What’s up grinders and welcome back to another addition of my Monkey Knife Fight plays article.

ARTICLE RECAP: PERFECT!!

Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 scoring prop: He ended up with 35 points.

James Harden OVER 33.5 scoring prop: He ended up with 35 points and I said to play it up to 34.5 points.

Game Theory

Philly @ Toronto

Game total: 220.5 with the Raptors as 6.5 point favorites. (Love the Raptors spread)

I think this game will be even more of a blowout then last game. The 76ers ended with a 25% offensive rebound % compared to 5% for the Raptors. With 14 second chance points compared to 2 for the Raptors. People doubted the importance on the Gasol trade but with all the fame Kawhi and Siakam have gotten during the playoffs for their offensive performances Gasol has gone from stopping Vuc to completely shutting down Embiid. He scored 3 points and 1/8 from the field in 17 minutes of play. With Gasol on the floor. If coach is smart he would play Gasol minute for minute with Embiid. Per +/-; the 76ers were +12 with Embiid on the court and Gasol off in 12 minutes, -10 with Embiid on and Gasol on the floor in 17 minutes. The 76ers are most successful when Embiid is at his best, if the Raptors are able to shut him down it’ll be done in 4.

 Portland @ Denver

Game total: 216.5 with the Nuggets as 4 point favorites.

With the lack of depth at the Center position could spell trouble for the Blazers. Jokic is playing at the top of his game right now and proving that he should have been in the MVP conversation. Everyone pegged this team for an upset waiting to happen. I loved this team to go far but the inexperience troubled me. Jamal Murray is growing up right in front of our eyes starting off scared of the stage to game 7 closer when Jokic couldn’t close. I think if Murray is able to play at his peak like he did in wins against the Spurs the Nuggets will win this series in either 5 or 7 games at home. Home court advantage goes farther than just the fans in Denver, the altitude has an influence on players shots. The Spurs shot 25/80 (31%) from deep and 18/65 (27%) outside of game 1. Compared to 21/59 (35%) at home. Which would be the difference between 10th in the league vs last (32.9%) in the league based on percentage. Blazers see a pace down spot here compared to the Thunder so I would expect lower stats for these guys.

Favorite Plays

Joel Embiid UNDER 22.5 scoring prop: We saw Gasol shut down Embiid the same way he shut down Vuc. I loved this play at 25.5 points last game and I will probably play it every game this series as long as it’s over 20. With Gasol on him he might only have 22.5 total points all series and that’s saying something for the best center in the league to be shut down like this. He scored 3 points and 1/8 from the field in 17 minutes of play when guarding Embiid and once Gasol went off the floor he dropped 9 straight points. Embiid has faced Gasol two other times this year: 14 points 4-16 and 15 points 4-13.

Paul Millsap UNDER 8.5 rebounds: This seems like an easy one to me. He hasn’t gone over this mark in 12 games. I loved him earlier in the playoffs when he was at 7.5 rebounds and I’ll play this again and again until he goes over. He just hasn’t been the sae rebounding presence since the playoffs started he has been more of a scorer. He just doesn’t have the rebounding % to reach this mark. Oh course the prop went  away but I love .5 for Aminu vs Millsap to substitute