What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Value Plays article. I will be focusing solely on DraftKings. Always remember that the value on DraftKings is not always the value on FanDuel, or any other site you are playing on. If you haven’t signed up for core plays yet, make sure to do so by clicking here. We have daily, weekly, monthly, and season-long packages. You can try us out for as little as $5!
Value is mainly determined by two things: injury news or lazy pricing. A player could be underpriced because salaries came before injury news. A site can also be lazy and not raise the price of a player who has been playing way above their price and getting the minutes to prove it’s sustainable.
If you are familiar with NBA DFS you know the best value could open up minutes before the slate locks. So, make sure to check back later in the day, the best value plays for the slate may change depending on if we get injury news we were not expecting or that we were waiting for all day. I will be providing an update at the bottom of the article if there is a need for it. There will be times we receive news less than an hour before lock, that is where it is vital to join our discord for free. Whether it is on the free side or the premium side there will always be people discussing injury news and how it has impacted the slate.
Since we have entered the territory of late-season NBA, injury news will be dictating the entire slate. Throughout the day we will get new news that will completely flip the slate upside down. Sometimes we will get the news early, sometimes it will become minutes before lock. I am going to try to get this article out as early as possible highlighting the questionable players on the slate to help you be better prepared for all the close-to-lock madness.
Also, make sure to check out our live odds on Bet Karma to stay up to date on how Vegas is projecting these games.
Injury Report:
Indiana Pacers:
Miles Turner (O), Domantas Sabonis (Q), Malcolm Brogdon (Q)
With the injuries of three out of the four major contributors in the Pacers’ offense, this leads to a new distribution of usage and minutes throughout the team. Caris Levert still has not been priced up enough with all these players out averaging 40.25 DK points per game over the last three games without Brogdan and Sabonis. If these two guys are out again load up on Levert. With Miles Turner already ruled out Goga Bitadze already has value but if Sabonis is out against Bitadze gets raised to a must-play at $3800. Doug McDermott continues to let DFS players down game after game, I doubt he sees the chalk he has the last few games, he just isn’t getting the minutes anymore. If he gets the minutes tonight he will be a great play but seems like he is slowly losing minutes. The main three bench guys I will be looking at are T.J McConnel, Aaron Holiday, and Jeremy Lamb.
Orlando Magic:
Otto Porter (O), Karim Mane (O), Khem Birch (Waived)
The Magic injuries have steadied themselves out now after all the big trades. Otto Porter Jr is still not playing for the Magic. Once Porter comes back we should see a mix-up in the rotation but for now, it should stay what we saw recently. With Khem Birch getting waived this has led to the Magic using Mo Bamba as they should have when they drafted him 6th overall in 2018. Bamba showed he should be getting a lot of work. After the Vucevic trade, we were expecting Carter Jr to see huge minutes and usage, but after the Washington game, Bamba single-handedly brought this team back from a huge deficit. Don’t be surprised if Bamba is starting in the next couple of games or getting more minutes.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Josh Okogie (Expected to play), Jaylen Nowell (Not expected to play), Malik Beasley (O)
Boston Celtics:
Evan Fournier (O)
Memphis Grizzlies:
Brandon Clarke (D), De’Anthony Melton (O), Justise Winslow (O), Jaren Jackson Jr (Eyeing up late April Return)
The Clarke news doesn’t mean a lot for DFS purposes. The Grizzlies usually go 10 deep on the bench. If Clarke is out again and you are looking for a low-owned Milly Maker play take a chance on John Konchar. He doesn’t have a ton of value but is he sees Clarke’s minutes while he is out. 21 and 17 minutes over the last two games where Clarke missed. He also put up around a DK point per minute and will get completely overlooked. So if you need value tonight you can take a chance on him.
NY Knicks:
Mitchell Robinson (O), John Henson (O)
Nothing new from New York. Mitchell and Henson continue to miss games. This allows Nerlans Noel and Taj Gibson to be playable.
Chicago Bulls:
Garrett Temple (O)
Atlanta Hawks:
Danilo Gallinari (Q), Clint Capela (Q), John Collins (O), Kris Dunn (O), De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish (O)
When all three of these guys missed the last game the Hawks were blown out by the Grizzlies. So we saw a chalk guy like Trae Young did not hit value based on not playing in the fourth quarter. Gallinari and Capela news is going to influence a lot of value on this slate. Hawks will be missing bigs if both are out. Nikola Vucevic should have no issues slashing through the Hawks’ interior defense like we saw Jonas Valencunas put up 19 points and 11 rebounds in only 26 minutes. Onyeka Okongwu drew the start for the Hawks putting up 33.8 DK points in 32.2 minutes of play. Only getting a price bump to $4000 in a good matchup against Chicago makes him a great value play tonight. You can also look at Nathan Knight who scored 17.5 DK points off the bench in 19 minutes. If Gallinari is out tonight you can look at Solomon Hill again tonight in the starting lineup for 5x value.
Philadelphia 76ers:
George Hill (O)
New Orleans Pelicans:
Lonzo Ball (Q), Brandin Ingram (Q), Kira Lewis (Q), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (O), Josh Hart (O)
The Pelicans continue to be short on ball handlers as you can tell everyone is out, which is why they had to sign Isaiah Thomas to a 10-day contract. Thomas was priced out of value from the beginning, but if Zo, Ingram, and Lewis are ruled out Thomas becomes playable. This would also boost Eric Bledsoe into chalky and great value at $6400. Depending on who gets ruled out we will see Zion’s usage rate skyrocket.
Charlotte Hornets:
Gordon Hayward (O), Malik Monk (O), LaMelo Ball (O)
Milwaukee Bucks:
Giannis Antetokoumnpo (O), Jrue Holiday (O), PJ Tucker (O)
The Bucks are missing two of the highest usage players on their team tonight. This will make Khris Middleton the chalk mid-tier pay-up spot tonight. Even though everyone has been screwed by him over the last couple of games you still have to play him in cash games. This also gives you Bobby Portis value as well. Portis saw 35 minutes last night as the PF for the Bucks and will continue to see this high minutes mark. At $6000 Donte Divincenzo will probably be priced out of mega chalk but will be running point guard for the team with Holiday out tonight. Pat Connaughton will also most likely draw the start for Holiday. This will also make Thanasis Antetokoumnpo the sixth man tonight.
SA Spurs:
Lonnie Walker (Q), Gorgui Dieng (Q), Trey Lyles (O), Keita Bates-Diop (O)
Denver Nuggets:
Jamal Murray (Q)
Murray has missed the last two games with a knee injury. Two different players drew the start for them during that stretch. Monte Morris started against Detroit and saw 23 minutes and 20 DK points, while Facundo Campazzo started against the Spurs and saw 28 minutes and 15.25 DK points. During both games Campazzo saw more or the same minutes than Morris and is $700 cheaper.
Washington Wizards:
Bradley Beal (P), Daniel Gafford (O)
Golden State Warriors:
Eric Paschall (O)
Houston Rockets:
John Wall (O), Danuel House (O), David Nwaba (O), Eric Gordon (O)
With John Wall out tonight, Kevin Porter Jr gets a huge usage bump. Over the last ten games, KPJ averages a 23.9% usage rate with Wall playing and a 28.1% usage rate without him. He also averages 17.9 DK points per game with Wall and 35.75 DK points without Wall. At $7000 against the Clippers he isn’t a must-play but is a great GPP play.
LA Clippers:
Reggie Jackson (Q), Serge Ibaka (O)
