Unfortunately, our PrizePicks play on Friday was canceled due to rain. Oddly enough, both Max Scherzer and the New York Mets and Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees were postponed that day. Ultimately, it won’t count for or against our props record because there was no result. We’re shifting over to NBA for tonight, as I feel there’s quite the edge on PrizePicks. Below, you’ll find my favorite plays for the Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks game.
If you’re interested in our premium props package, you can find it here. This is where you’ll get all of DFS Karma’s prop plays when they’re posted.
Sign up for PrizePicks using the promo code ‘KARMA’ to get 100% deposit bonus up to $100.
2/2 Power Play – Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
Al Horford over 3 assists
Horford’s seen his role change against the Milwaukee Bucks, as he’s locked into massive minutes for the Boston Celtics. He’s averaging 37.3 minutes per game this season after playing only 31.8 minutes per game against the Brooklyn Nets.
The increase in minutes has resulted in more opportunities as well. If we take his assists for face value, he’s posted 3+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games, including each of his 3 games against Milwaukee.
That isn’t what we’re looking for, though. Instead, let’s shift over to potential assists. The Celtics’ big man is averaging 8 potential assists per game against the Bucks this series. He ranks third on the team behind only Jayson Tatum (13) and Marcus Smart (10).
On the season, Horford’s averaging a 60.7% assist to potential assist ratio. In other words, we can expect that the veteran would average 4.9 assists per game this series at his current pace.
Although that hasn’t been the case, 3 is a key number here. He’s hit it in every game this series, and I don’t expect his role to change. He should continue to work as a solid facilitator, and I’m expecting some positive regression in that area. This number is simply too low.
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 7 assists
This is such an interesting spot because Antetokounmpo is in the exact same position as Horford. The only thing that’s changing is the numbers. He’s averaging 9 assists per game in this series, recording 7+ assists in every game. He’s also posted 7+ assists in 6 of his last 7 contests.
Antetokounmpo is averaging a team-high 13 potential assists per game against Boston in the playoffs. He ranked second on the team in potential assists (11.5) per game during the regular season with Jrue Holiday (13.5) taking the top spot.
In those regular-season games, Antetokounmpo posted a 50.9% assist to potential assist ratio. Although this is drastically below his average for this game, he’d still sit at 6.6 assists per game at his current number. It’s clear the former MVP is taking over games more, and he should continue to facilitate at an extremely high rate.
Similar to Horford, it’s important to note that 7 is the key number here. Having the ability to push on either of these players is extremely important, and I likely wouldn’t make this bet if either moves up 0.5 assists.
Bet Al Horford over 3 assists and Giannis Antetokounmpo over 7 assists to win 3x
