Joey’s Sim Sports Strategies Saturday 03/21/2020

What is up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time if you are new and finally getting into Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! As everyone knows we are on day 9 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as me being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up.

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see who the highest scorer at each position:

                PG: Ben Simmons 84.4 (9.17x)

                SG: James Harden 82.6 (7.35x)

                SF: Lebron James 88.4 (8.03x)

                PF: Anthony Davis 81.4 (7.46x)

                C: Andre Drummond 81.6 (8.16x)

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

                PG: Shaquille Harrison 14.5x and Shake Milton 14.2x

                SG: Furkan Korkmaz 13.7x and Gary Payton II 13.3x

                SF: Eric Gordon 17.1x and Kevin Porter 13.4x

                PF: Skal Labissiere 16.4x and Isaiah Hartenstein 16.3x

                C: Aaron Baynes 15.4x and Boban Marjanovic 15.9x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play and which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Ricky Rubio (68.1 fantasy points)

SG:  Khris Middleton (70 fantasy points), Marcus Smart (66 fantasy points),

SF:  Lebron James (88.4 fantasy points), Eric Gordon (68.7 fantasy points)

PF: Kristaps Porzingis (75.6 fantasy points), Skal Labissiere (58.9 fantasy points)

C: Aaron Baynes (64.7 fantasy points)

 

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 631.8 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 30.60 (Jordan Poole), 1Q: 42.67, Median: 50.45, Mean: 51.35, 3Q: 57.02, Max: 84.4

1. Ben Simmons: 84.4
2. Kyrie Irving: 73.1
3. Trae Young: 72.6
4. Luka Donic: 70.9
5. Russell Westbrook: 69.2

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.380 (George Hill) 8.675, 1Q: , Median: 10.635, Mean: 10.447, 3Q: 11.418, Max: 14.95(Trae Young)

• There is only one Point Guard under $6000 with a SD of less 10. This is Colin Sexton with a SD of 8.21. The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD.
• Trae Young has the worst SD of all point guards tonight with 14.95. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
• There are 2 guys over 12 SD. This will clasify them in the GPP category tonight. IF you want to take a risk on a couple cheap guys you can look at Shake Milton (13.3)and Shaq Harrison (12.56).

 

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 30% (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 43%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.48%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Malcolm Brogdan)

6x%: Min: 12% (Russell Westbrook), 1Q: 25.75%, Median: 30.5%, Mean: 29.07%, 3Q: 34.25%, Max: 39% (Coby White)

• Russell Westbrook has the worst 6x% with only 12%. If they continue to keep him at this salary I can’t play him in a tournament setting until they lower his price which I don’t think they ever will. While also having the 5th worst 5x% with 39% there is no real reason to play him ever. In the long term he is not worth it at this price tag.
• There are 3 players with a 5x% of 55%. (Malcolm Brogdan, Ish Smith and Coby White). These 3 are then the top value point guards on the slate. Coby White also has the highest 6x% 7x% 8x% 9x% and 10x% of the 3 guys. He will be the center piece of a majority of my lineups tonight, and be in at least 3 of my lineups.

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.8, 1Q: 42.58, Median: 47.85, Mean: 50.93, 3Q: 59.77, Max: 82.60

1. James Harden (82.6)
2. Zach Lavine (73.7)
3. Khris Middleton (70)
4. Bradley Beal (69.2)
5. Devin Booker (68.1)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.96 (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 8.818, Median: 9.83, Mean: 9.951, 3Q: 10.967, Max: 13.930 (James Harden)

• The highest SD for a Shooting Guard is James Harden with 13.930. He has an average of 56 so he has a 65% chance to score within 42.07 and 69.93 (Nice).
• The lowest SD for a Shooting Guard is Pat Connaughton with 6.96. He has an average of 14.19 so he has a 65% chance to score within 7.23 and 21.12.
• Shooting Guard is a little more consistent than the Point Guard position There are 3 players over $5000 to have an SD under 10 (Josh Richardson, Evan Fournier and Khris Middleton).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 32% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 44.5%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.42%, 3Q: 52.25%, Max: 56% (Terrence Ross)

6x%: Min: 14% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 25.75%, Median: 30%, Mean: 29.11%, 3Q: 34%, Max: 36% (JJ Reddick)

• Bradley Beal is the least likely SG to reach 6x tonight while being the 5th least likely to 5x% with 40%. Just like Russel Westbrook he just doesn’t have enough odds to reach 5x or even 6x to be a viable play on a 10 game slate.
• These 6 players all are extremely similar plays based on all metrics. It all depends on salary left but since it’s all random just pick who you want based on salary left. Terrence Ross is the safest of the 6 while Dillion Brooks provides the highest upside but at the expense of the highest SD.
  

  Name	Salary/1000	Salary	AVG	Floor	Ceiling Value	Ceiling	StdDev	5x %	6x %
  Terrence Ross	4.5	4500	23.74	6.2	11	49.5	7.9	0.56	0.34
  Garrett Temple	4	4000	21.03	6.7	10.425	41.7	8.35	0.55	0.36
  Dillon Brooks	4.7	4700	24.7	5.5	11.23404	52.8	9.87	0.55	0.36
  Donte DiVincenzo	4.3	4300	22.49	-1	9.744186	41.9	8.5	0.55	0.35
  Josh Hart	4.5	4500	23.49	5.6	9.244444	41.6	8.99	0.54	0.35
  JJ Redick	4.1	4100	21.37	3	9.707317	39.8	9.29	0.54	0.36

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.90, 1Q: 38.80, Median: 45.20, Mean: 47.83, 3Q: 53.98, Max: 88.40

1. Lebron James (88.4)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (81.8)
3. Eric Gordon (68.7)
4. Brandon Ingram (66.6)
5. Andrew Wiggins (65.5)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.25 (Doug McDermott) , 1Q: 8.342, Median: 9.43, Mean: 9.526, 3Q: 10.363, Max: 13.150 (Jonathan Issac)

• The highest SD for a Shooting Guard is Jonathan Issac with 13.15. He has an average of 32.92 so he has a 65% chance to score within 19.77 and 46.07
• Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin are two players that have higher than 11 SD.
• Lebron James, Jaylen Brown and Miles Bridges are the 3 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30%, 1Q: 42%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.05%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 57%

6x%: Min: 7%, 1Q: 25%, Median: 31%, Mean: 29.38%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 40%

• These guys are the top 9 guys to hit value today sub $5000.

• Name	Salary/1000	Salary	AVG	Floor	Ceiling Value	Ceiling	StdDev	5x %	6x %
  Joe Harris	4.4	4400	23.31	10.3	10.18182	44.8	7.94	0.57	0.35
  Taurean Prince	4.5	4500	23.8	8.2	10.64444	47.9	8.99	0.56	0.36
  Harrison Barnes	4.7	4700	24.62	6.2	8.638298	40.6	8.95	0.55	0.34
  Dorian Finney-Smith	4	4000	21.01	2	11.35	45.4	8.16	0.55	0.36
  Tim Hardaway	4.5	4500	23.69	2	10.73333	48.3	10.46	0.55	0.38
  Troy Brown	4.3	4300	22.59	7.2	12.39535	53.3	9.73	0.54	0.37
  Glenn Robinson	4.2	4200	21.97	3.4	10.21429	42.9	9.32	0.54	0.36
  Eric Gordon	4	4000	21.06	7.4	17.175	68.7	11.12	0.54	0.40
  Danuel House	4.1	4100	21.45	4.4	11.5122	47.2	10.06	0.54	0.38

• If you are looking for a high variance play with the most upside I would suggest Eric Gordon. He is also the cheapest so the easiest to fit.
• The safest play on the board is Joe Harris at that price. Lowest SD and most likely to hit 5x.

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32, 1Q: 42.58, Median: 50.75, Mean: 80.83, 3Q: 58.55, Max: 81.40

1. Anthony Davis (81.4)
2. Kristaps Porzingis (75.6)
3. John Collins (67.2)
4. Jayson Tatum (66.4)
5. Jarrett Allen (63.7)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.94 (Zion Williamson), 1Q: 9.133, Median: 9.550, Mean: 10.098, 3Q: 10.898, Max: 14.99 (Isaiah Hartenstein)

• I will probably play Zion Williamson on every slate. It doesn’t look like they are going to change anyone’s salary. Zion has the lowest SD on for PFs on the slate. He averages 33.5 points so he has a 65% chance of hitting between 26.56 and  40.44. With a 5x% of 53% he is very close to a lock for PF every time.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is a player who is the definition of go big or go home. He almost has the highest PF ceiling on the slate with 57 and is min priced. With the highest SD he will either completely screw you over or go for way above value no in between.
• Power Forward so far is the msot consistent position on the slate so it isn’t the best spot to try to get leverage. Al Horford, Zion Williamson, Julius Randle, Domatas Sanbonis, and Robert Covington are all above $5000 with a SD under 10.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30%, 1Q: 42%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 57%

6x%: Min: 11%, 1Q: 23.5%, Median: 29.5%, Mean: 27.86%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 57%

• These guys are the top 6 guys to hit value today sub $5000.

• Name	Salary/1000	Salary	AVG	Floor	Ceiling Value	Ceiling	StdDev	5x %	6x %
  Daniel Theis	4.6	4600	24.47	5.6	9.826087	45.2	8.71	0.57	0.36
  Brandon Clarke	4.7	4700	24.63	0.2	9.510638	44.7	9.25	0.55	0.35
  Frank Kaminsky	4.1	4100	21.38	6.9	9.146341	37.5	9.79	0.54	0.37
  Thaddeus Young	4.4	4400	22.74	5.7	11.06818	48.7	9.52	0.53	0.35
  Dario Saric	4.1	4100	21.35	0.7	11.78049	48.3	11.61	0.53	0.39
  Maxi Kleber	4.1	4100	21.08	3.8	10.17073	41.7	8.27	0.53	0.34

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70, 1Q: 42.12, Median: 51.10, Mean: 51.11, 3Q: 57.12, Max: 81.60

1. Andre Drummond (81.6)
2. Joel Embiid (78.3)
3. Tristan Thompson (66.3)
4. Aaron Baynes (64.7)
5. Nikola Vucevic (62.9)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.

Min: 8.1 (Mo Bamba), 1Q: 9.527, Median: 10.115, Mean: 10.564, 3Q: 11.250, Max: 14.180 (Joel Embiid)

• There are 4 centers with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Mitchell Robinson, Nikola Vucevic, Wendell Carter Jr, and DeAndre Jordon. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings. I want to go with a safe guy but still have the upside.
• Joel Embiid has the highest SD for a center with 14.180 but he is still considered a safe plat for me with a 5x% of 43% and a 6x% of 20%. Both numbers are higher than Andre Drummond. It’s a close call between the two.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 32%, 1Q: 44.25%, Median: 50.50%, Mean: 47.87%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 56%

6x%: Min: 11%, 1Q: 28%, Median: 32.50%, Mean: 30.63%, 3Q: 36%, Max: 40%

• Center is an extremely deep position. Here is the data behind the top guys under $5000

• Name	Salary/1000	Salary	AVG	Floor	Ceiling Value	Ceiling	StdDev	5x %	6x %
  Cody Zeller	4.5	4500	23.92	5.2	12.28889	55.3	9.61	0.56	0.37
  Willie Cauley-Stein	4.1	4100	21.54	3.1	9.268293	38	8.94	0.55	0.37
  Ian Mahinmi	4	4000	21	5.5	11.225	44.9	9.9	0.54	0.38
  P.J. Tucker	4.1	4100	21.45	1.2	10.04878	41.2	9.46	0.54	0.37
  Dwight Powell	4.2	4200	21.72	6.3	10.71429	45	9.37	0.53	0.36
  Dwight Howard	4.1	4100	21.22	2.9	10	41	9.8	0.53	0.36
  Enes Kanter	4.1	4100	21.32	1.4	12.39024	50.8	11.28	0.53	0.39
  Aron Baynes	4.2	4200	21.78	5.9	15.40476	64.7	13.18	0.52	0.40
  DeAndre Jordan	5	5000	25.57	4.8	10.28	51.4	9.79	0.52	0.33
  Thomas Bryant	5	5000	25.57	3.6	10.04	50.2	11.12	0.52	0.35
  Gorgui Dieng	4	4000	20.6	1.4	14.15	56.6	12.3	0.52	0.39