Welcome to Brian’s CBB slate breakdown. In this article I will share a few of my top plays on the slate, and discuss who you should target in cash and gpp contests. If you would like to gain access to our CBB core plays, final thoughts, and premium discord, click here!
Guards
Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois) vs. Duke
Ayo is the 3rd highest priced player on todays slate, falling only below Luka Garza and Evan Mobley. Dosunmu is a usage monster. His usage is sitting at 31% right now to go along with a 28% shot rate. Duke really struggled defending the athleticism of Michigan State, and will struggle guarding a talent like Ayo. Ayo can do it all, he is shooting 50% from the field and he also is a very good rebounder and passer. Ayo is very active on the defensive end forcing other teams into turnovers. I believe Ayo has the second highest ceiling of any player on this slate, only behind Luka. I probably wont have the salary to get to him and Luka in cash, but he will be one of my priorities in gpps.
Alan Griffin (Syracuse) vs. Rutgers
Syracuse is running a really tight rotation of about 7 players. Griffin is playing north of 30 minutes per game and has seen his usage increase with the absence of Buddy Boeheim. Griffin is seeing a usage rate around 22% and a shot rate of 20%, both of which lead the team. He has also shot the ball well from deep this year shooting 43% from beyond the arc. This game vs. Rutgers is expected to be a close game, meaning his 30+ minutes of action should be secure. Griffin should continue to be one of the main offensive threats for this offense as long as Buddy is out.
RJ Davis & Caleb Love (UNC) vs. Iowa
The game total set for this UNC vs. Iowa game is ten points higher than the next highest total on this slate. I will be looking to get a good number of offensive weapons from both teams in this one. RJ Davis and Caleb Love both are very talented freshman guards for this UNC team. On the season so far, Love leads the Tar Heels with a 21% shot rate and 18% usage rate. If he can start getting his shot to fall, he should easily hit value at his $6400 price tag. RJ Davis is another talented freshman who has 15% shot rate and a 15% usage rate. RJ is the more talented shooter of the two, shooting 46% from 3, and comes in 1k cheaper than Love. RJ Davis can be considered for cash games, while Love is more of a GPP target.
Duane Washington Jr. (Ohio State) vs. Notre Dame
Washington is the usage leader for this Buckeyes squad with a 24% usage rate and also has a shot rate of 22%; all of this looks good for a team that is implied for 73 points today. Even though he is not making his shots at a high %, he continues to shoot at a high pace, and if his shot starts falling at a higher rate he has the ability to crush value at only $5,900.
Others to consider: M. Mathis (Rutgers); R. Harper (Rutgers); M. Jones (PSU); K. Richmond (SYR); S. Wheeler (UGA); P. Hubb (ND); T. Fagan (UGA); T. Fraizer (ILL); T. Radford (VT); W. Bede (VT)
Forwards
Luka Garza (Iowa) vs. UNC
I cannot believe that Garza is priced below 10k in this matchup. He is by far the best play on this slate and its not that close for me. He is playing in a game with the highest implied total and that has great pace. UNC does have a plethora of bigs to throw at Garza, but Garza’s usage rate of 38% cannot be overlooked. Garza should feast in this game, and has a ceiling of 50+. There is always a chance that the athletic bigs that UNC will throw at him could land him in foul trouble, making Ayo a good pivot in gpps, but in cash games, I will start my builds with Garza.
Matthew Hurt (Duke) vs. Illinois
After the first game of the season where Steward received all of the attention due to his massive performance, Hurt has reminded everyone that he is the top threat for this Duke team, and has played extremely well over the teams last 2 games. Over the last two games Hurt is averaging 22 points and 9 rebounds per game. Hurt has a 20% shot rate and 20% rebound rate. Duke has the 4th highest implied team total on this slate making Hurt a very solid play tonight.
UNC Frontcourt vs. Iowa
As of right now Garrison Brooks is still questionable due to an ankle injury, and has not practiced at all this week. I expect he will be fine and will play tonight, however, if he is out that gives Armando Bacot and Day’Ron Sharpe a huge bump. UNC will need their bigs to play many minutes tonight vs. arguably the best big man in the entire country. Bacot and Sharpe neither one have big usage rates, that’s mainly due to Brooks soaking it all up down low. So, if Brooks is ruled out, Bacot is one of the strongest values on the slate. Walker Kessler could even be considered if Brooks is out, he would see 14-18 minutes off the bench. If Brooks does play, he is an incredible play at only 8k, my top UNC target if he does play. Garza, as good as he is on offense, he is not a good defender. Brooks vs. Garza sign me up!
Toumani Camara (UGA) vs. Montana
Camara has a usage rate of 20% for this UGA team and has been a very productive rebounder and shot blocker when he is on the court. The downside to Camara is his tendency to get into foul trouble. If he can stay out of foul trouble he should be headed for a big time game tonight. Montana is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. Camara is priced at only $6,200 making him one of the stronger plays at forward tonight in one of the best matchups for a big.
Others to consider: Kyle Young (OSU); Q. Guerrier (SYR); K. Cockburn (ILL); W. Moore (Duke); K. Owens (Mont); E. Mobley (USC); S. Lundy (PSU); K. Aluma (VT)
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