What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Value Plays article. In this article, I will be focusing solely on DraftKings. Always remember that the value on DraftKings is not always the value on FanDuel, or any other site you are playing on. If you haven’t signed up for core plays yet, make sure to do so by clicking here. We have daily, weekly, monthly, and season-long packages. You can try us out for as little as $5!
Value is mainly determined by two things: injury news or lazy pricing. A player could be underpriced because salaries came before injury news. A site can also be lazy and not raise the price of a player who has been playing way above their price, and getting the minutes to prove it’s sustainable.
If you are familiar with NBA DFS you know the best value could open up minutes before the slate locks. So, make sure to check back later in the day, the best value plays for the slate may change depending on if we get injury news we were not expecting or that we were waiting for all day. I will be providing an update at the bottom of the article if there is a need for it. There will be times we receive news less than an hour before lock, that is where it is vital to join our discord for free. Whether it is on the free side or the premium side there will always be people discussing injury news and how it has impacted the slate.
Also, make sure to check out our brand new live odds on BetKarma to stay up to date on how Vegas are projecting these games.
All plays are under $5000!
Denzel Valentine $4,800:
Valentine is finally showing some promise in the league. The 27-year-old former first-round pick has struggled throughout his career to get any stable role in an offense. He was able to take full advantage of the start last game. In his first start of the season, Valentine played 36 minutes shot 17 times, and put up 3 rebounds and 4 assists. He was able to not just score but added peripherals. This helps to show consistency as a great value play. I hate just relying on only scoring. This lowers the floor of the player. With peripherals, he is able to still hit value on a bad shooting night.
The Bulls get an easy matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. The Wizards have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past couple of seasons and this year has been no different. The Wizards rank second-worst in the league in defensive rating, allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions. They also play at the highest pace in the league, 104.20 possessions per game. The Bulls also play at the third-highest pace in the league. So, we should see plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities for everyone in the game.
The projections portal is showing Denzel Valentine as the best value play under $5000 on the slate and projected for 28.50 fantasy points.
Jae’Sean Tate $4,800:
Tate has been a diamond in the rough for the Rockets this season. After going undrafted in 2018, to playing overseas for two years, the Ohio State product is finally getting a chance to shine since the departure of James Harden. Tate has taken a backseat recently when the team is fully healthy, but that is far from the case tonight. The Rockets will be without; John Wall, Eric Gordon, and Christian Wood. These are three of their top-four players on the team for fantasy purposes. This opens up a ton of value. Boogie Cousins has been enjoying the absence of Christian Wood the past few games. Now, it is Tate’s turn to enjoy the absences of Gordon and Wall.
Tate has played seven games of over 30 minutes. In those games, he is averaging 12 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.14 APG, 2 B/S per game. This equates to 25.5 DK points per game. He has three games of over 30 fantasy points and four games under 25 fantasy points. He should be able to get 25+ DK points tonight, while playing more than 30 minutes, with the absence of all the stars for the Rockets.
The Rockets get a middle of the pack matchup against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Hornets have been pretty average on defense so far this season. They rank 16th in the league in defensive rating, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. While also ranking 17th in the league for pace of play, 100.17 possessions per game.
The projections portal is showing Jae’Sean Tate as the second-best value play under $5000 on the slate and projected for 26.10 fantasy points.
Value-added from Injury:
Rockets: John Wall and Eric Gordon are out. Only two guys playing for the Rockets tonight are priced above $5000. The last time Wall missed Gordon slid into the starting lineup. So I am curious who slides into the starting lineup now. Looks like David Nwaba should be starting for now. Huge bump for Jae’Sean Tate and Daniel House as well.
Wizards: Russell Westbrook is out. Basically, every Wizard gets a bump. Be on the lookout for who starts between Raul Neto and Ish Smith.
Lakers: Anthony Davis is out. Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, and Talon Horton-Tucker all get bumps.
Suns: Jae Crowder, Abdul Nader, and Cameron Payne are ruled out. We are just waiting on Chris Paul’s injury news, he is currently questionable. This should open up a ton of value on the Suns. With all the guards out for them, looks like we will get point Booker for $7400. Leading to most likely Cameron Johnson sliding into the starting lineup. With Frank Kaminsky staying in the starting lineup as we have seen recently.
Risky Milly Maker Punt
Davis Bertans. His shot has not been falling recently, but all it takes is one great shooting game for him to reach value. We don’t have a ton of data on Bertans without Russ this season. In the five games without him, Bertans has shot at least four 3s and in three games he has shot at least seven 3s. He hasn’t been himself since returning from Covid, but that is why we will get him at a discount tonight and hope for a great shooting night against a bad defense.
