more and more that Yahoo is offering the best payout structures, the least rake and the most overlay. I’m trying to play more on Yahoo as I expect long term for it to be more profitable than playing on DK or Fanduel. It does take some adjusting to use a new interface but I think it should be profitable in the long run.
GPP Game Stacks:
- Tonight I’ll be building my rosters around some of the later games in Indiana vs. New Orleans and Utah vs. Phoenix. This will help give my rosters some added flexibility to be able to late swap should we not get the injury news by the time lock rolls around. I also hate the New York vs. Cleveland match-up as it should be a slow game with a low total, in addition it’s the first game of the night so it seems like a great game to fade. Indiana may have some solid value should Caris Levert get ruled out. I’d be looking at Chris Duarte and Goga as decent plays on Indiana and Goga is playable even if Levert is active. On New Orleans we already have Brandon Ingram ruled out and Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable. Should Graham get ruled out this would open up big minutes for Garrett Temple and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They’re both priced under $4K on Draftkings and would look like great value pieces should Graham sit tonight. If injury news breaks right, the Indiana vs. New Orleans game should be a fun game to stack. The other game I’m targeting this evening is the last game of the night (Utah vs. Phoenix). This game also has major injury news we are waiting on as Hassan Whiteside, Bojan Bogdanovic and Deandre Ayton are all listed as questionable. Utah is already without Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert so they’re going to be short-handed. If they lose one or two more bodies from their rotation all the starters could see extended minutes and bumps in usage. We’ll need to keep rosters flexible to account for this news. On the Phoenix side, if Ayton is ruled out we can look to Javale (YOLO Play of the Day!) or Biyombo again, although they are both priced up now. Phoenix is also without Jae Crowder and Cam Payne tonight so their rotation is starting to get condensed as all players should see a few extra minutes. Cam Johnson is looking like a great play tonight but he’ll be very chalky. Fade the early game…stack the late games….print money.
GPP Plays:
- Jordan Clarkson – Clarkson has somewhat underwhelmed over the last week with Donovan Mitchell out of the line-up. The big issue is he comes off the bench so the minutes are somewhat capped around 30 minutes (he hasn’t been closing games recently). Tonight he’s priced all the way up at $6,700, which I expect to drive down ownership. We’ll need to monitor Bojan Bogdanovic’s status, but should he get ruled out Clarkson could be looking at massive usage as the main offensive threat on Utah. With Bojan, Donovan Mitchell and Gobert off the floor Clarkson sees a huge bump in rates as he’s at 1.25 fantasy points per minute and an eye popping 35% usage rate. It’s a small sample so I checked his rates over the last 2 seasons without these players and he’s actually at 1.28 fantasy points per minute so I think the data is accurate. I’m hoping we get the Bojan news after lock but I’ll be trying to jam in Clarkson in most of my rosters with the expectation that Bojan sits.
- Jonas Valanciunas – JVAL is projected for moderate ownership tonight at around 25% but on a four game slate I don’t mind that. He sees a slight usage boost (2.5%) with Ingram off the floor and is expected to be the center piece of the offense for New Orleans tonight. He’s in good form as he’s posted over 40 fantasy points in back to back games and has a reasonable price tag at $8,300 on DK. What I like most is the match-up with Goga Bitadze. I’m going with the eye test here but I saw Kevon Looney dominate Goga inside just a couple nights ago and put up almost 40 fantasy points. Goga looked lost rebounding and defensively. Valanciunas should smash in this match-up and we already know that Valanciunas can put up fantasy points. On the year with Ingram off the floor Jonas is at 1.25 fantasy points per minute and should play over 30 minutes tonight. The upside for Valanciunas is massive tonight and I’ll be getting overweight in my GPP exposures.
YOLO Play:
- My You Only Live Once play tonight for large field tournaments is Javale Mcgee. Everyone is going to hop off the Javale train tonight with Biyombo playing the majority of the Center minutes for Phoenix off the bench. In addition Javale is priced up at $5,100, but this has driven ownership way down as he’s expected to garner 2-4% ownership tonight. Javale is an elite fantasy points per minute option at 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Ayton and Crowder off the floor. Javale just put up 35 fantasy points in 18 minutes last game, so even without getting big minutes he can 7x a $5,100 price tag. I still feel there’s the potential for Javale to see over 20 minutes and for tournaments at low ownership he has slate breaking potential. This is definitely not a cash game play but for large field GPPs it should be easy to get overweight on Javale.
This is a fun little four game slate we have on tap with lots of news that should shake-up the slate quite a bit. Hopefully we can get this week started off on the right foot and make some solid profits this evening.
Max
