Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/5/18)
Pretty big 10 game slate tonight so looking forward to a huge night for the DFS Karma team. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Trae Young
With the mid-tier going extremely overlooked today due to the tons of value at the point guard position (Rivers, Hill, Santoransky, Morris, Burks) a guy like Trae Young who has shown ability to be on of the highest scoring point guards on the slate will be prime for the picking in your GPP lineups. Not only does Young get a nice matchup boost with Wall out tonight but this game is projected 231 over/under that should stay close according to vegas which currently has the spread -4.5 in favor of the Wizards. Young has been having some bad shooting nights of late leading to lower ownership + a suppressed price point. At 6k, attempting hopefully around 20 shots a night while owning a 30% usage rate is extremely substantial when looking for upside in GPPs. Young is a great contrarian mid-tier play tonight.
Fade: Malcolm Brogdon
The former rookie of the year Brogdon is going to see minutes tonight (around 30), but given his extremely low usage rate for a PG, it would be extremely difficult to see him producing above the 1 FP/min rate he’ll need to hit value tonight in a pace-down matchup. This price is above $800-1000 too high to consider Brogdon tonight.
Top GPP Play: Brandon Ingram
Unless you are dumpster diving in the value tier or paying up for Bradley Beal, the shooting guard position comes as a pretty weak one tonight. Brandon Ingram saves us as a SG available option on Draftkings price at just 5.5k. We know what kind of upside Ingram has flashed over the past year and as he continues to find his role in this new LeBron James Lakers, his ceiling will continue to creep up from what we’ve seen this year. He’s been surprisingly consistent ranging from 21.72 and 35 DK points in his past 10 contests which gives us some relief when plugging him in tonight that he won’t be a player that will hurt our lineups.
Fade: DeMar DeRozan
In his past 10 games, DeRozan has only hit above value at this 8.9k price tag on Draftkings twice. People are going to be high on him tonight as they chase his huge game against the Lakers earlier this season. However, DeRozan is going to need to be a substantial contributor in the peripheral categories in order to post a significant score tonight. I’m fine fading here.
Top GPP Play: Kent Bazemore
This goes against every gut feeling I’ve ever had as the #brand is to always Baze-Less. However, Bazemore is grading out so signifcantly high in the models I’ve analyzed throughout the day while projecting low ownership. I love this Hawks team this season as they have been pushing the pace and play little defense which will continue to result in Hawks players breaking the slate or being on the “perfect lineup”. Small Forward is a position I love to pay up for on this slate with Giannis/LeBron the 1A and 1B of the slate. However, if you’re looking to fill either the SG, SF, F, G, or Util spot on Draftkings I suggest getting some exposure to Bazemore as he’s easy to fit into your lineup.
Fade: Robert Covington
Covington is a “safe” play. He plays 35-40 minutes per game and is going to pick up some peripherals to help meet his 6.6k price tag. However, he is not the type of player to create space (low-usage + virtually no assists/game) and basically will need to score 20-25+ real-life points to post a significant GPP score at this price. I’m fine fading against the Hornets in one of the slate’s lower totals.
Top GPP Play: Pascal Siakam
Siakam continues to be one of the most underrated players in the NBA and in turn one of the most consistently under-owned players in NBA DFS. Siakam is a legitimate beast attempting double digit field goals per game while getting to the free-throw line A LOT. Siakam is essentially the Raptors starting center which usually provides him with a nice rebounding floor per game. He’s shown his ability passing (7 assists last game) and constantly contributes blocks/steals. I think 6.1k is a STEAL for Siakam tonight at under 10% ownership. Get on him before the rest of the DFS community catches on.
Fade: Larry Nance Jr.
Nance isn’t going to see any minutes in this game. After seeing mid 30’s in minutes he’s been trending down and now doesn’t project for more than 20 tonight. At 5.1k his price is going to have to come back down to the 4k range before we can even coniser him. He essentially has NO upside in this game unless the coach throws a curveball and throws him out there for another 35 minute matchup.
Top GPP Play: JaVale McGee
McGee is an incredible fantasy point per minute scorer and although he’s not getting into the mid 30’s like he was earlier this season, his price reflects his decreased role and in turn preserves his upside. However, McGee see’s a high usage rate for a center of his caliber and should attempt 10+ shots tonight where the double double bonus is likely. With McGee contributing a ton with blocks/steals he offers an 8x ceiling tonight.
Fade: Jarrett Allen
Simialir to how Allen struggled against Tristan Thompson the other night, Steven Adams is a big strong center that should bully Alllen in and around the paint. This significantly decreasing his rebounding and scoring upside making him close to irrelevant on this slate for me. I’m full fade.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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