What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Value Plays article. I will be focusing solely on DraftKings. Always remember that the value on DraftKings is not always the value on FanDuel, or any other site you are playing on. If you haven’t signed up for core plays yet, make sure to do so by clicking here. We have daily, weekly, monthly, and season-long packages. You can try us out for as little as $5!
Value is mainly determined by two things: injury news or lazy pricing. A player could be underpriced because salaries came before injury news. A site can also be lazy and not raise the price of a player who has been playing way above their price, and getting the minutes to prove it’s sustainable.
If you are familiar with NBA DFS you know the best value could open up minutes before the slate locks. So, make sure to check back later in the day, the best value plays for the slate may change depending on if we get injury news we were not expecting or that we were waiting for all day. I will be providing an update at the bottom of the article if there is a need for it. There will be times we receive news less than an hour before lock, that is where it is vital to join our discord for free. Whether it is on the free side or the premium side there will always be people discussing injury news and how it has impacted the slate.
Also, make sure to check out our live odds on Bet Karma to stay up to date on how Vegas is projecting these games.
All plays are under $5000
Larry Nance Jr $4500
Nance has taken a back seat in this offense since his injury but at this price, he is hard to pass up. He played 38 minutes last game and with Kevin Love missing another game, he should see high 30s minutes again tonight in a great matchup. Nance is averaging 0.81 DK points per minute this season and a 13% usage rate. He needs 30 minutes on average to reach value at 0.81 DK points per minute which is extremely attainable tonight.
He gets a pretty easy matchup against the Celtics who will be without Kemba Walker tonight. Making it less likely a blowout will happen. The Celtics are allowing the 10th most DK points per game to PFs this season. They also play at a much higher pace with Kemba out vs him in. PGs usually control a lot of pace so losing a point guard can change your philosophy. The Celtics allow 114 points per 100 possession this season too.
The Projections Portal has him projected at 25.90 DK Points
Tomas Satoransky $3800
Sato has done amazingly over the last couple of games. He is coming off back-to-back 30 DK point games with both games coming at 25+ minutes. The value has mainly come from an increase in minutes. He is only averaging 21.1 minutes per game but over the last two games, he is averaging 28.5 minutes per game. Sato also plays for a team that plays at the 6th highest pace in the league but his salary does not account for that.
Tonight he gets a matchup against the Spurs who play at the 15th highest pace in the league. They also allow 110 points per 100 possessions. On top of that, the Spurs allow the 5th most points to Point guards this season.
The Projections Portal has him projected at 23.20 DK Points
