What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! If you are a returning reader I thank you for the support I really appreciate the read! We have reached day 27 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. It makes me sad thinking that last night we should have been watching the Finals of the NCAA Tournament. It’s my favorite time of the year! At least we have the NBA 2k tournament tonight starting at 7:00pm EST on ESPN to look forward to. Prizepicks (PROMO: KARMA) offered some props for the games that I posted in our discord this morning. It’s currently FREE TO JOIN so there is no excuse not to hop in!
How it works
The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:
- Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
- Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
- Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
- Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
- Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
- Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!
Find official rules HERE
Where is the Edge?
At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.
Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:
PG: Ben Simmons 84.4
SG: Zach Lavine 73.70
SF: Brandon Ingram 66.60
PF: Bam Adebayo 70.30
C: Andre Drummond 81.6
Next let’s take a look at each top value play:
PG: Shaq Harrison 14.51x and Shake Milton 14.19x
SG: Furkan Kormaz 13.77x and Gary Payton II 13.77x
SF: Kevin Porter 13.45x and Jae Crowder 13.08x
PF: Lauri Markkanen 11.40x and Eric Jarrett Allen 11.18x
C: Jahlil Okafor 15.92x and Gorgui Dieng 14.15x
I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.
Best Possible Lineup
Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.
PG: Ben Simmons (84.40 fantasy points), Ish Smith (56.60 fantasy points)
SG: Zach Lavine (73.70 fantasy points), Alec Burks (62.40 fantasy points)
SF: Jae Crowder (64.10 fantasy points), Troy Brown (53.30 fantasy points)
PF: Bam Adebayo (70.30 fantasy points,) Jarrett Allen (63.70 fantasy points)
C: Andre Drummond (81.60 fantasy points)
If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 610.10 fantasy points!
Point Guards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 33.50 (Emmanuel Mudiay), 1Q: 43.30 Median: 51.10, Mean: 50.86, 3Q: 54.20, Max: 84.4
- Ben Simmons 84.40
- Kyrie Irving 73.10
- Spencer Dinwiddie 62.50
- Ja Morant 57.00
- Ish Smith 56.60
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 8.05 (Darius Garland), 1Q: 8.84, Median: 9.76, Mean: 10.19, 3Q: 11.33, Max: 14.420 (Kyrie Irving)
- There are 5 Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Kendrick Nunn (9.57), Chris Paul (9.11), Goran Dragic (8.84), Collin Sexton (8.21) and Markelle Fultz (8.15). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
- Tonight’s slate has a range of 2 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.30) and Shaq Harrison (12.56)5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.
5x%: Min: 34% (Shaq Harrison), 1Q: 48%, Median: 51%, Mean: 49.32%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)
6x%: Min: 18% (Ben Simmons), 1Q: 25%, Median: 31%, Mean: 30.08%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Coby White)
- The studs to pay up for:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Kyrie Irving | 9500 | 46.13 | 21.80 | 73.10 | 14.42 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.08 |
| Ben Simmons | 9100 | 42.95 | 9.20 | 84.40 | 12.92 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| Chris Paul | 7300 | 36.02 | 9.40 | 55.00 | 9.11 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 7100 | 35.00 | 12.70 | 62.50 | 10.62 | 0.48 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
- These are the best value 5x%:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Mike Conley | 4600.00 | 24.35 | 5.70 | 41.70 | 9.76 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| Ish Smith | 4500.00 | 23.87 | 3.20 | 56.60 | 10.10 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| Coby White | 4200.00 | 22.36 | 6.20 | 47.20 | 10.65 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| Kris Dunn | 4300.00 | 22.39 | 5.20 | 43.30 | 9.45 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| Markelle Fultz | 5100.00 | 26.20 | 10.70 | 51.20 | 8.15 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| Shabazz Napier | 4500.00 | 23.45 | 4.50 | 52.30 | 11.33 | 0.53 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Ja Morant | 6300.00 | 32.40 | 8.70 | 57.00 | 11.57 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 4800.00 | 24.78 | 5.70 | 50.10 | 10.05 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
- Ish Smith, Mike Conley and Coby White are the two best value options for PG tonight. They are getting you the highest 5x%. Mike Conley is the safest option of the 3 becuase the lower SD, but Coby White provides the highest upside with higher 6x% and 7x%. Ish Smith is the dark horse because he has the highest true ceiling of the 3.
Cheap Plays
I’m going to include this section to help you guys pick the bottom of the barrel plays. I’ll keep this section to $4000 or less. It’s tough deciding what to do with that last bit of salary but this will definitely help eliminate options and narrow down your search to a couple guys. Compare the cheap guys across positions to gain even more of an edge tonight. See which are the best positions to pay up for and which are the best to pay down for. I’m also going to keep this to a minimum of 30 5x% to reduce the clutter.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | 3500.00 | 13.99 | 33.50 | 8.46 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Shaquille Harrison | 3500.00 | 12.23 | 50.80 | 12.56 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| Shake Milton | 3600.00 | 16.50 | 51.10 | 13.30 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| Tyus Jones | 3700.00 | 18.08 | 40.70 | 8.54 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 3800.00 | 18.33 | 38.40 | 8.53 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| D.J. Augustin | 4000.00 | 20.41 | 47.10 | 9.26 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| De’Anthony Melton | 4000.00 | 20.35 | 40.70 | 9.56 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| Darius Garland | 4000.00 | 20.20 | 37.50 | 8.05 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.07 |
Shooting Guards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 36.10 (Cody Martin), 1Q: 43.70, Median: 48.85, Mean: 52.07, 3Q: 60.60, Max: 73.70
- Zach Lavine 73.2
- Bradley Beal 69.20
- Jrue Holiday 65.30
- Jimmy Butler 63.70
- Caris Levert 63.30
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 7.90 (Terrence Ross), 1Q: 9.215, Median: 9.805, Mean: 10.082, 3Q: 10.967, Max: 13.37 (Caris LeVert)
- There are 2 players over $5000 to have an SD under 10 Jimmy Butler (9.94), Donovan Mitchell (9.67) Dennis Schroder (9.61), and Evan Fournier (8.00)
- There are 2 players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Gary Payton (12.14), and Tyler Herro (10.14)
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.
5x%: Min: 33% (Cody Martin), 1Q: 45.5%, Median: 50.50%, Mean: 48.83%, 3Q: 54%, Max: 57% (Tyler Herro)
6x%: Min: 13% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 24.50%, Median: 28.50%, Mean: 28.67%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 42% (Tyler Herro)
- We have 6 guys to pay up for tonight.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Bradley Beal | 10000 | 46.31 | 20.90 | 69.20 | 12.01 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| Jimmy Butler | 8600 | 41.42 | 11.00 | 63.70 | 9.94 | 0.44 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| Zach LaVine | 8000 | 40.00 | 12.60 | 73.70 | 11.87 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| Jrue Holiday | 7800 | 39.55 | 21.60 | 65.30 | 11.02 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 7300 | 36.10 | 15.20 | 59.20 | 9.67 | 0.48 | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 7000 | 34.52 | 10.20 | 60.00 | 10.12 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.08 |
- Tyler Herro is the best value play on the board for SG today.
- If you were looking to spend up at SG, I will probably be avoiding Beal not worth the risk with Zach Lavine having a higher ceiling and a way better 5x+%
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Tyler Herro | 3900 | 21.38 | 2.50 | 39.70 | 10.14 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| Josh Richardson | 4800 | 25.53 | 5.40 | 42.80 | 9.74 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| Garrett Temple | 4000 | 21.03 | 6.70 | 41.70 | 8.35 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| Dillon Brooks | 4700 | 24.70 | 5.50 | 52.80 | 9.87 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| Josh Hart | 4500 | 23.49 | 5.60 | 41.60 | 8.99 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| Terrence Ross | 4600 | 23.74 | 6.20 | 49.50 | 7.90 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| JJ Redick | 4100 | 21.37 | 3.00 | 39.80 | 9.29 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| Duncan Robinson | 4000 | 20.68 | 1.20 | 46.60 | 8.82 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 4400 | 22.70 | 2.70 | 44.00 | 9.36 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.19 |
Cheap Plays
I’m going to include this section to help you guys pick the bottom of the barrel plays. I’ll keep this section to $4000 or less. It’s tough deciding what to do with that last bit of salary but this will definitely help eliminate options and narrow down your search to a couple guys. Compare the cheap guys across positions to gain even more of an edge tonight. See which are the best positions to pay up for and which are the best to pay down for. I’m also going to keep this to a minimum of 30 5x% to reduce the clutter.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Furkan Korkmaz | 3500 | 15.73 | 48.20 | 9.61 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Gary Payton II | 3500 | 13.14 | 46.70 | 12.14 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Cody Martin | 3600 | 13.96 | 36.10 | 8.91 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Malik Monk | 3700 | 17.63 | 47.50 | 10.95 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Tyler Herro | 3900 | 21.38 | 39.70 | 10.14 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| Garrett Temple | 4000 | 21.03 | 41.70 | 8.35 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| Duncan Robinson | 4000 | 20.68 | 46.60 | 8.82 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
Small Forward
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 27.90 (Nicolas Batum), 1Q: 38.17, Median: 4440, Mean: 45.15, 3Q: 49.00, Max: 66.60
- Brandon Ingram 66.60
- Jae Crowder 64.10
- Jonathan Isaac 58.50
- Tobias Harris 57.90
- Troy Brown 53.30
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 6.990 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.342, Median: 9.320, Mean: 9.326, 3Q: 9.902, Max: 13.150 (Jonathan Issac)
- Caleb Martin (12.67) and Kenrich Williams (10.18) are 2 players that have a higher than 10 SD and is under $4000.
- Miles Bridges (9.81), Bojan Bogdanovic (9.11) and Danilo Gallinari (6.99) are the 3 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to pay up for.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 30% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 42%, Median: 49.50%, Mean: 47.46%, 3Q: 53.25%, Max: 57% (Joe Harris)
6x%: Min: 18% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 24%, Median: 29%, Mean: 29.17%, 3Q: 34.25%, Max: 39% (Troy Brown)
- These guys are the top 5 guys to pay up for today
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Brandon Ingram | 7900 | 38.81 | 15.30 | 66.60 | 10.33 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| Tobias Harris | 6700 | 34.61 | 11.40 | 57.90 | 10.22 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| Jonathan Isaac | 6400 | 32.92 | 6.20 | 58.50 | 13.15 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 5900 | 29.48 | 15.30 | 45.20 | 6.99 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
- Joe Harris and Troy Brown are my favorite two pay down guys.
- Tobias Harris and Jonathan Isaac provide value pay up spots.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Joe Harris | 4400 | 23.31 | 10.30 | 44.80 | 7.94 | 0.57 | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| Troy Brown | 4200 | 22.59 | 7.20 | 53.30 | 9.73 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| Taurean Prince | 4500 | 23.80 | 8.20 | 47.90 | 8.99 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| Tobias Harris | 6700 | 34.61 | 11.40 | 57.90 | 10.22 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| Glenn Robinson | 4200 | 21.97 | 3.40 | 42.90 | 9.32 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| Joe Ingles | 4500 | 23.46 | 7.20 | 41.90 | 9.47 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Cedi Osman | 4000 | 20.70 | 1.20 | 39.00 | 8.26 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| Jonathan Isaac | 6400 | 32.92 | 6.20 | 58.50 | 13.15 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Jae Crowder | 4900 | 25.07 | 8.10 | 64.10 | 10.70 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
Cheap Plays
I’m going to include this section to help you guys pick the bottom of the barrel plays. I’ll keep this section to $4000 or less. It’s tough deciding what to do with that last bit of salary but this will definitely help eliminate options and narrow down your search to a couple guys. Compare the cheap guys across positions to gain even more of an edge tonight. See which are the best positions to pay up for and which are the best to pay down for. I’m also going to keep this to a minimum of 30 5x% to reduce the clutter.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Kenrich Williams | 3500 | 15.49 | 38.20 | 10.18 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| Nicolas Batum | 3500 | 15.95 | 27.90 | 7.40 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| E’Twaun Moore | 3500 | 15.10 | 37.60 | 8.37 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 3500 | 13.86 | 36.10 | 8.84 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Denzel Valentine | 3500 | 13.04 | 38.10 | 8.69 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Kyle Anderson | 3600 | 17.24 | 32.70 | 7.82 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| Chandler Hutchison | 3600 | 16.49 | 32.60 | 7.30 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Porter | 3800 | 18.86 | 51.10 | 9.32 | 0.49 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| Caleb Martin | 3800 | 12.95 | 44.00 | 12.67 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| Cedi Osman | 4000 | 20.70 | 39.00 | 8.26 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| Derrick Jones | 4000 | 20.35 | 48.30 | 9.67 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| Josh Jackson | 4000 | 20.01 | 40.60 | 9.54 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
Power Forwards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 32.10 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 37.40, Median: 48.70, Mean: 48.45, 3Q: 54.08, Max: 70.30
- Bam Adebayo 70.30
- Jarrett Allen 63.70
- Lauri Markkanen 60.40
- Kevin Love 59.60
- Aaron Gordon 57.00
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 6.770 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 9.120, Median: 9.430, Mean: 9.565, 3Q: 10.562, Max: 11.910 (Jarrett Allen)
- There are no players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10.
- Rui Hachimura (9.35), Al Horford (9.14), Lauri Markkanen (8.87), Davis Bertans (8.09) and Zion Williamson (6.94) are all above $5000 with a SD under 10.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 30% (Khem Birch), 1Q: 48.50%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.05%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 55% (Brandon Clarke)
6x%: Min: 15% (Zion Williamson), 1Q: 26.50%, Median: 28.5%, Mean: 28.05%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 35% (Thad Young)
- These are the “Studs” for the PF.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Bam Adebayo | 8200 | 40.71 | 17.60 | 70.30 | 11.01 | 0.49 | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| Kevin Love | 6800 | 34.40 | 8.70 | 59.60 | 11.15 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| Zion Williamson | 6800 | 33.49 | 26.30 | 53.10 | 6.94 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
- Top Value Plays:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Brandon Clarke | 4700 | 24.63 | 0.20 | 44.70 | 9.25 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| Davis Bertans | 5100 | 26.24 | 10.30 | 47.30 | 8.09 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| Thaddeus Young | 4400 | 22.74 | 5.70 | 48.70 | 9.52 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| P.J. Washington | 4900 | 25.18 | 6.40 | 48.70 | 9.13 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| Al Horford | 6000 | 30.64 | 11.30 | 51.00 | 9.14 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.11 |
| Nerlens Noel | 4200 | 21.61 | 0.20 | 37.80 | 9.25 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Kevin Love | 6800 | 34.40 | 8.70 | 59.60 | 11.15 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| Aaron Gordon | 6300 | 31.87 | 4.40 | 57.00 | 10.93 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.13 |
Cheap Plays
I’m going to include this section to help you guys pick the bottom of the barrel plays. I’ll keep this section to $4000 or less. It’s tough deciding what to do with that last bit of salary but this will definitely help eliminate options and narrow down your search to a couple guys. Compare the cheap guys across positions to gain even more of an edge tonight. See which are the best positions to pay up for and which are the best to pay down for. I’m also going to keep this to a minimum of 30 5x% to reduce the clutter.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 3500 | 15.27 | 35.10 | 9.51 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Nicolo Melli | 3500 | 14.34 | 36.20 | 9.74 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| Luke Kornet | 3500 | 12.80 | 35.70 | 9.88 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| Khem Birch | 3500 | 12.74 | 35.80 | 9.09 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Royce O’Neale | 3800 | 18.87 | 32.10 | 6.77 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
Centers
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 40.05, Median: 52.70, Mean: 52.35, 3Q: 60.20, Max: 81.60
- Andre Drummond 81.6
- Joel Embiid 78.3
- Tristan Thompson 66.30
- Nikola Vucevic 62.9
- Jonas Valanciunas 61.40
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 8.10 (Mo Bamba), 1Q: 9.70, Median: 10.33, Mean: 10.60, 3Q: 11.43, Max: 14.18 (Joel Embiid)
- Nikola Vucevic (9.80) and Wendell Cater Jr (9.01) and are the only two centers with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
- Jahlil Okafor (12.69), Kelly Olynyk (10.37) and Bismack Biyombo (10.33) are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 32% (Willy Hernangomez), 1Q: 43%, Median: 49%, Mean: 46.83%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 56% (Cody Zeller)
6x%: Min: 11% (Nikola Vucevic), 1Q: 29%, Median: 33%, Mean: 30.55%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Gorgui Dieng)
- Top Centers to pay up for:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Andre Drummond | 9800 | 46.98 | 13.70 | 81.60 | 13.58 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| Joel Embiid | 9600 | 45.49 | 5.00 | 78.30 | 14.18 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 9000 | 42.08 | 19.50 | 62.90 | 9.80 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Rudy Gobert | 8000 | 40.11 | 15.20 | 60.00 | 10.42 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 0.06 |
- Top Values at Center:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Cody Zeller | 4500 | 23.92 | 5.20 | 55.30 | 9.61 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| Steven Adams | 5700 | 29.75 | 7.90 | 60.40 | 10.89 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 4000 | 21.00 | 5.50 | 44.90 | 9.90 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 6600 | 33.80 | 12.70 | 61.40 | 12.73 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 5000 | 25.57 | 4.80 | 51.40 | 9.79 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| Wendell Carter | 5400 | 27.48 | 8.40 | 46.00 | 9.01 | 0.52 | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| Thomas Bryant | 5000 | 25.57 | 3.60 | 50.20 | 11.12 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 4000 | 20.60 | 1.40 | 56.60 | 12.30 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.27 |
Cheap Plays
I’m going to include this section to help you guys pick the bottom of the barrel plays. I’ll keep this section to $4000 or less. It’s tough deciding what to do with that last bit of salary but this will definitely help eliminate options and narrow down your search to a couple guys. Compare the cheap guys across positions to gain even more of an edge tonight. See which are the best positions to pay up for and which are the best to pay down for. I’m also going to keep this to a minimum of 30 5x% to reduce the clutter.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Meyers Leonard | 3500 | 14.82 | 38.30 | 8.79 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| Anzejs Pasecniks | 3500 | 13.60 | 31.70 | 8.86 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Willy Hernangomez | 3500 | 13.40 | 36.60 | 8.82 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Mo Bamba | 3600 | 17.21 | 39.00 | 8.10 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 3600 | 16.98 | 40.40 | 9.89 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| Jahlil Okafor | 3600 | 16.17 | 57.30 | 12.69 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Bismack Biyombo | 3700 | 18.24 | 38.00 | 10.33 | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 3800 | 17.17 | 39.70 | 10.37 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Moritz Wagner | 3900 | 19.60 | 55.00 | 9.83 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 4000 | 21.00 | 44.90 | 9.90 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 4000 | 20.60 | 56.60 | 12.30 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.18 |
