Officially I will be switching off my DFS Showdown content and I will be focusing all my energy on getting my Monkey Knife Fight thoughts out to the public. This is a new article so I will be experimenting with some ideas to figure out the best way to inform the public on plays, while still giving the edge to us at Karma and joining our discord! Let me first start off by introducing myself, if you don’t already know me, I’m Joey your resident Prop Goat. I have basically fully transferred all my investment away from those huge DFS companies like Fanduel and Draftkings and I’m all in on Monkey Knife Fight. It was the best move I’ve made in my fantasy sports career and there really isn’t much turning back. I can’t get away from that GPP thrill so of course, I left money in DFS to ride out those GPP takedowns. Make sure you also check out me and Sam’s weekly Prop Party pod as well.
Make sure to check out Monkey Knife Fight projections built by Luke (NBA) (NFL) they are always great.
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NFL Plays
Since it’s Thursday I thought I would drop some bonus plays for Thursday Night Football. Originally I was mainly a showdown writer so this is more of my specialty. I have grown to love these showdown props way more than playing showdown slates. Obviously it’s fun to try to bink a GPP but if you are looking for a cash lineup, just stick to props they are way more profitable.
Sam Darnold UNDER 15.5 fantasy points: I love the under on Darnold tonight. Not only is the Raven defense one of the best defensives in the league, he might be seeing ghosts again tonight, but Darnold has been awful in his career in primetime games. He has played 3 primetime games in his career he has put up: 14.92 (DET), -0.56 (NE), and 5.84 (CLE) fantasy points. He just doesn’t show up and especially on a short week without DT on the field against the number 1 team in the NFL at applying pressure according to PFF grading.
Mark Ingram OVER 13.0 fantasy points: This number is just way too love factoring in matchup and game script with touchdown upside. Prizepicks has him right at 16.0 but you get a huge discount on MKF. The Ravens have been amazing this year and that has helped Ingram become one of the top fantasy backs in the league averaging over 15 fantasy points per game ranking him 10th in the league. He’s third in the league for rushes inside the 5 and second in touchdowns which raises his touchdown upside by a ton. The Ravens are 16.5 point favorites in this game so the game script will be in his favor and as long as Jackson doesn’t steal all the touchdowns then Ingram should easily go over this mark.
NBA Thoughts
This article is normally focused completely on NBA but while I was writing they kept changing plays I liked into tougher lines so I have made this a primarily NFL article with a small NBA section.
With Marcus Smart ruled out I love his over on fantasy points on prizepicks at 32, but that being said we probably won’t get his prop on MKF which sucks. They only do the top 6 projected players and the top 4 go into 2/2s.
Tristan Thompson UNDER 10.5 rebounds: TT has had a solid season this year. He ranks 10th in rebounds per game but where he really excels is offensive rebounding. He is averaging 10 rebounds a game with 4 offensive rebounds per game which would rank him third. With Thompson, you really need to look games where he can take advantage of the offensive boards to go over this total or he will go under. You have to gauge pace with rebounding percentages. Not only just rebounding percentages, but offensive vs defensive. Spurs rank 22nd in the league in offensive rebounding in the league, but rank 6th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage which means they take care of the glass and limit offensive rebounds while slowing the game down by preferring to get back on defense than crash the offensive boards. Without the bonus rebounds on the offensive end, TT will not be able to go over this mark. He has gone over this mark 50% of the time this season but has only gone over once over the past 4 games which is why it’s one too low from being extremely easy.
Well at the end of writing this TT fell to 8.5 rebounds. Something I have never seen while writing for MKF, so we have to adjust. Since he has fallen down to 8.5 rebounds I’ll just say this. He has gone over 8.5 rebounds in every game he has played more than 30 minutes but two games. So as long as he gets the minutes without blowout he will go over. Now after writing this and in talking about it in discord, he moved up to the unplayable spot of 9.5 rebounds. I GIVE UP AND THIS IS NOW A NFL ARTICLE!! The Spies were active today in discord it looks like. Sorry, they ruined the good prop. GET OUT OF MY HEAD!!!
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