What’s up Karma Nation. Welcome to another edition of my PrizePicks first look article. If you have not signed up for an account yet, make sure to click on the link and use promo code KARMA to get a nice deposit bonus. In this article, we will try to take advantage of early lines either the night before the slate or the early morning. These lines will move quickly so make sure to turn on DFSkarma Twitter notifications to make sure you don’t miss out on any of my articles.
These two props are both popping out early in our early projections and the Betkarma Prop Predictor. The Prop Predictor is one of the most valuable parts of the NBA package so SIGN UP TODAY! We also have free projections for props on DFSkarma you can look at as well for fantasy points. Make sure to check them out to get a huge advantage in the prop industry and take advantage of lines that are off.
Damian Lillard OVER 31.5 Points:
Lillard has been carrying this Blazers team during the absence of CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. He has shown why he is one of the top PGs in the league, even as he turns 30. Lillard is averaging 30.0 PPG this season, which ties his career-high that he set last season. Lillard boosts his average to 32.1 PPG with McCollum and Nurkic sidelined this season. In 15 games without them, he has only scored less than 30 points in 4 games. With two of those games being blowouts so he barely played in the fourth quarter during those games.
Lillard gets a fairly tough matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have improved drastically defensively compared to years past. The Suns are allowing, 107.8 points per game, and 11.0 3 pointers a game; both top 5 defensive numbers. Suns also only play 97.50 possessions a game and have a defensive rating of 109.0; both top 6 numbers as well. This sounds like a matchup you should avoid, but with a star like Dame the matchup isn’t as important as the discount we are getting on his number. We have seen him up at 34.5 points prop, they just lowered his number too much.
LaMelo Ball OVER 17.0 Points:
Normally, I try to avoid single stats props that don’t end in 0.5 but for points props, I don’t mind them as much as rebounds and assists because a movement of one is not as important for points compared to rebounds and assists. Ball has been able to take advantage of injuries early in his career, leading him into the starting lineup for the Hornets for the last nine games. As a starter, he is averaging 19.3 PPG on 16.6 FGAs and 6.9 (nice) 3 point attempts per game, and 34.1 MPG. This compared to his numbers off the bench, 12.2 PPG on 10.5 FGAs and 4.4 3 point attempts per game, and 25.0 MPG.
Ball also gets a tough matchup against the Jazz with some blowout risk at a 12.5 point. Obviously, if this game gets out of hand early and he sits a large majority of the 4th this prop will miss. So if the line moves closer to 20 points you can hedge with the under or take the Jazz -12.5 on your book if you are in a legal state you can bet in.
