Fun 10-gamer today after what feels like a lot of smaller slates in a row. We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Kris Dunn: This is a battle between potentially two of the worst team’s in the NBA and I actually believe there are some good spots to be had from a fantasy perspective here given some soft pricing and the vegas implied point total of this game. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA this season at 105.32 possessions per game which is a boost for the Bulls PG but the Hawks also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating against the PG. We know how bad Trae Young is on the defensive end and I believe Dunn will be able to have his way with Young tonight. At 6.3k playing heavy minutes with the Bulls, I wouldn’t be surprised if the gameplan is to exploit this matchup giving Dunn a nice narrative usage boost. If this is the case he is one of the best GPP plays on the slate at single digit projected ownership.
- Mike Conley: Conley should be extremely contrarian today but there are a lot of positives working in his favor. Conley (as well as Gasol) was just made available for trade by the Grizzlies and if Conley wants to get away from a team that has the 2nd worst record in the West on a major losing streak in a small basketball market, I imagine he’s going to play his heart out and try to showcase his talent these next few games to draw some interest from other teams. In addition, from a matchup perspective, the Hornets are a middle of the road team defensive wise as well as to the positive boost in pace bodes well for Conley. 7.5k is steep and I don’t see a lot of people working him into their lineups from a game theory perspective. He’s got 50+ DK point upside tonight. I expect a big game.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Jeremy Lin: On the other side of this Hawks/Bulls game I actually am leaning with the backup PG for the Hawks in Lin at my SG position today. Lin has worked his way into significant minutes for this Hawks team and is another trade candidate likely desperate to get out of Atlanta as they are essentially tanking toward the end of Lin’s prime. Lin sees a very high usage rate while on the floor and we should continue to see that aggression on the offensive (and defensive end) as Lin is essentially playing to get out of Atlanta. At 4.2k I don’t see a game in which he doesn’t hit value tonight with so many factors pointing in the right direction for Lin. He’s a fantastic value.
- Jaylen Brown: With Irving out everyone is looking to Terry Rozier which obviously makes a lot of sense and will be 70+% owned tonight. However, in Irving’s last absence (albeit there were some other injuries in play), Brown had a huge game and I like his chances to capitalize again tonight with the usage hoard Irving off the court. Brown has seen major fluctuation in minutes as low as 13.5 and as high as 32 in his last 7 games. I believe the standard deviation of this data is keeping his projection’s down on a day he should see minutes towards the 28-32 range. I will be fitting Lin and Brown into a lot of my lineups which will open up loads of options.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Nicolas Batum: It’s hard to believe how much Batum has fallen off this year but his price currently is just way too cheap for a guy still playing so many minutes for the Hornets. At 4.5k, Batum, a do-it-all player does not necessarily need to have a huge scoring game to hit or exceed value at this price. With Mike Conley locking up Kemba Walker tonight (my opinion on how the game script turns out), I think a lot of shots and usage will be available for some other player’s leading to an above average scoring night for Batum. Don’t be surprised when he easily hits for over 30 DK points tonight.
- Bojan Bogdanovic: After a few days of riding a Bogdanovic we turn to the more consistent, but less talented of the two on this 10 game slate. Bojan Bogdanovic has quietly put together a great season for the Pacers as one of the key players to their success. Bojan has quietly averaged 16/4.1/1.7 while shooting an outstanding 43.3% from three. With Leonard out again tonight the Raptors are going to be weaker with their perimeter defense and I can see where Bojan pours it in as a major contributor to the projected 112 Pacers points. He’s got a very nice ceiling in this spot and should be somewhere around 4% owned.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Pascal Siakam: I’m going to turn back to my home-boy tonight with Leonard out where his ownership should take a major dip with obviously 10 games + the fact that he didn’t exactly dominate last night as major chalk on Draftkings. Siakam is a major talent in the league and should continue to be a major contributor for this Raptors offense/defense. I actually really like this matchup with Thaddeus Young where Siakam has a couple inches on him and should be able to go to work. Hopefully, his usage rate takes a spike over his season average with Leonard’s continued absence and we get a big game out of him tonight!
- Aaron Gordon: Gordon has the best matchup in this spot against a Nets team that should struggle with Gordon’s size/athleticism on the defensive end where they really have no one who can guard him. Gordon should come out extremely hot out of the gate against Kurucs in which I imagine he has at least 50 pounds on him. Carroll will likely give him a better fight for his money later in the game but obviously will not do much to slow a player like Gordon down. Gordon put up 23 real points on only 13 shots last week against the Nets and I expect him to have a larger role in this one. If he can continue the same efficiency he could post a MONSTER score.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Hassan Whiteside: The minutes here for Whiteside are projected to be under 25 which obviously limits his ceiling a bit but a 1.35 FP/min scorer this year in literally the best matchup for centers on the board should be able to do some damage. Whiteside will likely be matched up with Harrell a lot who doesn’t stretch the floor allowing Whiteside to stay near the paint where he’s most comfortable. If Whiteside is doing well defensively he’ll likely exceed his projected minutes total while I believe he should have no problem dominating on the offensive end against an undersized front court (unless the Clippers roll out Boban – then we’re in trouble lol). I love the price on Whiteside tonight with the ceiling we know this guy has.
- Jahill Okafor: Okafor has a chip on his shoulder and should be locked into big minutes tonight against a big Pistons front-court. If Drummond plays it will actually be a boost for Okafor’s minute projections as they’ll need his size on the court to matchup. Okafor is going to take the opportunity he’s getting from the Pelicans right now to show what he can do and I expect high energy/usage/minutes from Okafor the next 2-4 weeks and it is 100% time to buy low on him as his price will continue to increase. 4.6k is a steal in my opinion.
Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage
