Solid 9-game slate tonight with a lot of great plays and the ownership spread out nicely. My core had been on fire of late prior to the break so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Jeff Teague: Before the ASB after Teague came back from injury he was tearing up the league in his three-game stint averaging over 1.31 FP per minute. Now, Teague is back in the starting lineup for the Wolves expected to see a heavy minutes load as the teams starting point guard. The Knicks are one of the weakest teams in the league when it comes to defensive rating against guards this season en route to their obvious tank. Teague isn’t going to be too high-owned tonight but his price is fantastic on Draftkings below 6k. He’s one of my favorite plays where I think he’s going to go under-owned.
- Lou Williams: William’s has been an extremely volatile option over the course of the season but since the departure of Tobias Harris he has posted some massive games for the Clippers where he has taken over a lot of the scoring role. William’s has scored 30 or more real-life points in four of his last seven games. The 109 total for the Clippers is solid tonight and I believe Williams is going to be a huge contributor to the total.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Joe Ingles: Ingles always goes under-owned but has shown this year that he can contribute in peripheral categories as well as scoring. Ingles is going to be half the ownership of Batum tonight yet contributes to fantasy scoring at a much higher rate per minute and posts a higher usage rate over the course of this season in addition to his projections for tonight. Paying $400 extra is worth he type of leverage you get by rostering Ingles over Batum tonight.
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: We’ve yet seen THJ post a big game with the Mavericks but we know his scoring potential and he’s been seeing a usage rate over 25% on a consistent rate with his new team. If he can combine an OK scoring night with some peripherals he could smash tonight at just 5.1k After looking deeper into this play I’m really coming around to it. I’ll be close to 100% on THJ tonight.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- DeAndre Bembry (punt): Bazemore is going to be the chalk at this position with the minutes opening up for the Hawks with Huerter out. While I’m going to have a ton of Bazemore, I like getting both him and Bembry into a lineup to maximize the opening up of value with these two cheap options. Bembry has been horrible since getting his minutes cut in this rotation but an increased role on the floor could help with his rhythm/confidence, especially after the ASB. At 3.3k he doesn’t really need to do much to help out your lineups tonight.
- Dorian Finney Smith: It’s going to be really tough to avoid the chalk at SF but with Luka Doncic questionable tonight DFS (lol), could open up as a fantastic value option where he already is seeing 30+ minutes a night and could be in line for a massive usage boost. Again, I likely would only be high on DFS if Doncic is out but it’s something to monitor. I am likely sticking with the chalk at SF.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Luke Kornet: The day before the ASB, Luke Kornet crushed value while shooting 3 of 16 from the field. His price has only rose $300, and he should see somewhere in the ballpark of minutes he saw in that game. If he can have a solid shooting night he could easily hit 10x. I hate getting exposure to Knick’s players as it is usually – EV, but I am riding Kornet tonight.
- Aaron Gordon: The Magic are playing well and I want exposure to this front court tonight against the Bulls where the Magic are over 110 points implied. Gordon is just 6.6k which is appropriate but really doesn’t take into account his volatility which provides him with such a high ceiling. Gordon’s role has not changed and likely won’t for the remainder of the season barring an injury, but Gordon’s upside in this matchup is over 50 DK points. He’s someone I love in GPPs tonight but likely would avoid in cash games.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Blake Griffin: Griffin is someone I’m prioritizing to pay up for tonight, which really isn’t a problem with so much value at other positions. Griffin is priced below 9k again and gets one of the best matchups on the board today against a weak Hawks team. Griffin should thrive in this huge up pace matchup tonight with a solid total against the Hawks in what’s projected to be a tight game.
- Rudy Gobert: I’m taking a contrarian approach to center tonight likely paying up for two big players (Griffin/Gobert), while most will pay for one of Zeller/Millsap/Powell (all great options). However, the ceiling on Griffin and Gobert are really a level above a lot of the other players on this slate and you will really differentiate yourself by paying up at center and utilizing the other high upside value options around this slate, some of which I highlighted in this article.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
