One of the last slates I’ll be working on for NBA this season with MLB starting up this week and obviusly most of the Karma team turning our attention that direction. Let’s close out strong.
My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Tyus Jones: Jones has been on the come up with both point guards ahead of him on the roster now out for the season. Look for this trend to continue for Jones who is an underrated player in today’s NBA. He should see similair usage rates to what he has been in the main role (20-25% ideally), and we haven’t seen his ceiling come into play yet. He’s going to contribute across multiple categories and his assist numbers are pretty stable. Once we see an efficient shooting night with this new type of volume, we’ll see a big game from the Wolves point guard.
- Trae Young: Him or Luka Doncic is the question a lot of DFS analysts are going to be keeping under a microscope tonight and I believe the Luka is the much safer option while Young, who’s naturally more volatile – dependent on shooting, is the riskier option. No one can deny what Young has been able to do since the ASB and I can’t imagine him slowing down with all the support he’s gotten for rookie of the year the last few days. This could be the Young show tonight once again down in New Orleans.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Lou Williams: I really think there is a lot to like about this Clippers Timberwolves game and with so much exposure to the Wolves tonight I’m going to want to bring it back with a Clippers player. No one better than one of the most volatile/high upside players on the team in Lou Williams. The price point here is fine as we really don’t see it go much farther out of the 6.7-7.3k range so getting it on the lower half of that spectrum provides some value. After three down games Williams exploded against the Knicks for a huge game. Expect him to keep the hot streak going tonight against a Timberwolves team in what is projected to be a tight game.
- Lance Stephenson: The Lakers are officially eliminated from the playoffs and to keep fans coming to the arena and happy I wouldn’t be surprised to see ‘Lance make ’em dance’ on display the next couple weeks. Lance is priced extremely cheaply at 3.6k and we know that he has a ceiling given minutes in a high usage role. He saw 25 minutes the other night against the Kings so we know his minutes aren’t going to be monitored. I think he falls between 25-30 minutes tonight which is more than enough time for him to crush his price tag on Draftkings.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Kenrich Williams: I’ve been suckered onto Kenrich Williams a few times where he really hasn’t came through with the ceiling I’ve been looking for. With that being said, the ceiling is there and this game against the Hawks with an over/under exceeding 240 points seems like an awesome spot for Williams who is still seeing 25-30 minutes per game. His price is down to 4.2k, a spot where he has proven multiple times this season he’s capable posting a massive score. This is a bargain for him where his projected ownership is under 10%.
- Justin Jackson: It seems like Jackson is going to be a contrarian option today which is surprising due to three straight games of exceeding value on Draftkings. With that being said, this seems like a spot one could take advantage of in GPPs if not comfortable with Williams or falling a few hundred dollars short where Jackson is only 3.8k. In a non-blowout his minutes should be fairly stable in the 28-32 minute range and we saw he is able to score in the 25-30 DK point range when presented with the opportunity.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Larry Nance Jr.: Three straight games going for 6x at his current price, including a 43 DK point game on March 6th. Ironically, Nance’s price is the lowest it’s been over this stretch and I want to take full advantage of it tonight in a game the Cavs are projected to keep competitive with the Irving-less Celtics. Nance, for me, is a lock for a double-double tonight if he gets 30+ minutes and should easily post another 6x performance. Keep an eye on the status of the Celtics frontcourt. Horford out would be another (+) for Nance. Either way, Tatum/Horford are banged up tonight and should get bullied by Nance on both ends of the court.
- Bobby Portis: This is a role Portis is going to continue to thrive in on the Wizards where they actually give him consistent minutes. The Lakers have been getting exposed in the frontcourt as a team that rarely plays defense. LeBron playing tonight would essentially be a plus for the Wizards considering he has completely given up on this season. Portis’s price is on the rise due to his consistency but we really haven’t seen his ceiling come in to play for about two weeks. I think we’ll end up getting a 40+ DK point game out of Portis tonight.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Nikola Vucevic: People aren’t projected to be high on Vucevic today and I think that is a major mistake. The Magic are the 9th seed and pushing hard for a playoff spot. I don’t think minutes are going to be an issue here on the second leg of a B2B where Vuc was only forced to play 28 minutes last night. He should be locked in for 35+ tonight against the Heat who are actually projected to win this game. The total is extremely down here but the price on Vuc is the lowest we’ve seen since early February and the ceiling is there. I’m going to take advantage of the extremely low ownership tonight and take a risk paying up for Vuc where everyone is scared off because of the implied team total.
- Thomas Bryant (Chalk): Thomas Bryant is the chalk play of the night and I’m going to have close to 100%. This guy is a beast when he sees minutes and he should see over 30 again tonight. At 5.2k, a massive game is extremely possible and I believe you’d be making a mistake tonight not getting exposure to him in all types of contests. Let’s not forget this is a #revenge game for him against his former team that never gave him a chance.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
