Last night did not go according to plan, I had way too much Westbrook and Steph to sink my lineups. Main slate was a disaster but I did get almost back to even on the evening by going full degenerate mode and entering the turbo and showdown slates. Tonight we get a fun 9 gamer with lots of injury news that will shape the slate. Keep in mind I’m writing this early in the day on so a lot could change before (and after) lock.
Injuries:
Here are the major injuries we are going to be monitoring:
- Myles Turner – Questionable
- Bam Adebayo – Questionable
- Jimmy Butler – Questionable
- Porzingis – Questionable
- Anthony Edwards – Questionable
- Jaylen Brown – Questionable
These are just the most impactful injuries and will shape the slate based on who is in/out.
+EV Strategy:
- Tonight 8 of the 9 games start between 7:00 and 8:00 EST. We should get most/all of the news before lock (although I could see the Porzingis news coming after lock). This makes this slate somewhat unique in that their won’t be much of a late swap edge. I’ve been banking on re-building lineups post lock but will need to change that process for tonight with so many games within 1 hour of each other.
Game Stacks:
- Atlanta vs. Indiana – This one stuck out pretty quickly to me. We have a total close to 220 and a few potential injuries that open up some value. Indiana is my favorite side from this game. We have Justin Holiday ruled out and Myles Turner listed as questionable. Turner did not play last game and if he’s out again we would get some great spend-ups and value from this team. Sabonis’ rates increase without Turner (he’s at 1.2 fpm on the year without Turner) and Brogdon still looks underpriced on DK. Also, Levert (5,400) is one of my favorite plays of the slate. He failed in this spot 2 nights ago but the price tag is too low for the minutes and upside he brings. We also should get some value options in McConnell and Duarte (keep an eye out for who starts). On the Atlanta side we have Bogdan Bogdanovic out and Cam Reddish Questionable which will open up some wing value. The Atlanta bring backs from this game I expect to be low owned. The price tag on Capela is getting a little too high for his season long rates but I do like the spot for Trae Young. He’s not priced at a discount but the ownership looks reasonable (10% projected – I’m guessing he’s single digit owned). It looks as though Nate McMillan is going to give the starters heavy minutes, just last game Trae played 39 minutes. Trae is at 1.3 FPM without Bogdan and has an elite 35% usage with Bogdan off the floor. I love pairing him with Levert and/or Brogdon in GPPs. John Collins also has an affordable price tag in this match-up at moderate ownership and if we are value hunting, Huerter should be locked into heavy minutes. I’ll be stacking this game in a number of ways in my GPP builds.
GPP Plays:
I mentioned a few plays in the game stack section above so I won’t list those again but I like Trae in GPPs as a bring back with the chalkier Brogdon and Levert Indiana plays.
- Daniel Gafford – I’ve been high on this guy since last year and he’s finally starting to show his potential. With Beal on the court this season he’s at 1.17 fantasy points per minute, which is elite. The biggest issue with Gafford is the minutes. Lately he’s getting more of the Center minutes share from Harrell. His range in minutes is 22-28 minutes depending on if he closes out the game. Playing Minnesota seems like a spot that we see Gafford get up closer to 30 minutes in order to match-up with KAT. at a $4800 price tag if he gets over 25 minutes he should smash. I see the $4800 price tag set based on his minutes floor and still leaves room for ceiling should the minutes increase. I expect single digit ownership on Gafford tonight, I’ll be getting overweight in my GPP allocations.
- Kelly Oubre – This one definitely feels like I’m chasing a few good games but there are some other reasons to like this play tonight. The Small Forward position on DK has very few plays I like. In addition, the projected ownership on Oubre is sub 5%. He could be a major differentiator in GPPs at a weak position and low ownership. I’ll admit the price tag of $5400 feels high but he’s played over 30 minutes in 3 of his last 4 games. I don’t see that changing tonight as I expect a match-up with Milwaukee to go small. He’s had over 29 fantasy points in 4 straight games and has at least 17 field goal attempts in each of those games. I like the upside here at a weak SF position.
- Nikola Jokic – It’s starting to feel like I should just leave him as my cover boy for every article I write. He’s the best fantasy producer in the league this season with a 1.93 FPM rate with Michael Porter Jr. off the floor. Even if this game blows out, it will be Jokic doing the heavy lifting for Denver. The craziest part is his ownership never seems too high. I’m expecting Giannis to get the most ownership from the spend-ups in a good match-up so this should help keep the Jokic ownership in check. I’ll be sure to have some rosters where I cram in both Giannis and Jokic assuming some more value opens up throughout the afternoon.
Fades:
- Boston vs. Philly – This game isn’t getting much ownership and for good reason. Based on salaries I don’t see any plays sticking out assuming Jaylen Brown is healthy. This game has a low total (207 point total) and the pricing on Philly has not been adjusted to account for Embiid playing, so everyone is priced a bit too high. On the Boston side they have a brutal match-up versus a tough Philly defense. On a 9 game slate I will be crossing these teams off entirely and plan on having no plays from this game in my player pool.
- Chris Duarte – This is just an ownership play as there is very little comfortable value on this slate. If Duarte is getting steamed up to over 30% projected ownership I’ll be coming in underweight in GPPs. Duarte should get the minutes here but with Levert, Brogdon and Sabonis all on the court the usage should be limited. Duarte is around .75 FPM when playing with Brogdon, Levert and Sabonis. Even if he gets you 22-24 fantasy points I don’t think you’ll need that in order to win a GPP. A nice pivot on the same team is TJ McConnell who in my opinion has a little more upside at half the ownership and a similar price tag. Keep an eye out for starting lineups, if we get late news that TJ McConnell is starting I’ll be well overweight on TJ and underweight on Duarte.
This is a fun slate with a lot of injury news we are waiting on that will shape the slate. Make sure to check on my GPP Core Plays before lock as their’s a decent chance my thoughts change as injury news trickles in. Let’s get this week turned around and make some money tonight.
Max
