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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/31/18)

Short 5-game slate for New Year’s Eve.  Thank you to everyone currently reading this article.  2018 was great. 2019 will be better!  Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

 

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Dennis Schroeder: Russell Westbrook’s shot has been terrible this season and I think the Thunder are going to start to lean on the backup PG in Shroder for scoring after he has posted six games in a row in double digits off the bench.  Dennis has consistently been taking 15+ shots per game while contributing across all categories.  Although we shouldn’t expect 35 minutes out of him tonight, he should get ample opportunity to crush his price tag on just 5.4k on Draftkings.  This is a fantastic high-scoring game to target from a DFS perspective and Schroder really gets a fantastic matchup against JJ Barrea off the bench.
  2. James Harden: I’m looking at the projected ownership’s on a few different sites and am really astounded that Harden isn’t a lock to be over 20% owned tonight.  Are people not following what he has been doing on this most recent tear?  I assume people are scared off by the matchup with the Grizzlies, but Harden is as matchup-proof as they come.  I’ll take 15% Harden on a 5 game slate all day.  He’s one of the best leverage plays on the slate when comparing to some other high tiered players.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Klay Thompson: His shot will return. Klay Thompson is considered one of the best shooters, if not the best, in NBA history.  He gained some confidence the other night and he expressed that on the floor.  This soft matchup against the Suns could be one where Thompson is able to find his shot and really lay it on the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Warriors starters play all four quarters tonight even if they are up 20+ in the 4th.  This team needs it’s confidence back.  Klay could post a massive score tonight at minimal ownership at a tougher position if you aren’t paying up.
  2. Marcus Smart:  Marcus Smart’s price is accounting for his lack of offensive production.  However, he is seeing game’s where his shots spike above 10 attempts and in those games he is making the most of his opportunities.  Smart is going to contribute in the steal category.  The last game he didn’t record at least one steal was November 16th, over a month ago.  He usually contributes multiple steals per night.  If we can get a spiked night in shot attempts + a solid defensive outing from Smart which is typical, he could easily go for over 30 DK points.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Josh Jackson: Josh Jackson is a player I love after riding him towards the end of the Suns season last year where he won me a LOT of money in NBA DFS.  Jackson is an explosive player who is able to do it all but has his inconsistencies due to his young age and inexperience in the NBA.  This matchup against the Warriors is one that Jackson should thrive in with a lot of scoring projected. At 4.1k projected for over 25 minutes tonight, Jackson makes for one of my favorite plays on the slate.
  2. Gordon Hayward: It truly is sad that Gordon Hayward hasn’t really found his game yet on this Celtics team but this is a former star coming off a major injury.  People expecting him to come right back into the NBA as a star player after sitting out a year with a gruesome injury are just unrealistic.  Hayward will return and at this price on Draftkings, given the minutes he’s playing, if he is able to post a competent offensive shooting night he could easily hit for 7-8x.  He’s a lock for at least 25 DK points tonight.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Draymond Green: I’m high on this Warriors team while everyone is down on them.  This is still the greatest team ever assembled and you better believe the dubs are going to explode in a game very soon.  In addition to Klay, Draymond’s offensive game has really been off this season.  If he is able to post a productive game on offense, he could crush value given what he does in the peripheral categories.
  2. Kevin Looney (punt):  Looney is a clear punt off a Kleber at the exact same price on Draftkings.  While I do think Kleber is the “better play” (for cash games), Looney definitely has a higher ceiling and offers that upside at 1/4 of the ownership.

 

 

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. DeAndre Ayton: Ayton is clearly showing why he was a top pick in this past year’s draft as he’s been dominating the paint in the NBA since the start of the season (the most recent feat of scoring 24 points in ONE QUARTER!).  Ayton is an offensive force in a positive matchup in a pace up game.  Notably, he has averaged 1.33 FP/min over the past month (3rd at the C position) which is up there with KAT and Anthony Davis.  Ayton at 7.3k is a steal on this slate.
  2. Marc Gasol: Gasol is always a player who goes under-owned in NBA DFS because he plays for a small market team and isn’t explosive.  However, Gasol gets the job done and is an extremely efficient offensive player for his brand as a defensive center.  Gasol posts a higher usage rate + more minutes per game than Ayton, while I don’t think his ceiling is quite as high, he is likely to hit 6x tonight with ease.

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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