Happy Monday Karma Nation!! This evening we have a pretty big 9-game slate on our hands so make sure to be in our DISCORD chat closer to lock to stay up to date with news, updates, and thoughts from myself and the rest of the Karma team.
My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Dennis Schroder: Not very surprised to see projected ownership on Schroder skyrocket from previously this morning when I laid out the template for this article. I’m going to leave Schroder even with the increased ownership projections as it is just a sign I was hitting the nail on the head with this play, in all formats, even if he doesn’t come in ‘low-owned’. Ownership levels matter the least in NBA DFS as I continue to say all season. With Westbrook out tonight due to his suspension, there is no reason to expect Schroder to fall anywhere short of value. At 5.1k locked in for 35+ tonight he is the lock of the slate.
- Dwayne Wade (Low-Owned Punt): Now for those of you who are looking to get #weird at some of the other guard eligible positions, Dwayne Wade is a guy I have my eye on. On the other side of this OKC game, the Heat are fighting for the playoffs as the eighth seed in the East with only one game up on the surging Orlando Magic. This is Wade’s last season and I guarantee he has his eyes set on one last playoff run. His age/conditioning shouldn’t be a factor tonight and he should easily surpass his projected minutes workload. At 4.4k, where I am factoring him for 28-30 minutes, he has an awesome ceiling and will be 2% owned.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Zach LaVine: Although the Bulls are essentially tanking, LaVine has not slowed down at all and is looking more like the star the Bulls traded for. LaVine is averaging 1.19 FP/min over the course of the past month and has consistently been locked in for 36-38 MPG in games the Bulls aren’t blown out. Tonight they get a fantastic matchup against an equally poor Suns team which is pictured in the extremely tight 1.5 spread. These are the games LaVine thrives in and at 7.9k, it is very possible he scores more than 30 real life points tonight en route to another big 50+ DK point game, something we’ve seen a lot of from LaVine over the last few weeks.
- Raymond Felton (Punt): If you’re really looking to punt tonight I love the idea of taking a shot on Raymond Felton at the stone minimum on Draftkings. With Westbrook out, Felton is going to slide into that Dennis Schroder type role as one of the first guys and likely the first guard off the bench. Terrance Ferguson isn’t going to be a high usage player and I really could see Felton getting around 25 minutes tonight even though most projections have him around 19-22 max. This seems like a great spot for Felton who could easily put up 7-10x if given 25 minutes.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Bojan Bogdanovic: This man has been on a tear since Oladipo went down and I don’t expect him to slow down as the Pacers reach the home stretch of the season. 5.9k might seems pricey for some but at 1.05 FP/min he is averaging a full .18 this month than his seasonal average, a substantial difference. He’s been a scoring machine and a major contributor on the boards only increasing his floor/ceiling combo. I don’t love the total in this game but Bojan is my favorite piece from the Pacers side of things where it could be sharp to bring him back with whatever Blazers you are exposed to with McCollum out tonight.
- Josh Jackson (LOCK): I believe it is officially Josh Jackson season as we’re seeing the scoring and minutes boost for him towards the end of the season. As I said, I had my pool of players listed for this article this morning before all the injury news on the Suns came out. Now Jackson’s projected to see an additional full 10 minutes tonight. I don’t need to bring much analysis here had these injuries not come into play, he is a LOCK in all formats tonight for me.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Domantas Sabonis: The Pacers/Blazers stack could become interesting where obviously there is a lot of usage/minutes opened up on the Blazers side of things where people will likely be overexposed. Bringing it back with Bojan and/or Sabonis really gives you a ton of upside in the event of a shootout or potential overtimes (an underrated factor in NBA DFS). The spread is pretty tight with the Blazers only favored by 4 and with McCollum out they could struggle early. Sabonis should be locked in for his regular 25-28 minute role tonight but we’ve seen his price come down significantly from the 7.5k range it was at earlier this season. At just 5.6k we are getting exposure to a really high ceiling from Sabonis who is volatile but will only see single digit ownership tonight.
- Jerami Grant: Grant is projected to be under 5% owned and I’m all for it. People don’t realize how many more rebounds will go to the PF/C on this team with Westbrook out of the picture. Grant is priced extremely fair in a role he should see his normal amount of minutes with an additional 3-4 rebounds tonight. In ten of his last eleven games he has scored in double figures so I believe he’s a great bet for a double-double tonight.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Andre Drummond: Really disappointed that Griffin got ruled out tonight as he was priced at 7.2k, but I think it just increases the spot for Drummond who will get fairly low ownership considering how spread out the center position is. Drummond is the best bet on this slate for a 20/20 game and his price is essentially 2k cheaper than we saw earlier this season when he was producing at even a lower level than he has the past couple weeks. With Griffin out, all the rebounds should be coming Drummond’s way and he should get some more touches in the paint. 8.6k seems way too cheap for Drummond tonight in a spot I’d likely be exposed to if he was a full 1-1.2k more.
- Steven Adams: Obviously you can’t play all these Thunder players but the subtraction of Westbrook from this lineup is really going to open a lot of things for so many guys that are underpriced. It is at the point where multiple players can hit value but we need to nail those players who have that ceiling. Adams is on the safer side so I understand if you don’t love him in GPPs as much as a guy like Jerami Grant but I felt like I needed to include him. Similair to Grant the additional rebounds should be coming his way and he likely will get a few more touches on the ball without Westbrook. The price has just come way down on Adams where at 5.5k he does have a nice ceiling.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
