It’s finally here the NBA playoffs are upon us and I’m extremely excited. It’s been amazing growing with you guys and I’m so thankful for all the support. I’m pushing my skills to the max by writing and I’m breaking down all my thoughts for the NBA playoffs: Betting, DFS, and just my opinions on all the teams.
It’s funny how when you break down the teams to target in fantasy who are bad defensively per position most of the time they end up being teams outside the playoffs which is very telling. Especially in the West.
Follow me on twitter @dfs_Joey if you liked the article for updates throughout the playoffs. I will also be putting out NFL tweet during the offseason to help with the upcoming season!
Make sure you follow along throughout the playoffs I will continue to provide MKF and PP plays articles.
Warriors vs Clippers
Obviously, I think the Warriors end up taking this series but it could end up being a rough series for them that might affect the rest of the playoffs. I’m putting a small unit bet on the Clippers for fun.
Warriors
Odds to win the series: -7430
Odds to win the Western Conference: -380
Odds to win the NBA Championship: -230
I’m not betting on the Warriors at all, the odds just are too bad. I think the wild wild west could end up being wide out this year.
They are the clear favorites to come out of the west they are currently -210 to win the championship compared to +170 by picking the field according to mybookie.today, which are crazy odds. This Warriors team is stacked from head to toe but they lack depth and injuries may play a role in their defeat if they can’t stay healthy. You can’t predict injuries, but in what will be a 2 month stretch with a max 28 games injuries may come up. They have the potential to have an extremely difficult road to the finals. They start by getting banged up by the Clippers they need to take of them early in 4 or 5 games a 7 game series might take too big of a toll on them especially with no bench. Next, they could have the Thunder or the winner of the Jazz/Rockets. Then the western conference finals for whoever they play. Finally in the Finals they will either have the best defensive team in the league the Bucks with Giannis or the 76ers if they get Embiid healthy all bang you around teams. I honestly don’t think they win it all.
Records during injuries
Steph: 5-7 with a 28 point lose to the Thunder and a 35 point loss to the Mavs
Klay: 1-2; with a 33 point blowout to the Celtics
Durant: 2-1
Green: 9-6
Boogie: 3-3 (Since he was back playing)
I’m not sure how losing one allstar should make such a difference because they have 4 more but depending on the star it’s huge
Interesting note: The addition of Boogie looks to decrease offensive efficiency from 117 to 114 but makes them one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the league. Moving them from 112 to 105.
*Curry rolled his ankle in the second to last game of the season. There is cause for concern because Curry’s history of ankle injuries but Kerr says Curry is fine so we have to believe him. Curry was planning on sitting out the last game of the season anyway but it’s going to be in the back of everyone’s mind.
Clippers
Odds to win the series: +3940 (I love the flier here for a couple bucks for fun)
Odds to win the Western Conference: +8000
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +15000
Looks like the Clippers will be playing the Warriors round 1. Call me crazy but I could see an upset coming here. If you look at the game logs they don’t tell the story at all. Neither team played each other post Clippers trade at full strength. The only issue I have with this upset is that the Clippers are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams by volume so they could easily get blown away when the Warriors get hot. The thing is that they rank 28th in the league in 3s attempted, but are 2nd in 3-point percentage. Leading to very efficient offense. The X factor in this matchup I believe is the bench for the Clippers led by 3 time sixth man of the year Lou Williams and rising star Montrezl Harrel. They are number 1 in the league in points, assists, efficiency and defensive efficiency. Warriors are the clear favorite here but the Clippers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after everyone counted them out. They seemed to be tanking with the Harris trade, but this team has actually played a lot better without Tobias Harris then with him.
*Note: Yeah, the Warriors should win this series but the odds you get for the Clippers are just too sweet to pass up. I’m just throwing $5 on the for fun to turn it into $196.
Nuggets vs Spurs
This will be an ugly series but the Nuggets should take it. Both teams rank bottom 10 in the league in pace.
Nuggets
Odds to win the series: -245 (I love this play and I think I’m overconfident compared to the field)
Odds to win the Western Conference: +800
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +1700
I had faith in them to go far if they were able to sneak into the 1 seed but they weren’t able to. They ended up with the 2 seed. This team is built for a run but maybe not this year. I think it’s wide open for them to win next year and I’ll be picking them in the off season to win it all. They fill all the boxes of a championship team but they lack playoff experience. They have the best home record in the league at 34-7 but they don’t have the road record (20-21) to go through golden state. Which comes from the lack of experience. Once they can get that number up to 60% or better, they can make that deep run which will come the experience this year. What I learned this year is teams struggle in the half with scoring due to the altitude putting a little more on their shot. I didn’t really believe it until I had a couple what I thought were sure thing scoring props for elite shooters. They ended up with terrible first halfs then came out with huge second halfs. You don’t really think about it until someone tells you because it influences other sports.
Spurs
Odds to win the series: +195
Odds to win the Western Conference: +3500
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +7000
Spurs might have a quick exit this year and I won’t be betting on them to win this series. Nuggets should control the first 2 games then Spurs might steal a game but it’s Nuggets in 5 for sure. The Spurs have actually been one of the best home teams in the league like most Pop teams, but they can’t win much on the road (16-25) which is second worst in the playoffs. The Spurs have tough matchups with Millsap on Aldridge and Harris/Craig picking up DeRozan. Nuggets are one of the best rebounding team in the league so they should control pace and rebounding especially at home and have their way with them.
Blazers vs Thunder
I think the Thunder take this series.
Blazers
Odds to win the series: +120
Odds to win the Western Conference: +2500
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +4500
This might be one of the first times I’ve seen the higher seed as underdogs in the first round of the playoffs, but for good reason. Nurkic had a gruesome leg injury and CJ limped into the playoffs. Kanter has been able to step into Nurk’s role nicely but still isn’t at the same level Nurk was. This could be a fun playoffs series with Kantor returning to OKC as a key player with their history.
Portland finished the season with a 7-2 record after the Nurkic injury, but with 3 games coming against playoff teams they went 1-2. So, it’s really tough to gauge especially with that one win coming against a resting Nuggets team. If the blazers make it past the warriors it will be a great data collecting spot with Kanter over Nurk against a quality team.
Thunder
Odds to win the series: -140
Odds to win the Western Conference: +2200
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +4500
Thunder are favorite to win this series as a lower seed but for good cause. They had what looked like a possible MVP in Paul George when they were making their run until they hit a bad spot dropping 13 out of 19, but finished off with a 6 game winning streak to get the 6 seed. If George and Westbrook can play at the top of their game they could take the West, next round they will get the winners of the Nuggets/Spurs which will end up being a great matchup for them. With Adams pounding Jokic inside disrupting their hole flow of the offense. The Nuggets actually took all 4 games sweeping them but that puts even more of a chip on their shoulder to win this series. At their peak they are one of the most dangerous teams in the west ay their valley they will struggle to get out of the first round.
Rockets vs Jazz
This might end up being my favorite series to watch. Both teams I think could make a little run in the playoffs. I wish the Warriors weren’t so good because the West could be wide open this year. Which is one of the reasons I liked betting on the field for nice odds because a tough road the warriors will have.
Rockets
Odds to win the series: -320
Odds to win the Western Conference: +600
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +1200
These guys are built for a deep run in the playoffs with the potential MVP leading the charge. They have some huge kinks in his armor. They are live and die by the 3 and have an X factor off the bench with Gerald Green. If he’s hitting his 3s they are winning the West and beating the Warriors for sure. It’s the playoffs and defensive gets tight and you get get away with as much so Harden might have a hard time with this team. This is a lot different team with and without Chris Paul. Their net rating with Chris Paul is 6.2 which is third best in the league behind the Bucks and the Warriors. Without Chris Paul they have a net rating of 1.7 down to 12th best. Net rating is one of the main sources to tell how good a team has been this season. It sucks that these 2 teams are going against each other because I think the winner could easily end up in the western conference finals.
Jazz
Odds to win the series: +260 (I really love this bet amazing payout)
Odds to win the Western Conference: +2800 ( call me crazy but it could happen)
Odds to win the NBA Championship: +5000
Jazz are my wildcard to take the West. Seems crazy from a team that didn’t have any allstar, but they had 2 all star snubs in Gobert and Mitchell. Then they have who should be an all defensive player and who I think is one of the most underrated players in the league Joe Ingles. These teams split the season series 2-2 and I saw a glaring trend in both the Jazz wins. They held Harden to 15 and 29 points both 2 of his worst performances of the year. In the 2 Jazz losses Harden went off for 43 and 47. So if the Jazz are able to control Harden then they can take the series. Another trend is if the Jazz control the pace and slow this game down they take this series easily. Harden get’s his points by volume not efficiency. We saw Pat Bev trying to teach Crowder how to guard Harden. Jingles will be the Xfactor in this game to try to slow down Harden. Without fouling of course haha. Depending on the healthy of everyone this team has a deep run in them.
