Back to normal today where I’ll be in Discord around lock and my article will include two top GPP plays from each position with the anlysis behind the play. My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- De’Aaron Fox: With ownership levels currently below 20% I’m considering Fox for the #1 spot at the PG position as this game is just too elite of a spot to pass up. Really we have four games on this slate with tight spreads and very high over/unders. The key to winning this slate will be overexposed to the OT game that is a high possibility given the tight spreads + nailing the value. This Kings/Wizards game, IMO, is the best game on the slate to be overexposed to in a stack with a lot of value, the highest total, and the tighest spread. If you’re looking to get contrarian with another game stack, the Nets/Pistons or Clippers/Celtics seem to appeal the most to me. Fox is only 7.3k and is essentially a lock for value with what vegas is telling us.
- Austin Rivers (Punt): I don’t always punt at the PG position where there usually is a ton of upside, but today Rivers pops off the page to me at just 3.1k. He’s playing the Hornets in a pace up game with a fairly high total. Although he has been a horrible fantasy producer of late, he is going to see over 25 minutes with a usage rate around 15%. These are the type of numbers in which a player who sees a solid shooting night + some periphrial’s bouncing their way could easily go for over 30 DK points. 10x is on the table tonight with Rivers.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Spencer Dinwiddie: This is a #revenge narrative game for Dinwiddie against his former team that had sent him to the GLeague and cut him from the team. He has had multiple huge games against them in the past and has hit insanely clutch shots. There is obviously an edge factor here for Dinwiddie. This is also basically the biggest game of the season for the Nets where they are 1/2 game back of the 6th seed which is currently held by the Pistons. This is going to be the difference of playing the Sixers/Pacers or the Raptors. Huge playoff implications at stake and with Dinwiddie back to 100% and seeing his normal allotment of minutes we can expect a big game here.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic: There will be a lot of ownership condensed at the SG position with Ingles/Williams/Beal the main guys. Bogdanovic is one of my favorite players to roster in DFS and in a game I am going to be extremely overexposed to I want Bogdan in the majority of my lineups. His price has come up a bit of late due to a huge 58 DK point game against the Bucks but keep in mind that is the type of upside he brings to the table.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Cedi Osman: Small forward is coming off as one of the chalkiest positions on the slate where it will liekly be difficult to get off some of the main guys in Morris, Barnes, or Bridges. Osman is a nice pivot off of these guys in a similair price range where he has actually been outproducing them from a fantasy perspective over the last few weeks. He’s shot very poorly his last two games which will drive people off him but prior to that he was averaging 40 DK points a game over a three game stretch. The upside is definitley there for him.
- Danilo Gallinari: Gallinari has quitely been producing at a high level averaging .17 more FP/min the last month which was likely a result of the trades for the Clippers. If this production sustains, Gallinari is only going to see his price increase from 6.4k as he sees consistent minutes in the mid 30’s with a usage rate in the mid-high 20’s. This Clippers game is one that could be critical tonight to have pieces from and Gallinari is looking like he’ll be sub 15% owned. A great pivot at a chalky position.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Nemanja Bjelica: We haven’t heard too much of Bjelica this season but with the injury to Marvin Bagley we are seeing a mini-emergence of late. Bjelica has the capability to post huge games and the minutes should be there tonight in what is going to be an extremely high pace game with little defense. Bjelica has a (+) matchup against the Wizards frontcourt and has been close to a FP/min producer when playing regular minutes. He’s another piece of this Kings team I’ll want tonight.
- Jeff Green: On the other side of the court, I have a hard time swallowing Jeff Green, even at 4.4k, but he does have a ton of upside just by being on the floor for 30 minutes in a game that is projected to go over 240 total points. His usage rate isn’t actaully that terrible for a PF, he just isn’t a very talented player. Oppurtunity is what matters tonight though and Jeff Green could be critical to a Kings/Wizards stack.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Andre Drummond: I’m going to be 100% Andre Drummond tonight and even if he’s 50% owned (which he won’t be), I think you should be too. Drummond is as close to a lock as comes for a 20/20 game against a Nets team that has proven it cannot handle size this season. Jarrett Allen shows up on the highlight reel with his insane blocks on big time players, but isn’t able to guard a player backing him down in the paint or boxing out for a rebound. Allen is just too early in his development to be able to handle a 280+ pound Andre Drummond who has nearly 50 pounds and height on him. Drummond is going to eat.
- Ed Davis: The Nets best shot of matching up with this huge Pistons team is playing Ed Davis for extended minutes tonight. Davis is one of the best rebounders in the NBA but that’s really all he does and really all we need him to do at just 3.2k on Draftkings where some points and periphrials are bound to come his way. Davis should get close to 25 minutes tonight in which he actually has a lot of upside. A double-double for him shouldn’t be out of the question which would make him well on his way to a 10x game.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
