Going to keep things rolling today after a day off yesterday due to a busy IRL day. Let’s crush this short six-game slate. Get pumped for MLB! It’s so close I can smell it!
My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Reggie Jackson: Griffin out for the Pistons opens up a ton of potential in this lineup that seems entirely under-priced across the board. This is not as extreme of a situation as we saw on Monday or Tuesday with the Thunder and Westbrook, but this is a similair situation where an extremely high usage player is listed out but the teammates around him pricing has remained unchanged by Draftkings creating a nice edge here for these guys. The key here will be nailing the ceiling plays. Jackson has that type of ceiling with the increased usage he’ll get tonight. 5.1k with his usage between 27-30% will be more than enough for him to have an opportunity to smash his price tag.
- Other TOP Options: Ricky Rubio, Ish Smith (Pivot?), De’Aaron Fox
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic: You guys probably have caught on that I am a big player of Bogdan in GPPs this season and for the most part, this has been a + EV strategy. Of late, he’s seeing slighlty less minutes per game with more players healthy on this team but the fact he’s only 4.5k (only $500 more than his teammate Harry Giles), is a joke. Bogdan has a 45-50 DK point ceiling even when he only gets 25-30 minutes per game. The total on this game is likely to surpass 230 and the Kings are pretty heavy favorites where a lot of points will be coming in on that side. Bogdan is a guy who could post a huge game today and on a six-game slate, I love the leverage we’re projected to see where Bogdan is under 15% owned.
- Other TOP Options: Jamal Murray (Chalk), Luke Kennard, Langston Galloway
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Mikal Bridges: Kelly Oubre’s done for the season, and the Suns have a rotation of 6 players who will see significant minutes tonight. Bridges is one of these guys where he has been on the floor for HEAVY minutes for the Suns, as they are using this time of the season to develop there younger players. Bridges usually doesn’t see a high usage rate but the ceiling is there for him when he takes the opportunity. With the limited options on this offense, there are going to be players that exceed value tonight and similair to the Pistons, on the other side of this game, I’m going to be overexposed to the Suns side. I really like the idea of a game stack here with some high upside/expensive pieces surrounding the stack. (Make sure to check out my Core on Draftkings tonight – which can be accessed @ www.dfskarma.com/shop)
- Other TOP Options: Josh Jackson (You know I’m all in here), Andrew Wiggnis (Concerned about ceiling but in a good spot), Justin Jackson (Revenge Punt?)
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Paul Millsap: The Nuggets are implied for close to 120 points tonight, something we’ve become numb to this season in the NBA. However, something that is fairly new to this rotation is the consistent minutes for Paul Millsap over 30-32 per game. Millsap has seen high 30’s and even a 40 minute game over his past couple contests. Tonight he’s priced only 6.7k where we now know his minutes ceiling is significantly higher. Millsap has posted four straight games exceeding value on Draftkings (including a 50 burger), and has gone for single digit ownership in every single one of those games. Although he may fall closer to the 10-15% range tonight with less games on this slate, he is one of the top GPP options available.
- Other Top Options: Thon Maker (Risky chalk), Dragan Bender, John Collins
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Andre Drummond: I hate to list Drummond here as he will be very popular again tonight but similair to the other night where all of Karma locked him in, it is hard not to play him given the price + Griffin still sidelined. He’s severely underpriced at 8.7k, only $100 more coming off a 61.75 point game against the Cavs. That same upside is there tonight where these games MATTER for the Pistons as playoff standings are tight and crucial for this team. I’m going to be heavily exposed to this Pistons/Suns game and Drummond is one of the key pieces needed in this game stack. You CAN pivot to some of the options below at a similair price (Jokic/Towns) who have just as high a ceiling but are slightly more expensive/lower owned if you are looking for more leverage. If you need to pay down a bit I LOVE Ayton while Turner is more of a pivot in that price range.
- Other Top Options: Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeAndre Ayton, Myles Turner
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
