We’re coming off of an extremely frustrating loss, but everything went almost as planned. First, Zach Plesac easily hit over 2.5 strikeouts. He ended with 5 strikeouts over 4.2 innings. Framber Valdez is where the issue came in. He threw 7 innings, giving him ample time to hit over 4.5 strikeouts. He ended with 4, and we lost by the hook. It’s a tough loss, but we’re shifting over to NBA for the bet tonight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat.
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Prop Pick – Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points
Tatum’s been the star of the show during the incredible Boston Celtics playoff run. He struggled in one game this season, posting 10 points on only 14 shot attempts in the third game of the series. Besides that, Tatum’s averaging 29 points on 16.7 shot attempts, 7.3 three-point attempts, and 10.7 free throw attempts per game.
Tatum’s been surprisingly bad throughout the season against Miami, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. In these types of must-win games, the best players tend to show up, and Tatum is the leader of Boston.
It’s important to note that Tatum’s been a better scorer on the road this season, as he’s averaging 27.9 points per game away from home. He’s also shooting better in all facets of the game.
This series is tied 2-2, and I’m expecting the best players to take over the game. Tatum’s point total is also set at 28.5 on DraftKings, giving us a point edge.
Bam Adebayo over 8.5 rebounds
Adebayo’s been a bit boom or bust in this series, which has been the case in the entire NBA Playoffs. Games are blowouts, which has been difficult to predict what’s going to happen and who’s going to get minutes.
Overall, Adebayo’s recorded 9+ rebounds in 2 of his 4 games against Boston in the playoffs. He’s only averaging 10.8 rebound chances per game, but that number drops drastically because of his last game.
He saw only 7 rebound chances in a blowout where he played only 28 minutes. He recorded 12 rebound chances in 42 minutes the game before that. Adebayo also recorded 13 in 29 minutes and 11 in 37 minutes in the first two games of the series.
It’s clear that if the minutes are there, the opportunities will be there for the Miami big man. He’s also the best rebounder on his team, as he’s converting nearly 70% of his opportunities in this series.
I’m expecting this game to be a bit more competitive than the last, giving Adebayo more than enough minutes to hit the over.
Bet Jayson Tatum “more than” 27.5 points and Bam Adebayo “more than” 8.5 rebounds to 2.5x your buy-in
