An odd Friday slate where we only have 7 games and a later 730 start. No matter! Let’s start March off with some big scores and takedowns KarmaNation! My core had been on fire of late prior to the break so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Lou Williams: There are a ton of high upside options available on this slate between Lillard, Walker, Irving, and even Trae Young. But Lou Williams seems to be going overlooked on this slate where he comes in as the cheapest option of the five. Williams actually projects for the highest usage rate on the slate at the point guard position but is slated for half the ownership as the more expensive dogs. As the Clippers try to hold on to the eight seed in the west the rest of the way I could see them leaning on Williams more and more leading to an increase in his minutes. This total is near 240 points for the Clippers and Kings, Lou Will will be carrying a lot of the scoring load.
- Kris Dunn: Dunn priced only 5.5k seems like a bargain even with how bad he played from a basketball perspective the last month or two. This will be his 4th game back and his minutes have bee on a consistent rise which will likely be joined by a higher usage rate.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Kevin Huerter: Huerter is back seeing heavy minutes for the Hawks and 3.5k makes for a fantastic punt play. He is facing a defense that is in the bottom half of the league against guards and given his price plus expected minute’s tonight he should have no trouble reaching value with a nice 7-8x ceiling.
- Jrue Holiday: Holiday may be one of the players I prioritize paying up for tonight. The Pelicans are implied for a crazy high 122 points and this is with Anthony Davis playing 20 minutes or less per game. Jrue Holiday is averaging 1.33 FP/min since the Davis fiasco began and should continue this run of elite fantasy scoring. The Suns are another team that are extremely weak against the guard position defensively. Holiday has a massive ceiling tonight and I’m high on him where he is projected for under 15% ownership on Draftkings.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Gordon Hayward: Hayward’s price has plummented and this is in my opinion the lowest I can imagine it getting. Hayward is going to see the same role/minutes and his shooting will bounce back. 4.1k is pretty insane for the type of upside we know he can provide. The Celtics are another team with a huge implied total tonight and there will be multiple players from this team exceeding value. You have to think 4.1k for Hayward, he will be one of them.
- DeMarre Carroll: Dinwiddie is back with the Nets but that isn’t supposed to impact Carroll’s role too much as most projections have him in for 25-27 minutes tonight. Carroll seems to be preferred in cruical games over Kurucs in the rotation and is an overall more consistent option. Carroll at 3.8k is a great value.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Harrison Barnes: We were on Barnes last game where he crushed value nearing 8x. Tonight his price has only increased by $500 and with the injury to Bagley we should see major minutes for Barnes again with a higher usage rate similair to something we would of saw when he played a larger role with the Mavericks. This extremely high paced game should be a perfect oppurtunity for Barnes to post another game in the 30+ DK point range.
- John Collins: Collins at 7k is a steal given the type of upside he provides. He’s caught the questionable tag which will severly lower his ownership even if he gets his status upgraded closer to lock. With that being said, if his status remains the same (illness), Collins should come in single digit owned against a team he should feast on. The Bulls are terrible against bigs when it comes to rebounding and Collins should have the oppurtunity to feast on the boards. If he can keep up with his 1.2 FP/min he’s seen over the course of the season he could easily go for a massive score under 10% owned. This is a situation to monitor.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Brook Lopez: Brook Lopez may not be the most elite of plays tonight but he is certainly up there if you’re looking to differentiate at the center position. Narrative SZN comes into play here where Lopez was the starting center for the Lakers just last season. The Lakers chose not to give him a new contract and now he is the starting center playing heavy minutes for one of the top teams in the NBA. Loepz has been averaging a fantasy point per minute this season and usually gets over 30 minutes for the Bucks a game. I can imagine we see a usage spike tonight against his former team. 5k is a fine price to pay for major upside in GPPs.
- Jusuf Nurkic: Nurkic is one of my favorite player to target in NBA DFS as he is a volatile upside as an extremely high FP/min producer. Nurkic has slowed down a bit of late but is still averaging 1.23 per minute and should have no problem dominating the Raptors undersized front court, at least with Marc Gasol playing less than 25 minutes a game. Nurkic’s price has come down to the point where he actually has a 7x type of celing in the mid-high price range.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
