Welcome back Grinders to another addition of my PrizePicks Palooza. We have a good one in the East hope it goes to 7 games so we can get all the betting we can get before the season is over.
ARTICLE RECAP:
Kawhi Leonard UNDER fantasy prop: It was set at 53 and he ended with 44.9
Kyle Lowry UNDER fantasy prop: It was set at 32.8 and he ended with 39 fantasy points after a ceiling game, but I’m fine with going right back to the under.
Trap: Brook Lopez fantasy prop: He was set at 25.4 and he ended with 19.9.
Plays of the Day
Kawhi Leonard UNDER 52.0 fantasy prop: I’m going right back to this play. Kawhi under fantasy points has been one of my favorite props to pound the under this series. Even though he has been one of the best and most efficient scorers in the playoffs his fantasy output hasn’t been as magical. He has consistently been priced over 51 fantasy points right up to lock and every time except the double OT thriller he has gone under. The ceiling seems to be capped right around 50 but the floor is right around 42. I’ll say this he has been a very consistent player. He is dealing with a Quad injury which seemed to limit him a lot last game. It looks like he’s feeling a lot better today so as long as he doesn’t go off for 35+ real points which is 7 over his projection the under should be fine. Last game he had a ceiling Blocks and Steals game with 6 and still only got 44.9 fantasy points.
Kyle Lowry UNDER 33.0 fantasy points: This is pretty funny, I have the same exact plays as last article. This is because they are still great plays. We got unlucky last game when Lowry saw a ceiling performance but I doubt that continues tonight. He has actually been dealing with a thumb injury through this series. Nurse says “he’s in a lot of pain”. This doesn’t bode well for his gritty play style. He may have been able to fight through the pain last game to a ceiling performance but I doubt we see that again and will lead to similar game 2 and 3 numbers. If he isn’t scoring 20+ this mark will be hard to reach.
Trap of the Day
Serge Ibaka OVER 22.0 fantasy points: I think this is a huge trap recency bias play. He is coming off his best fantasy performance since the Philly series. Ibaka always has these random ceiling games where he just goes off and it’s never back to back. I doubt we see another huge game out of him here. That isn’t to say I want to hit the under button on him unless I was forced to play him. 22 points is close to where he normally is and that 3 point difference could be reached just by a simple defensive stat like block or steal. This is a play I’m staying away from today.
