Another shorter 7-game slate tonight. At this point in the regular NBA season be sure to retract your bankroll exposure nightly. Baseball is almost here and this is the worst time of year to play NBA DFS, especially with the NCAA tourney going on.
My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- D’Angelo Russell: DLo’s price has skyrocketed after we got exposure to him in his last game against the Kings where he exploded for 44 real life points. Tonight, ownership levels on him are going to be down due to be jamming in the value of Dorsey, Wright, and even FVV. DLo is facing his former team in the Lakers and the Nets have the chance to knock them out of playoff contention tonight with a win. There are huge narratives at play in this game against these two mini-rivals and you better expect DLo to show up for a huge game once again. 8.3k is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a player with a ceiling obviously over 60 Draftkings points (went for 77 DK points against the Kings).
- Other TOP Options: Tyler Dorsey, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet, Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Lou Williams: Obviously we could be looking at a blowout here but these games matter for seeding in the West as nobody wants to get matched up with the Warriors in the first round. Lou Williams should see his normal 28-30 minutes tonight with an insanely high volume of shots and usage rating. The spread on this game is only 6.5 so that tells me we likely will not see a blowout many people might be concerned about, and coming off a few cold shooting nights, Lou Will could be primed for a bounce-back game tonight where his price is down a couple hundred from his season average.
- Other TOP Options: Justin Holiday, Josh Richardson, James Harden
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Mario Hezonja: Playing any Knicks after what we’ve seen this season is a risky proposition but I’m willing to take a chance today on Hezonja who has seen some pretty stable minutes lately, obviously with fluctuations but not many games where he sees under 20 minutes. We can likely expect 25-27 minutes from Hezonja tonight with an obvious upside for more judging off Fizdale’s rotations. He sees a pretty high usage rate on the floor, coming off a 31% usage game, and has been a much more productive fantasy player lately. He’s someone who I will try to get overexposure to in my GPP lineups and use to leverage off the value plays at guard.
- Other TOP Options: Rudy Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Bruno Caboclo
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Mason Plumlee: Plumlee is an extremely risky play tonight, there is no denying that. But given his price point, he actually has a huge ceiling. He’s been a beast on the boards for the Nuggets and the Knicks are obviously weaker on the interior. In 70% of his last ten games, Plumlee has exceeded value on Draftkings. He’s consistently under 5% owned and has posted multiple 30+ DK point games when he can put up double-digit points. The rebounds are pretty stable and if we can get a Plumlee scoring spike tonight, he’ll crush value at super lower ownership.
- Other Top Options: Pascal Siakam, James Johnson, Ersan Ilyasova
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Jarrett Allen: I really like the idea of pairing Allen with DLo tonight on Draftkings tonight. Allen has shown his upside at multiple times this season and even with his price creeping up to 5.5k on Draftkings the upside remains, which we saw in a 43 DK point game just a few weeks ago against the Hawks. The Lakers are extremely weak on the interior ranking DEAD LAST in the NBA in defensive ratings against centers the past 10 games (24.7), which is around the time that this roster has essentially stabilized. The Nets are favored here and the total is up there at 231. Allen should play a huge factor in this game tonight.
- Other Top Options: Jonas Valanciunus, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
