First day back from the ASB and I think it’s fair to say it was needed by all of us. My core had been on fire of late prior to the break so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Caris LeVert: LeVert may end up having some decent ownership tonight, but I say it all the time, ownership does not play that big of a factor in a sport like NBA. LeVert is an extremely volatile option with a high ceiling and has that boom or bust type play style. With that being said, his price is just way too cheap for where his minutes should be especially after the all-star break. The projections have him around 30 tonight which is essentially what he was getting per game before he went down with his injury. Now, he’s priced 2k cheaper and Spencer Dinwiddie is out. LeVert is a lock for me tonight.
- Malcolm Brogdon: Brogdon had been on a role before the all-star break consistently going for over 30 DK points. 6x is something taken for granted nowadays in DFS where the industry is so sharp, and getting someone into your lineup that has been so consistent could actually be key in GPPs when you surround them with some more volatile options. Brogdon’s minutes are not going to be changed after the all-star break and his price is down a bit at 5k. He’s a great play tonight that WILL be low owned.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Eric Gordon: 4.4k for Gordon is insane given his minutes even with Chris Paul in the lineup. If you haven’t been watching Paul has been playing a much more passive role this season and Gordon hasn’t been hurt too much when he’s in the lineup. Gordon has scored double digits in nine of his last ten games before the all-star break consistently taking around 13-15 shots per game some times even over 10 from downtown. This is the type of shooting types that will correlate to a huge game if his shot is falling. Gordon is able to contribute with peripherals whether it rebounds/assists. He really has a nice ceiling at this price tonight in a big game.
- Dwayne Wade: Wade should be a bit refreshed after the ASB and good to go for a second 3rd push for the playoffs in a pretty big eastern conference game against the Sixers. With this being the lowest implied total on the slate, players from this game are going to go under-owned (outside of Boban), but Wade has an awesome price he has shown to be able to easily produce at this season.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Marcus Morris: The Bucks frontcourt is one I’ve consistently targeted over the course of this season. Not only is this a pace up matchup for the Celtics, but Morris also went for over 30 DK points earlier in the season against this same team. This game is ironically projected to be one point lower than the total of the game back on November 1st, which may imply vegas thinks this game will play out pretty similarly. Morris is grading out very well and he’s one of those guys who won’t hurt your lineup but provides that 5-6x that can be difficult to find when navigating through all the players at SF.
- JJ Reddick: Again, this game isn’t going to be too high owned but it seems like Reddick is a bit discounted for his upside considering what he was able to accomplish in the first half of the season. Reddick’s averaging an incredible 18.6 ppg with a 45.3/39.5/90.6 shooting line. Reddic’s role didn’t change much with the addition of Tobias Harris and I’m going to be on him tonight where he’s got a high ceiling with some volatility that makes him perfect for GPPs.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Bam Adebayo/James Johnson: While I likely won’t take both of these guys in one lineup, they are both priced below 4k tonight and one of them is going to SMASH value tonight. The Sixers are projected to be rolling out a pretty big lineup with Embiid out and Boban in. Harris/Boban/Simmons/Butler are all big players and the Heat are going to be forced to match in size. I prefer Adebayo is slightly cheaper so I’m giving the edge to him where the minute’s projections is virtually identical. This Sixers team is going to have a hard time defensively tonight where one of either Adebayo or Johnson smashes. I’ll have something close to 70/30 split between the two.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Jarrett Allen: Center is always one of the chalkiest positions on the slate where the additional points for a rebound on DK are weighted more and the double-double bonus is more prominently in play. Allen has a very high ceiling and his price is actually below 5k for the first time this season. Allen is playing similair minutes to what he has been all season and should be in line for 28-32 in his first game back from the break. Allen is a consistent point per minute fantasy point producer and is one of the elite options at center today. Pairing him with Boban on Draftkings will be a common lineup construction start of mine.
- Willie Cauley-Stein: Seeing Cauley-Stein at this price point is just depressing considering how high I was on him coming into this season. WCS actually has been producing when he has gotten the minutes this year in terms of a fantasy perspective but likely contributes to the Kings being a very weak defensive team against the center position. Boogie is not trying on defense so WCS should be able to get it done on the offensive side of the floor in what should be a fantastic game to watch. The DK pricing is trying to get you off of this game, which is the highest total on the slate, but you’ll likely need some exposure if you want a big day coming back from the ASB.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
