Well, it’s easy to say last night was one of our most frustrating losses. Antonio Senzatela, who is arguably the worst strikeout pitcher in the MLB, threw only 2 innings. He hit the over. We also nailed Alex Wood struggling, throwing only 4.1 innings, yet he also found his over. It was a double loss when everything went as planned besides each pitcher somehow finding strikeouts in this game. We’re sticking on Monkey Knife Fight for this bet, but we’re switching over to NBA. Below, you’ll find my favorite prop pick for the Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.
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Prop Pick – Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points
Tatum’s been masterful in the NBA playoffs, as he’s scored 30+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s averaging 33.3 points per game over that span. His previous success is causing his points total to be a bit inflated tonight, though.
This is an entirely different series, as the Miami Heat boast an elite defense. Tatum averaged only 17.7 points per game against them this season. I’d expect him to take on a bigger role in this game, specifically in terms of minutes, than what he saw in the regular season.
Even in larger minutes, it’s difficult to believe a defense as good as Miami’s will allow Tatum to beat them. They slowed down Joel Embiid throughout their last series, and I’m expecting them to take a similar approach to Tatum.
The final key is Tatum’s position. Throughout the season, Miami’s allowed the fewest points per game to power forwards. They were also a better-than-average defense against small forwards. This total is slightly high, and although I expect Tatum to find success, he should stay under 28 points.
Jimmy Butler under 24.5 points
Butler is one of the most interesting players left in the playoffs at this point. He looks great for Miami, but he’s a player that shows up in the biggest moments. Although the first game is important, it isn’t necessarily a must-win game. In the first two games of his series’ these playoffs, Butler scored 20 and 15 points.
He plays several positions for Miami, making it difficult to judge who will guard him. With that being said, Boston is allowing the second-fewest points per game to shooting guards and small forwards this season. Butler will be a focal point of the Boston defense in a similar way to Tatum.
This game should be a defensive battle with a total of only 204 points. I love taking high unders in this type of situation.
Bet Jayson Tatum “less than” 27.5 points and Jimmy Butler “less than” 24.5 points to 3.6x your buy-in
