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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/4/18)

There are only 5 games on this Tuesday slate so I’m going to keep my article fairly concise today.  Continue to let me know what you guys like and how you want me to relay my take on the slate.

Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Game Theory:

My first approach to a slate like this is to not differentiate too much from the elite value that you will almost need but differentiate in the “stud” tier with some lower owned options.  For reference, as of right now the value on this slate that will be extremely chalky is Derrick White, Nemanja Bjelica, Iman Shumpert, Ryan Arciadiacono, and Kosta Koufous.  When looking in this value tier make sure you don’t stray too far from these five players as you will likely need 1-2 of them in your lineup tonight.  (My favorite play is Nemanja Bjelica while the safest value play is Derrick White).  In the high tier, all of these players are going to have ownership but targeting the top tier players with the highest upside while largely ignoring matchup/pace/etc (5 game slate).  Today 3 players POP to me as high-tier GPP plays.  Everybody will likely lock in DeAndre Ayton at center, severely thinning out the ownership on other centers on the slate.  Rudy Gobert, Nikola Vucevic, and Hassan Whiteside all have just as high ceiling’s and likely a higher % chance to reach there ceiling’s.  The contrarian way to win this slate is plug in two centers as I believe you’re capturing as much upside as possible.  Side Note:  Play Ayton.  He’s an amazing play just make sure you pair another center with him or run Gobert/Vuc, Gobert/Whiteside, or Vuc/Whiteside lineups.

Top Team to get your GPP players from:

Dallas Mavericks:  This is the game I’m hoping doesn’t give us any news about who is playing until closer to there 830 game start.  With so many players questionable from the Mavericks tonight people will be scared off of them come lock and mainly ignore getting them into their lineups.  However, the Mavericks are playing at a crazy fast pace this year and are in the second highest game total on the slate.  The two players I LOVE in this spot and will likely be found in the majority of my lineups tonight are Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic.  Smith’s volatile play has led to his price stabilizing in this mid 5k range over the last month which is perfect for a GPP play on a slate like this.  To no surprise, Smith’s spikes in DK points are directly correlated to how many minute’s he saw on the floor that given night.  Tonight where the two other point guards on the roster, Luka Doncic, and JJ Barea are both questionable, Smith could be relied on for 32-35 minutes if he is cleared to play.  In addition, a similair situation applies to Luka Doncic, who is questionable tonight while the other two PG’s on the roster are as well.  If Doncic play’s he provide’s an extremely high ceiling as he rebounds like a power forward and drops dimes like a point guard while scoring as well as some of the best in the league.  Doncic is a much higher FP/min scorer than DSJ (baked into his higher price) and is one of my favorite plays on the slate if he takes the floor tonight with one of the other questionable guards sitting out.

 

Rankings will be in terms of ceiling in order.  This slate has a TON of value so it will be crucial to overexpose yourself to the highest upside players.

Point Guard

  • Lillard
  • LaVine
  • Fox
  • Doncic

Shooting Guard (very weak today)

  • DeRozan 
  • Mitchell
  • Richardson
  • McCollum
  • Hield

Small Forward

  • Bogdanovic
  • Parker
  • Jackson
  • Ariza
  • Barnes

Power Forward

  • Sabonis
  • Aldridge
  • Gordon
  • Markkanen
  • Crowder

Center (easily best position of the night)

  • Ayton
  • Whiteside
  • Gobert
  • Vucevic

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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