I actually like this slate a ton. We have a lot of games and all of which project to be pretty competitive with tight spreads. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Play: Jamal Murray
Murray will be popular tonight but with so much elite value in the PG position I think he’ll fall a bit under what his true ownership should be giving us an edge by being overexposed tonight. The projections on Murray’s minutes are insane and currently has him playing over 40+ tonight with a usage rate around 27%. This is a pace up matchup for the Nuggets (surprising I know) against the Hornets this season and a + defensive assignment with Kemba Walker. At 7.1k, Murray is an amazing play at the mid tier tonight. He should be priced around 8k.
Fade: Eric Bledsoe
Bledsoe relies a ton on picking up steals to hit value and against a team like the Warriors who have amazing chemistry and don’t turn the ball over often I think this is a spot to fade Bledsoe. Bledsoe is going to have a ton of ownership tonight given this high total and tight projected game. Unless he is shooting extremely efficiently and picking up rebounds/assists in bunches I don’t see a way he’ll hit his ceiling tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Play: Josh Hart
The ownership projections I’m looking at tonight have Hart projected under 10% which is pretty remarkable when analyzing this matchup + Hart’s role on the court. Obviously the Laker’s minute totals are extremely volatile but Hart is projceting for over 30 tonight priced below 4k on Draftkings. Hart has shown his ability as a scorer at times this season and has a legitimate 10x ceiling if the stars align tonight. I love this play.
Fade: DeMar DeRozan
We faded DeRozan the other day against the Lakers and he had a legitimate ceiling game for them and just barely broke value. This isn’t going to happen again and I’m comfortable fading DeRozan for the same reasons I was off of him on Wednesday. He’s an awful GPP play at this price point.
Small Forward
Top GPP Play: Justise Winslow
If you aren’t comfortable playing Josh Hart as he is fairly scoring dependent, I love the pivot to Justise Winslow at a similair price point but someone who is a consistent contributor in various peripheral categories playing heavy minutes for the Heat. Winslow continues to gain investment from the Heat as they try to stick with him and I believe in Winslow as a player. He has insane upside at this price and has a good shot for a ceiling game tonight where the Heat are projected 110 points against a turnover-prone Suns team.
Fade: Jeremey Lamb
Lamb is a pure scorer who really doesn’t have the ball in his hands too much for the Hornets offense. However, he is the #2 option on the offense which will provide him with a healthy floor as he’s a lock for anywhere between 12 and 20 real life points. However, Lamb doesn’t offer a ton in the assist category and has finding himself lucky picking up a consistent number of steals lately leading to his price increase. I’m fine fading here.
Power Forward
Top GPP Play: Kelly Olynyk
Olynyk hasn’t been posting monster games as often this year as he finds himself getting less minute’s then he was accustomed to due to Whiteside’s constant absences last season. However, we’ve seen this before with Olynyk where Whiteside is out and he takes on a massive usage role in this offense which is why I’m disagreeing with the projections I’ve analyzed. With that being said I think Olynyk is a lock tonight and should be paired with the stone-lock Bam Adebayo in a lot of GPP lineups.
Fade: Julius Randle
7.4k for a power forward seeing under 30 minutes a game in an extremely tough defensive matchup? I’ll pass. Randle makes no sense tonight with some of the other options on this slate and with that being said I don’t love Anthony Davis too much tonight as I respect the Grizzlies front-court that much + I want ALLL the Giannis at an identical price.
Center
Top GPP Play: Mike Muscala
If for whatever reason you’re looking to fade Bam tonight you can play Mike Muscala at $400 cheaper where he’s projceted to see 30 minutes on the floor for the 76ers. Muscala is a low-usage player who will be forced on the floor to guard Blake Griffin a lot tonight. He makes sense if you’re looking to pivot off 75% owned Bam.
Fade: Serge Ibaka
People are going to run here because “bigs against Brooklyn” which just hasn’t been the case this year as Jarrett Allen is ranked one of the top rim protectors in the NBA. Ibaka is going to have to do a ton in this Raptors offense where he hasn’t been much involved to post a significant score tonight. This price is way too high for him.
Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage
