We have an OK six-game slate tonight. There’s going to be a lot of chalk in Bam/Schroder/etc. Let’s make some good pivots. My core had been on fire of late prior to the break so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Ben Simmons: Simmons is my lock of the night and someone I likely will have exposure to in all of my builds. This Sixers/Thunder game stands out above all the other’s and while I obviously love some pieces from the Thunder side, I do think I’ll end up with more players from the Sixers. Still, no Embiid providing more rebound and scoring opportunities for Simmons. 8.4k is a fine price for a player with his type of ceiling, especially on Draftkings. Bold call tonight is Simmons gets a triple-double AND makes his first NBA three-pointer.
- Dennis Schroder: He’s the lock of the night so don’t miss this.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Joe Ingles: Joe Harris ended up letting us down yesterday in a game the Nets looked awful as a whole. Ingles, however, is a more consistent option who is locked in for 32+ minutes tonight at 5k against the Nuggets in a 225 o/u matchup. Ingles has flashed his ceiling at times this season as in the high 30’s while once going for a huge 48 DK point game. Ingles has posted three straight games of DK points over 32 and is a fantastic play at just 5k. Pricing seems off in this one.
- Klay Thompson: No Durant tonight means scoring is going to be made up elsewhere and with the way Draymond has played this season, you can almost expect under 10 points from him. It will really come down to Curry, Klay, and Cousins to bolster all the scoring on a thinnish Warriors roster when it comes to scoring. Klay is the most underpriced of the group and we know he can put the ball in the hoop. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those insane Klay shooting nights in Orlando.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Bojan Bogdanovic: I’ve ridden Bojan a good bit since the injury to Oladipo and it has been a + EV move for the most part. Bojan is averaging .94 FP/min (compared to .84 FP/min) since Oladipo went down and should continue to put up these types of numbers as the Pacers close out the season. His price is the lowest it’s been since February 2nd, despite exceeding value in five straight contests. Bojan should extend the streak to six tonight with ease against the Timberwolves.
- Justise Winslow: The Heat seem like the toughest spot to figure out tonight and while Bam is likely going to be in a ton of my lineups, the only other player I’m truly comfortable with is Justise Winslow from an upside standpoint. Point Winslow should be in full effect tonight and we should see a nice usage/minutes boost with some injuries to the roster and the likelihood of Wade playing fewer minutes tonight after a dramatic win over the Warriors last night. 5k for Winslow seems like a steal where it will be difficult for him not to exceed value the way he contributes in peripheral categories.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Kevin Love: Either I love targeting players when they play in MSG for the narrative or I just love targeting players who play the Knicks. Probably a bit of both. With Love projected to get over 30 minutes tonight he immediately becomes an elite GPP value with a double-double likely a lock and a huge ceiling as one of the only capable Cavs players. It will be interesting to see how Love closes out the season after missing so much time but the 30 year old PF can still get it done at a high level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a usage rate over 30% tonight.
- Bam Adebayo: Lock chalk.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Nikola Jokic: Outside of Simmons, Jokic is one of my top options to pay up for which is usually my approach to the center position where points here are so crucial to the rest of your lineup. Jokic by no means will be low owned tonight, but that is no longer the best approach to take in NBA DFS compared to a sport like MLB or NFL. Jokic is only 10k and the matchup with Rudy Gobert can scare people off. Jokic is as matchup-proof as centers come and should post another 50+ DK point game tonight.
- Myles Turner: I don’t love Turner tonight but I’m willing to take a shot on him in GPPs where he projects one of the lower owned options with the ability to surpass 50 DK points. Karl-Anthony Towns defense is always something to get exposure to and the price on Turner is a good one. If I wasn’t paying up for Jokic in most places while locking in Bam, I’d likely have a lot more of Turner. (Also he’s burned me too many times in the past but that’s some personal bias that shouldn’t factor in to your decision making).
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
