Hope everyone had a great weekend. There are so many sports going these days that it’s hard to keep up with. The College Football National Championship is tonight and the NFL Playoffs start next week while NBA keeps chugging along. It’s a great time to be a sports fan. 2022 has not been kind to me so far as I’m off to a brutal start in DFS. I have to remember we’re only 10 days into 2022 out of 365 so the sample size is small. I’ll stick to my process as I trust 4 years of results over 1 week of losses. I took the weekend off from NBA DFS so I’m still getting caught up on news. Tonight we get a fun 7 game NBA slate so let’s see what edges we can find for GPPs.
Significant Players Listed Questionable:
- Malcolm Brogdon
- Kemba Walker
- Evan Fournier
- Pat Connaughton
- Nerlens Noel
- Lamarcus Aldridge
The injury list at this time in the day (11 AM) is pretty minimal considering what we’ve seen in NBA DFS the past few weeks. I’m sure we’ll get a few more players listed questionable once the afternoon injury report comes out.
+EV Strategy:
- Contest Selection is becoming more and more important especially for GPPs. In cash games I’m always looking for new opponents in the lobby and trying to play single entry double-ups and 50/50s. For GPPs it’s more complex. The contests with the weakest players seem to have very top heavy payout structures while some of the better sized GPPs with flatter payout structures are contests that are filled with pros. Make sure you are entering contests that fit your bankroll. If you are yet to be restricted from the under $5 GPPs, I suggest entering those low dollar GPPs. The $4 dollar 20 max tournament on Draftkings is a great contest to enter to help grow your bankroll against some weaker competition.
GPP Game Stacks:
- For GPPs, my favorite game this evening is the Sixers versus the Rockets. This game should be fast paced and if the Rockets can keep it competitive I see some very reasonable price tags on the Rockets tonight. Christian Wood is priced at $7,000 on DK and if this game stays competitive he has some major upside. He’s at 1.18 fantasy points per minute this year and should be getting around 32 minutes tonight with potential for more. Kevin Porter Jr. also looks like a great GPP play at a $6,200 price tag. He’s around a fantasy point per minute player and should get 32-34 minutes in this spot. Philly is tough defensively but should the game stay close (currently a 10 point spread) there are a lot of Rockets with reasonable price tags that should pay off their salaries at low ownership. The Rockets as a team are not for cash games but I like game stacking this game for tournaments. On the Philly side, we can look to Joel Embiid who’s projected to have 20% ownership. This ownership numbers seems modest considering Embiid just destroyed the Rockets a few nights ago and put up 73 fantasy points. I also don’t mind Seth Curry tonight, although the price tag is starting to climb at $6,600. Curry has been playing 35+ minutes of late since Maxey went down. The last 2 games he’s put up 50 and 43 fantasy points. When I dig in, he’s running the point for this team and is seeing a bump to his assist numbers with 7 and 12 assists his last 2 games. At a macro level we have some reasonable prices in this game with major upside and low ownership which is what we’re looking for in GPPs.
GPP Plays:
- Dejounte Murray – I have a soft spot in my heart for Dejounte and he just keeps on producing. He’s priced at $9,700 on DK and is expected to be around 10% owned tonight. With Derrick White off the court this year, Murray is at 1.47 fantasy points per minute and 27% usage. He’s gone over 50 fantasy points in all 3 games since he came off the COVID list while taking over 20 field goal attempts in each of those games. Murray has a high floor since he fills up the stat sheet (much like Russell Westbrook) and isn’t reliant on any single category for fantasy points. This is my favorite type of play in GPPs (high floor, high ceiling, low ownership) and I hope the ownership stays in check. Dejounte in MSG? Sign me up as I’ll be well over the field tonight.
- Donovan Mitchell – Donovan Mitchell is priced at $9,400 on DK and with Gobert off the court this price tag feels a little too cheap. Mitchell is at 1.35 fantasy points per minute and 34% usage with Gobert off the floor this year. He’s playing big minutes with Utah still short handed and is coming off a 56 point fantasy game. Also, 6 of Mitchell’s last 7 games have been for over 45 fantasy points so he’s exhibiting a high floor of late. In addition, Mitchell is only expected to garner 10% ownership tonight. A game versus Detroit does have some blowout potential but that is baked into the ownership projection. I also never mind plays from the team expected to win in a blowout as Donovan Mitchell will need to contribute in a big way should this game blow out.
YOLO Play:
- For large field GPPs, I don’t mind taking some shots on Alex Len. This guy has tormented me in DFS but he’s close to a fantasy point per minute guy throughout his career. He started for Sacramento last game playing 23 minutes and losing a few minutes to a blowout at the end of the game. Cleveland has a big front court so I expect a couple extra minutes from Len tonight should he continue starting. He’s coming off back to back 30 fantasy point performances and is garnering around 5% ownership this evening. At a $3,800 price tag and low ownership he’s easy to get overweight on in large-field GPPs.
GPP Fade:
- Alec Burks – Fades are tricky and I will definitely have some shares in GPPs but if Burks is going to be 30% owned I’m fine coming in underweight here. Burks is playing big minutes of late but his rates take a hit when he shares the court with Julius Randle. This year while playing alongside Randle, Burks is at .73 fantasy points per minute which is quite a drop off from his typical .9 fantasy point per minute rate. He also gets a tough match-up with San Antonio and Dejounte Murray. He’s priced at $5,600 on DK, which seems like a discounted price tag but he’s only but up 22 and 27 fantasy points his last 2 games. I’ll be underweight on a chalky Burks in GPPs this evening and hope it doesn’t burn me.
This should be a fun slate. There’s a lot of Portland value I haven’t touched on yet. The issue with it is Brooklyn is fully healthy and could blow out a short handed Blazers team. It’s a tricky slate for GPPs with a couple potential blowout spots that we’ll need to decide how to handle. Hopefully we can get the week started with some green screens.
Max
